Lille vs Brest: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

Ligue 117 October 2026Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille11°2,0 mm19 km/h

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LilleCounter-attacks & crosses

1–1

BrestBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Lille (49%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.47 (+2 %)

1 · Lille 49%X 25%27% Brest · 2

49%

25%

27%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lille vs Brest (Ligue 1, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Lille win 49%, draw 25%, Brest win 27%. Expected goals (xG): Lille 1.70, Brest 1.11. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Lille or draw 73%, Brest or draw 51%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Lille – Brest

Erik Lindberg · 16 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Fifty-seven percent: that's the historical home win rate for Lille, and on paper, they edge this contest with a 49% chance of victory. Yet, Brest isn't coming to this clash as mere spectators. Despite Lille's slight points advantage, Brest wins the xPoints battle 10.9 to 8.8, and boast a superior xG per match at 2.0 compared to the hosts' 1.3.

The head-to-head record is only four games deep, and it's split evenly. Lille tends to prefer counter-attacks and crosses, while Brest's balanced and physical style could thrive under forecasted damp conditions. The weather might dampen goal scoring, but the model still suggests a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a decent 55% likelihood that both sides find the net.

With Lille's chances seemingly baked into the odds, there's a curious contradiction here: the model's 27% win probability for Brest suggests value in backing the visitors with Betsafe, LeoVegas, or Nordicbet, all offering 3.9 odds. Given the numbers and the weather, the tight 1-1 (12%) scoreline looms large, yet the true value might just lie in Brest making the most of their xG edge.

Lille

Form DWWLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #14xP/match #5Points #3

Key players

Tiago Carvalho SantosRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.21
Nabil BentalebCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
Ayase UedaRWxG 0.64 · xT 0.08

Brest

Form DWLLW

League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #8xP/match #1Points #7

Key players

Ludovic AjorqueFxG 0.36 · xT 0.06
Romain Del CastilloRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.24
Mama BaldeRWxG 0.40 · xT 0.11

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Lille 49% · Draw 25% · Brest 27%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - LilleBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,90fair 6,91-15 %

Miss

Matchresultat - BrestBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,41fair 16,16-36 %

Miss

Match prediction: Lille – Brest

Predicted score matrix

Brest →

Lille →

0–06.4%

0–16.4%

0–23.7%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–09.9%

1–111.7%

1–26.3%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.7%

2–19.7%

2–25.3%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–04.9%

3–15.5%

3–23.0%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.1%

4+–13.4%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,70–1,11

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.15EV+1%

Over 2,553%

@1.76

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lille to win49%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lille to win49%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Benjamin Michel Édouard André to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Ludovic Ajorque to score25%
Joris Jean-Claude Jacques Chotard to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.569% probability@1.47LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
Under 2.547% probability@2.15PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
Under 4.585% probability@1.18LeoVegasEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lille	X	2 · Brest
Betsafe	1.98	3.55	3.60
LeoVegas	2.02	3.65	3.55
Nordicbet	1.98	3.55	3.60
Pinnacle	2.03	3.70	3.67

Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Brest win since 15 October — the odds have shortened from 4.01 to 3.67 (−8%).

1+9 %

52 %47 %

1.86 → 2.03

X-6 %

28 %23 %

3.93 → 3.70

2-8 %

27 %22 %

4.01 → 3.67

Over 2,5+5 %

59 %54 %

1.68 → 1.76

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Lille 1Draw 2Brest 1

Goals: 7–7 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

Key facts

LOSC Lille win 57% of their home matches all-time (37 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lille

Brest

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lille (9–4)

Brest (12–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lille

Brest

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lille

Brest

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lille	Brest
Points	13	8
xPoints	8.8	10.9
xG per match	1.3	2
xGA per match	1.5	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.33

Playing style	Lille	Brest
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.29
Field tilt	0.35	0.44
xT per match	0.86	1.1
xTA per match	1.2	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	22	33
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.2
Entries into the box per match	14	15
Entries into the box against	15	13
Pass completion %	0.8	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.7
Passes per match	389	353
Passes against per match	438	389
Switches of play per match	20.9	32.8
Long balls per match	26	42

Set pieces	Lille	Brest
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.13
Corners per match	3	5.3
Corners against per match	5.4	3.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.48

Other	Lille	Brest
Throw-in control	0.57	0.66

The goalkeepers	Berke Özer (Lille)	Egil Selvik (Brest)
Saves	20	17
Save %	87%	68%
xG prevented	91%	33%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lille

Fixtures, form & tips

Brest

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lille vs Brest according to our model?

The model gives Lille a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lille 49%, draw 25%, Brest 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Lille vs Brest?

The model expects 1.70 goals (xG) for Lille and 1.11 for Brest, 2.81 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Lille or draw (1X) 73%, Brest or draw (X2) 51% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.