Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel Prediction: Home win 45% (31 Oct 2026)

2. Bundesliga31 October 2026Sportpark Ronhof, Fürth5°6 km/h

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Greuther FürthCounter-attacks & crosses

Holstein KielPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Greuther Fürth (45%)

1 · Greuther Fürth 45%X 26%30% Holstein Kiel · 2

45%

26%

30%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel (2. Bundesliga, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Greuther Fürth win 45%, draw 26%, Holstein Kiel win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Greuther Fürth 1.71, Holstein Kiel 1.43. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Double chance: Greuther Fürth or draw 70%, Holstein Kiel or draw 55%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Greuther Fürth – Holstein Kiel

Oscar Nilsson · 23 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Two prior encounters between Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel in 2023 don't yield a clear favorite, with each team having won one match apiece. However, a mere two games is a small sample size and weighs less in our analysis than recent form and expected goals data. With a model probability giving the hosts a 45% chance of victory against Kiel's 30%, the odds favor Fürth, albeit only slightly.

The metrics underpinning this matchup reveal intriguing nuances. Fürth's counter-attacking prowess, particularly their ability to generate an xG of 0.19 within eight seconds of winning the ball, suggests they can exploit any lapse in Kiel's possession-oriented play. Despite this, Kiel's superior defense, with an xGA of 1.4 per match compared to Fürth's 1.6, offers a counterbalance. This tug-of-war between Fürth's attacking flair and Kiel's defensive resilience is reflected in the expected goals: 1.71 for Fürth and 1.43 for Kiel.

In terms of goals, the model leans towards a scoreline with over 2.5 goals at 61%, and both teams have a 63% chance to find the net. Despite Kiel's preference for controlling play, the likelihood of both sides scoring underlines the potential for moments of chaos and counter-attacks, especially from Fürth. The most likely scorelines at 1-1 and 2-1 also suggest a closely fought contest.

Given the model's leaning towards a Fürth victory and their slightly stronger form, the analytical edge points towards the hosts, making them the sharper side to consider in this matchup.

Greuther Fürth

Form LDDLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #13xP/match #10Points #9

Key players

Felix KlausFxG 0.61 · xT 0.17
Lukas ReichRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.24
Luca ItterLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.16

Holstein Kiel

Form DLDLD

League ranking xG #13xGA #6xT #5xP/match #14Points #18

Key players

Phil HarresFxG 0.59 · xT 0.00
Adrián KaprálikFxG 0.17 · xT 0.20
Jonas MeffertCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Greuther Fürth – Holstein Kiel

Predicted score matrix

Holstein Kiel →

Greuther Fürth →

0–04.7%

0–15.9%

0–24.4%

0–32.1%

0–4+1.0%

1–07.1%

1–110.9%

1–27.6%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.8%

2–06.3%

2–19.0%

2–26.5%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.6%

3–15.1%

3–23.7%

3–31.8%

3–4+0.9%

4+–02.3%

4+–13.2%

4+–22.3%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.2-26%

Expected goals

1,71–1,43

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

–

Over 2,561%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Greuther Fürth or draw (1X)68%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Greuther Fürth or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Olé Pohlmann to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Phil Harres to score23%
Sacha Jordan Bansé to be booked22%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Greuther Fürth 1Draw 0Holstein Kiel 1

Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Greuther Fürth

Holstein Kiel

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Greuther Fürth (12–13)

Holstein Kiel (7–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Greuther Fürth

Holstein Kiel

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Greuther Fürth

Holstein Kiel

The teams in numbers

Performance	Greuther Fürth	Holstein Kiel
Points	9	5
xPoints	10.7	9.8
xG per match	1.4	1.4
xGA per match	1.6	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.28

Playing style	Greuther Fürth	Holstein Kiel
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.28
Field tilt	0.45	0.6
xT per match	0.91	1.2
xTA per match	1.2	0.97
Won balls, offensive half	21	30
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.29
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	14	11
Pass completion %	0.77	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.72
Passes per match	358	391
Passes against per match	368	305
Switches of play per match	27.9	19.7
Long balls per match	38	29

Set pieces	Greuther Fürth	Holstein Kiel
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.13
Corners per match	6	5.5
Corners against per match	5.7	5
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.48	0.47

Other	Greuther Fürth	Holstein Kiel
Throw-in control	0.74	0.78

The goalkeepers	Florian Pascal Hellstern (Greuther Fürth)	Timon Moritz Weiner (Holstein Kiel)
Saves	37	25
Save %	74%	71%
xG prevented	68%	68%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Greuther Fürth

Fixtures, form & tips

Holstein Kiel

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel according to our model?

The model gives Greuther Fürth a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Greuther Fürth 45%, draw 26%, Holstein Kiel 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?

The model expects 1.71 goals (xG) for Greuther Fürth and 1.43 for Holstein Kiel, 3.14 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Greuther Fürth or draw (1X) 70%, Holstein Kiel or draw (X2) 55% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.