Energie Cottbus vs Bochum Prediction: Home win 42% (30 Oct 2026)

2. Bundesliga30 October 2026Stadion der Freundschaft, Cottbus7°9 km/h

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Energie CottbusCounter-attacks & crosses

BochumPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Energie Cottbus (42%)

1 · Energie Cottbus 42%X 25%33% Bochum · 2

42%

25%

33%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Energie Cottbus vs Bochum (2. Bundesliga, Friday, 30 October 2026): Energie Cottbus win 42%, draw 25%, Bochum win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Energie Cottbus 1.71, Bochum 1.71. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. Double chance: Energie Cottbus or draw 67%, Bochum or draw 58%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Energie Cottbus – Bochum

Erik Lindberg · 23 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Bochum's recent slump, losing three consecutive matches, adds a layer of intrigue to their clash with Energie Cottbus. Despite the visitors' possession-based style, they've struggled to convert control into points. The model's slight lean towards the hosts isn't surprising given their recent form and superior league position. Yet, both teams come into this match with an expected goals tally of 1.71, suggesting parity in their offensive capabilities.

Cottbus, favoring counter-attacks and crossing, seem poised to exploit any defensive lapses from Bochum. They edge ahead slightly in xG per match at 1.6 compared to Bochum's 1.4, indicating a marginally more potent attack. However, their defensive vulnerabilities are notable, with an xGA of 2.1, substantially higher than Bochum's 1.4. This defensive frailty could be the Achilles' heel for the home side, especially against a team desperate to halt their losing streak.

Despite Cottbus having a slight edge in current standings with 9 points to Bochum's 7, the xPoints suggest Bochum have been unlucky, with a potential for 9.6 points compared to Cottbus' 9.2. This underlines the visitors' potential to bounce back, provided they can tighten their backline and capitalize on possession.

In terms of goals, the probability favors a high-scoring affair, with a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% likelihood of both teams finding the net. The most probable scorelines of 1-1 or 2-1 to either side reflect this. In such a context, betting markets present potential value with over 2.5 goals, considering the offensive tendencies and defensive weaknesses on display.

Ultimately, the hosts are marginal favorites, but the numbers and Bochum's latent potential suggest a draw or a narrow win for either side. For those looking for a more secure play, focusing on the goals market might be the prudent choice.

Energie Cottbus

Form DWDLD

League ranking xG #7xGA #18xT #10xP/match #16Points #10

Key players

Dominik PelivanCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
Jannis BoziarisCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.01
King ManuCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.08

Bochum

Form WDLLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #7xT #8xP/match #15Points #16

Key players

Maximilian WittekLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
Mats PannewigCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.06
Karol MetsCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Energie Cottbus – Bochum

Predicted score matrix

Bochum →

Energie Cottbus →

0–03.5%

0–15.3%

0–24.8%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.7%

1–05.3%

1–19.8%

1–28.2%

1–34.7%

1–4+2.9%

2–04.8%

2–18.2%

2–27.0%

2–34.0%

2–4+2.5%

3–02.7%

3–14.7%

3–24.0%

3–32.3%

3–4+1.4%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.9%

4+–22.5%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.9%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.2-27%
5.0-15%

Expected goals

1,71–1,71

Both teams to score

67%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

219%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,534%

@2.70

Over 2,566%

@1.42

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Energie Cottbus or draw (1X)62%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Energie Cottbus or draw (1X)62%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Tolcay Ciğerci to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score67%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Tolcay Ciğerci to score21%
Tom Meyer to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Energie Cottbus42% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
1 · Energie Cottbus42% probability@2.52NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
1 · Energie Cottbus42% probability@2.50LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Energie Cottbus	X	2 · Bochum
Betsafe	EV+ 5% 2.52	3.65	2.35
LeoVegas	EV+ 4% 2.50	3.75	2.35
Nordicbet	EV+ 5% 2.52	3.65	2.35

Odds updated 23 Oct, 20:37

Statistics

Key facts

Bochum have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Energie Cottbus

Bochum

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Energie Cottbus (16–17)

Bochum (5–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Energie Cottbus

Bochum

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Energie Cottbus

Bochum

The teams in numbers

Performance	Energie Cottbus	Bochum
Points	9	7
xPoints	9.2	9.6
xG per match	1.6	1.4
xGA per match	2.1	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.24

Playing style	Energie Cottbus	Bochum
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.59	0.56
xT per match	0.97	1.1
xTA per match	1.2	0.8
Won balls, offensive half	22	31
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.32
Entries into the box per match	13	11
Entries into the box against	14	12
Pass completion %	0.77	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.73
Passes per match	369	423
Passes against per match	327	327
Switches of play per match	27.8	22.6
Long balls per match	32	35

Set pieces	Energie Cottbus	Bochum
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.09
Corners per match	7.1	5.8
Corners against per match	5.7	4.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.08
First touch, offensive corners %	0.54	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.8

Other	Energie Cottbus	Bochum
Throw-in control	0.72	0.75

The goalkeepers	Marcel Lotka (Energie Cottbus)	Timo Phil Horn (Bochum)
Saves	32	20
Save %	67%	69%
xG prevented	44%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Energie Cottbus

Fixtures, form & tips

Bochum

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Energie Cottbus vs Bochum according to our model?

The model gives Energie Cottbus a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Energie Cottbus 42%, draw 25%, Bochum 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Energie Cottbus vs Bochum?

The model expects 1.71 goals (xG) for Energie Cottbus and 1.71 for Bochum, 3.42 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Energie Cottbus or draw (1X) 67%, Bochum or draw (X2) 58% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.