Darmstadt vs Magdeburg Prediction: Away win 41% (31 Oct 2026)

2. Bundesliga31 October 2026Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Darmstadt7°11 km/h

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DarmstadtLow block & direct

MagdeburgCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Magdeburg (41%)

1 · Darmstadt 33%X 27%41% Magdeburg · 2

33%

27%

41%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Darmstadt vs Magdeburg (2. Bundesliga, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Darmstadt win 33%, draw 27%, Magdeburg win 41%. Expected goals (xG): Darmstadt 1.28, Magdeburg 1.66. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Darmstadt or draw 59%, Magdeburg or draw 67%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Darmstadt – Magdeburg

Erik Lindberg · 23 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Darmstadt's defense has been porous this season, conceding an average of 1.7 expected goals against per match. Their defensive frailties might be further exposed as they face a Magdeburg side known for their counter-attacks and crosses. With only 7 points to their name compared to Magdeburg's 13, the hosts find themselves on the back foot both in terms of form and playing style.

The head-to-head record since 2023 doesn't paint a promising picture for Darmstadt either. Although the sample is small, with just four matches, the hosts haven't secured a victory, managing only two draws while losing the other two encounters. This history aligns with the model's probabilities, which give Magdeburg a 41% chance of triumph—a noticeable edge over Darmstadt's 33%.

Expected goals further underscore the challenge for Darmstadt, with Magdeburg registering a higher xG of 1.66 compared to Darmstadt's 1.28. The visitors also boast a slightly better xPoints tally (9.0) than the hosts (8.9), indicating a consistent edge in overall performance this season. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 suggest a tight contest but lean toward a Magdeburg victory, especially given their proficiency in exploiting defensive gaps.

Given the numbers, this match seems more likely to edge over 2.5 goals, with a 57% probability, and a 59% chance of both teams finding the net. The attacking intent of Magdeburg and the defensive vulnerabilities of Darmstadt could lead to an open game. While no outcome is guaranteed, the model's lean toward Magdeburg reflects the visitors' favorable position in this matchup.

Darmstadt

Form LWLWL

League ranking xG #18xGA #14xT #18xP/match #18Points #17

Key players

Florian KleinhanslLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
Ho-Jae LeeRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.02
Kai KlefischCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.02

Magdeburg

Form LWDWL

League ranking xG #17xGA #11xT #9xP/match #17Points #6

Key players

Barış-Fahri AtikLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.20
Anselmo García MacNultyCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
Moritz-Broni KwartengCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Darmstadt – Magdeburg

Predicted score matrix

Magdeburg →

Darmstadt →

0–05.6%

0–18.4%

0–27.3%

0–34.0%

0–4+2.4%

1–06.4%

1–111.5%

1–29.3%

1–35.2%

1–4+3.1%

2–04.3%

2–17.2%

2–26.0%

2–33.3%

2–4+2.0%

3–01.8%

3–13.1%

3–22.6%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.0-27%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,28–1,66

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

–

Over 2,557%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Magdeburg or draw (X2)71%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Magdeburg or draw (X2)71%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Mateusz Żukowski to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Mateusz Żukowski to score28%
Luka-Mikael Hyryläinen to be booked21%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Darmstadt 0Draw 2Magdeburg 2

Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Darmstadt

Magdeburg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Darmstadt (8–18)

Magdeburg (14–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Darmstadt

Magdeburg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Darmstadt

Magdeburg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Darmstadt	Magdeburg
Points	7	13
xPoints	8.9	9
xG per match	0.92	1.1
xGA per match	1.7	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.35	0.2

Playing style	Darmstadt	Magdeburg
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.33	0.49
xT per match	0.66	0.97
xTA per match	1.4	0.94
Won balls, offensive half	26	21
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.21
Entries into the box per match	9	11
Entries into the box against	20	11
Pass completion %	0.75	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.75
Passes per match	325	437
Passes against per match	452	357
Switches of play per match	21.9	48.7
Long balls per match	27	51

Set pieces	Darmstadt	Magdeburg
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.01
Corners per match	4.8	5.4
Corners against per match	7.4	4
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.53

Other	Darmstadt	Magdeburg
Throw-in control	0.71	0.78

The goalkeepers	Marcel Schuhen (Darmstadt)	Dominik Reimann (Magdeburg)
Saves	31	30
Save %	63%	73%
xG prevented	39%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Darmstadt

Fixtures, form & tips

Magdeburg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Darmstadt vs Magdeburg according to our model?

The model gives Magdeburg a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Darmstadt 33%, draw 27%, Magdeburg 41%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Darmstadt vs Magdeburg?

The model expects 1.28 goals (xG) for Darmstadt and 1.66 for Magdeburg, 2.95 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Darmstadt or draw (1X) 59%, Magdeburg or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.