Karlsruhe vs Heidenheim Prediction: Away win 39% (31 Oct 2026)

2. Bundesliga31 October 2026BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruhe7°10 km/h

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KarlsruhePossession control

HeidenheimPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Heidenheim (39%)Soft draw

1 · Karlsruhe 38%X 23%39% Heidenheim · 2

38%

23%

39%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Karlsruhe vs Heidenheim (2. Bundesliga, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Karlsruhe win 38%, draw 23%, Heidenheim win 39%. Expected goals (xG): Karlsruhe 1.64, Heidenheim 1.56. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: Karlsruhe or draw 61%, Heidenheim or draw 62%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Karlsruhe – Heidenheim

Marcus Johansson · 23 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The small head-to-head sample size limits its reliability — this is not supported by the facts, as no head-to-head data was provided.

Bet365 odds of 1.85 for over 2.5 goals — this is not supported by the facts, as no betting odds were provided.

Corrected text:

A razor-thin margin separates Karlsruhe and Heidenheim in this matchup, a fact underscored by the model probabilities that give the visitors a slight edge with a 39% chance to win compared to the hosts' 38%. This parity is mirrored in expected goals, with Karlsruhe at 1.64 and Heidenheim close behind at 1.56. Both teams prefer to dominate possession, setting the stage for a tactical duel where control of the ball could dictate the outcome.

Heidenheim's superior points tally (14 vs. Karlsruhe's 8) and their better xG (1.7) and xGA (1.3) per match provide them with a tangible advantage. However, Karlsruhe's strength lies in their quick transition play, generating more xG within eight seconds of winning the ball (0.39) compared to Heidenheim's 0.32. This suggests the hosts might exploit Heidenheim's occasional vulnerability during transitions, potentially catching them off guard with swift attacks.

Given the high probability of both teams finding the net (64%) and over 2.5 goals (62%), a lively match seems probable. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 2-1 suggest a competitive contest, with little to separate the two sides. Current form and tactical execution will likely play a significant role in deciding the outcome.

While the model leans towards Heidenheim, Karlsruhe's home advantage and their knack for seizing transitional moments can't be ignored. This could easily tip the balance, making a 1-1 draw a plausible outcome, with a slight tilt towards over 2.5 goals due to the attacking potential both teams possess.

Karlsruhe

Form DLLLW

League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #16xP/match #5Points #13

Key players

Marvin WanitzekCAMxG 0.19 · xT 0.20
Sebastian JungRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.15
Marcel FrankeCBxG 0.28 · xT 0.00

Heidenheim

Form WWDDL

League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #7xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

Marvin PieringerFxG 0.22 · xT -0.04
Jonas FöhrenbachCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
Marcel CostlyFxG 0.25 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Karlsruhe – Heidenheim

Predicted score matrix

Heidenheim →

Karlsruhe →

0–04.4%

0–16.1%

0–25.0%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.4%

1–06.4%

1–110.7%

1–28.1%

1–34.2%

1–4+2.3%

2–05.5%

2–18.6%

2–26.7%

2–33.5%

2–4+1.9%

3–03.0%

3–14.7%

3–23.6%

3–31.9%

3–4+1.0%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.8%

4+–22.2%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.2-27%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,64–1,56

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

–

Over 2,562%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Heidenheim or draw (X2)60%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Heidenheim or draw (X2)60%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Budu Zivzivadze to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Budu Zivzivadze to score20%
Deniz Emre Ofli to be booked24%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Karlsruhe

Heidenheim

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Karlsruhe (10–14)

Heidenheim (15–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Karlsruhe

Heidenheim

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Karlsruhe

Heidenheim

The teams in numbers

Performance	Karlsruhe	Heidenheim
Points	8	14
xPoints	12.2	12.2
xG per match	1.5	1.7
xGA per match	1.4	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0.32
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.21

Playing style	Karlsruhe	Heidenheim
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.49	0.4
xT per match	0.77	1.1
xTA per match	0.88	0.82
Won balls, offensive half	27	27
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.3
Entries into the box per match	13	14
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.73	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.66
Passes per match	315	291
Passes against per match	379	338
Switches of play per match	17.8	31
Long balls per match	28	44

Set pieces	Karlsruhe	Heidenheim
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.09
Corners per match	6.6	5.2
Corners against per match	5.1	7
xG per corner	0.02	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.39	0.61

Other	Karlsruhe	Heidenheim
Throw-in control	0.74	0.72

The goalkeepers	Hans Christian Bernat (Karlsruhe)	Thomas Dähne (Heidenheim)
Saves	30	25
Save %	68%	76%
xG prevented	46%	67%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Karlsruhe

Fixtures, form & tips

Heidenheim

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Karlsruhe vs Heidenheim according to our model?

The model gives Heidenheim a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Karlsruhe 38%, draw 23%, Heidenheim 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Karlsruhe vs Heidenheim?

The model expects 1.64 goals (xG) for Karlsruhe and 1.56 for Heidenheim, 3.20 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Karlsruhe or draw (1X) 61%, Heidenheim or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.