01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Paris FC to win48%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Ligue 1Stade Jean-Bouin, Paris10°11 km/h
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Paris FCBalanced & physical4–3
RennesBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Paris FC (48%)
Paris FC vs Rennes · Ligue 1
1 · Paris FC 48%X 27%25% Rennes · 2
48%
27%
25%
Prediction summary
Final score 4–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Paris FC vs Rennes (Ligue 1, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Paris FC win 48%, draw 27%, Rennes win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Paris FC 1.73, Rennes 1.27. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Paris FC or draw 75%, Rennes or draw 52%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Paris FC – Rennes
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: Paris FC may feel this is their moment. With a model probability tipping in their favor at 48%, the odds suggest that the hosts have a strong chance to reverse the trend against Rennes, despite their 0-2 record in the small head-to-head sample since 2022. The home side's balanced, physical style is well matched to counter Rennes, who play similarly. The tension lies in whether Paris can capitalize on their expected goals advantage, with 1.73 projected for them against Rennes's 1.27. This could well be a game of fine margins.
It's crucial to consider the expected goals against (xGA), where Paris shines with just 0.72 per match compared to Rennes's leaky 1.7. This defensive solidity might prove decisive against a visiting side that's slightly better at creating chances. Paris’s ability to absorb pressure before striking on the counter could see them edge a tight contest. Given the odds of a 58% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability for both teams scoring, the game might not be devoid of action, but it seems poised for a low-scoring victor.
The model's numbers lean towards a narrow victory for the home side, suggesting either a 1-0 or 2-1 outcome, with the latter being more probable. Despite Rennes holding a slight edge in points, Paris's superior xPoints and defensive robustness could see them snatch all three points here. The bookies may slightly underestimate this, presenting value on Paris at odds of 2.35 with LeoVegas — a solid 13% edge.
For those willing to back the model’s lean, the value bet on a Paris victory stands out. With LeoVegas offering odds of 2.35, and the model's confidence at 48%, there's a compelling argument for backing the hosts to finally overcome Rennes.
Paris FCForm WWDWL
League ranking xG #8xGA #1xT #10xP/match #2Points #5
Key players
- Ilan KebbalRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.16
- Maxime LopezCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.15
- Pierre Lees-MelouCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
RennesForm WWWLW
League ranking xG #5xGA #14xT #2xP/match #10Points #2
Key players
- Przemyslaw FrankowskiRBxG 0.08 · xT 0.20
- Valentin RongierCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
- Estéban LepaulFxG 0.67 · xT 0.00
Final score
4 – 3
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Paris FC 48% · Draw 27% · Rennes 25%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Paris FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,46fair 6,41-15 %
HitMatchresultat - RennesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,54fair 11,93-28 %
MissMatch prediction: Paris FC – Rennes
Predicted score matrix
Rennes →
Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.3%
0–16.0%
0–24.0%
0–31.7%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–08.3%
1–111.2%
1–26.9%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.5%
2–19.5%
2–26.0%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–04.3%
3–15.5%
3–23.5%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.8%
4+–13.5%
4+–22.2%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.2-07%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,73–1,27
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@2.29
Over 2,558%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Paris FC to win48%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Lassine Fanta Mady Sinayoko to score39%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Lassine Fanta Mady Sinayoko to score39%
- Adrien Thomasson to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Paris FC48% probability@2.15LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds
- 1 · Paris FC48% probability@2.14PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
- 1 · Paris FC48% probability@2.12BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Paris FC | X | 2 · Rennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 2.12 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 3% 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 2.12 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 3% 2.14 | 3.65 | 3.44 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Paris FC win since 9 October — the odds have shortened from 2.34 to 2.14 (−9%).
1-9 %
48 %38 %
2.34 → 2.14
X+13 %
33 %23 %
3.22 → 3.65
2+8 %
34 %24 %
3.18 → 3.44
Over 2,5+1 %
62 %52 %
1.66 → 1.68
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesParis FC 0Draw 0Rennes 2
Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Paris FC
Rennes
Paris FC (8–4)
Rennes (12–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Paris FC
Rennes
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Paris FC
Rennes
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Paris FC | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 13 |
| xPoints | 10.8 | 7.8 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 0.72 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.46 | 0.4 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.1 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Paris FC | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.73 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.85 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 536 | 416 |
| Passes against per match | 485 | 387 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.6 | 28.2 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Paris FC | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 6.2 |
| Corners against per match | 3.5 | 6.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| Other | Paris FC | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Kevin Trapp (Paris FC) | Brice Samba (Rennes) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 19 |
| Save % | 81% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 71% | 55% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Paris FC vs Rennes according to our model?
The model gives Paris FC a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Paris FC 48%, draw 27%, Rennes 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Paris FC vs Rennes?
The model expects 1.73 goals (xG) for Paris FC and 1.27 for Rennes, 3.00 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Paris FC or draw (1X) 75%, Rennes or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.