01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance St. Pauli or draw (1X)69%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
2. BundesligaMillerntor-Stadion, Hamburg7°12 km/h
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St. PauliPossession & high pressvs
NürnbergPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · St. Pauli (40%)
St. Pauli vs Nürnberg · 2. Bundesliga
1 · St. Pauli 40%X 26%34% Nürnberg · 2
40%
26%
34%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for St. Pauli vs Nürnberg (2. Bundesliga, Saturday, 31 October 2026): St. Pauli win 40%, draw 26%, Nürnberg win 34%. Expected goals (xG): St. Pauli 1.52, Nürnberg 1.27. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: St. Pauli or draw 66%, Nürnberg or draw 60%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: St. Pauli – Nürnberg
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Thirteen games unbeaten for Nürnberg against St. Pauli's five-game run without a loss sets the stage for a tense face-off. The visitors hold a points advantage—18 to the hosts' 11—but when diving into expected data, it's St. Pauli who slightly edges out on xPoints, 10.9 to 10.6. Though Nürnberg has been the more prolific in terms of expected goals per match (1.7 to St. Pauli's 1.2), their defense has been more porous, conceding an average of 1.5 xGA compared to St. Pauli's 1.1.
St. Pauli's high press might unsettle Nürnberg's possession control, but the visitors have consistently found the net in 13 consecutive games. The model leans toward a St. Pauli win at 40%, but the scorelines suggest a tighter contest: the 1-1 draw is the most likely at 12%, with 1-0 and 2-1 to St. Pauli each at 9%. Both teams are likely to score (56% probability), with a slight lean over 2.5 goals at 53%.
This matchup seems finely balanced, and for those eyeing value, the bookmakers offer an intriguing St. Pauli to win at odds that might just edge positive expected value, given the model's lean. However, with Nürnberg's impressive streak, a cautious nod to a 1-1 draw seems most prudent.
St. PauliForm DWDWD
League ranking xG #16xGA #2xT #6xP/match #7Points #7
Key players
- Eric SmithCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
- David NemethCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
- Arkadiusz PyrkaRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.19
NürnbergForm DWWDD
League ranking xG #3xGA #10xT #2xP/match #11Points #2
Key players
- Mohamed Ali ZomaLWxG 0.56 · xT 0.17
- Adam MarkhievCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.12
- Alexis KalogeropoulosCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: St. Pauli – Nürnberg
Predicted score matrix
Nürnberg →
St. Pauli →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.5%
0–17.5%
0–25.0%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–09.0%
1–112.2%
1–27.5%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.1%
2–19.0%
2–25.7%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.6%
3–14.5%
3–22.9%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.4%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,52–1,27
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
–
Over 2,553%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance St. Pauli or draw (1X)69%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Louis Oppie to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Piet Lasse Scobel to score22%
- Javier Fernandez Gonzalez to be booked25%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Key facts
- FC St. Pauli are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
- FC St. Pauli have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
- 1. FC Nurnberg are unbeaten in their last 13 league matches.
- 1. FC Nurnberg have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
St. Pauli
Nürnberg
St. Pauli (11–9)
Nürnberg (21–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
St. Pauli
Nürnberg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
St. Pauli
Nürnberg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | St. Pauli | Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 18 |
| xPoints | 10.9 | 10.6 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | St. Pauli | Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 367 | 417 |
| Passes against per match | 403 | 289 |
| Switches of play per match | 18 | 26.1 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 34 |
| Set pieces | St. Pauli | Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 5.6 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.46 |
| Other | St. Pauli | Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Ben Alexander Voll (St. Pauli) | Jan Reichert (Nürnberg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 23 |
| Save % | 79% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 65% | 51% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Energie Cottbus – Bochum30 October 2026
- Wolfsburg – Osnabrück31 October 2026
- Kaiserslautern – Hertha Berlin31 October 2026
- Darmstadt – Magdeburg31 October 2026
- Hannover 96 – Dynamo Dresden31 October 2026
- Karlsruhe – Heidenheim31 October 2026
- Greuther Fürth – Holstein Kiel31 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins St. Pauli vs Nürnberg according to our model?
The model gives St. Pauli a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Pauli 40%, draw 26%, Nürnberg 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in St. Pauli vs Nürnberg?
The model expects 1.52 goals (xG) for St. Pauli and 1.27 for Nürnberg, 2.79 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
St. Pauli or draw (1X) 66%, Nürnberg or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.