2. BundesligaBremer Brücke, Osnabrück17°5,5 mm16 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    OsnabrückOsnabrückPossession control
    vs
    Hertha BerlinHertha BerlinPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Osnabrück (40%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.70 (+33 %)

    Osnabrück – Hertha Berlin · 2. Bundesliga

    1 · Osnabrück 40%X 31%29% Hertha Berlin · 2

    Analysis: Osnabrück – Hertha Berlin

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Hertha Berlin arrives at this match with a streak of four consecutive wins, showcasing their current dominance. Yet, despite their impressive run, the model surprisingly leans towards Osnabrück, with a 40% chance of victory for the hosts. This tension between recent form and model predictions sets the stage for a tightly contested match.

    Osnabrück's style, characterized by possession control, aligns with Hertha's game plan, suggesting midfield battles could define the match. The home side's expected goals (xG) stands at 1.44, slightly ahead of Hertha's 1.06, indicating a slight edge in attacking potential. However, the visitors' superior points and expected points tally, as well as their stronger defense with an xGA of 1.2 compared to Osnabrück's 1.8, hint at a balanced contest.

    Breaking it down further, the model's most likely scorelines—1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (11%)—point to a closely fought encounter. The over 2.5 goals probability of 46% and a 50% chance for both teams to score underscore the uncertainty in predicting a high-scoring affair. Given both teams' styles and defensive structures, goals might be at a premium.

    While Hertha Berlin holds the form advantage, the model suggests a more restrained outcome in line with Osnabrück's possession-heavy approach. The odds for under 1.5 goals at 4.5 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a tantalizing value proposition. The model rates this outcome at 28%, providing a noteworthy 28% edge for those willing to back a low-scoring game. In a match where defenses may cancel each other out, this under bet could well be the sharpest angle.

    OsnabrückOsnabrück
    Form LLWW
    League ranking xG #12xGA #14xT #16xP/match #9Points #8
    Key players
    • Ismail BadjieFxG 0.13 · xT -0.01
    • David KopaczCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.00
    • Konrad Johannes Karl FaberFxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
    Hertha BerlinHertha Berlin
    Form LWWWW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #9xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Sebastian GronningFxG 0.56 · xT -0.03
    • Marten WinklerRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.06
    • Josip BrekaloLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.10

    Match prediction: Osnabrück – Hertha Berlin

    Predicted score matrix

    Hertha Berlin →
    Osnabrück →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.6%
    0–18.3%
    0–24.6%
    0–31.6%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–011.4%
    1–112.9%
    1–26.6%
    1–32.3%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–08.5%
    2–19.0%
    2–24.8%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–04.1%
    3–14.3%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–02.0%
    4+–12.1%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.2-09%
    Expected goals
    1,44–1,06
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @2.35EV+28%
    Over 2,546%
    @1.52

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Osnabrück or draw (1X)73%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.83

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Osnabrück or draw (1X)73%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Robin Maximilian Meißner to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Robin Maximilian Meißner to score22%
    • Márton Dárdai to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.528% probability@4.70BetsafeEV+33%reference odds
    • Under 1.528% probability@4.70BetssonEV+33%reference odds
    • Under 1.528% probability@4.70NordicbetEV+33%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · OsnabrückX2 · Hertha Berlin
    Betfair Exchange
    EV+ 25%
    3.15
    EV+ 20%
    3.85    		2.18
    Betsafe
    EV+ 21%
    3.05
    EV+ 9%
    3.50    		2.08
    Betsson
    EV+ 21%
    3.05
    EV+ 9%
    3.50    		2.08
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 21%
    3.05
    EV+ 9%
    3.50    		2.08
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 30%
    3.29
    EV+ 19%
    3.83    		2.06

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:34

    Odds movement

    1+3 %
    32 %27 %

    3.18 → 3.29

    X+3 %
    28 %23 %

    3.72 → 3.83

    2-4 %
    48 %43 %

    2.14 → 2.06

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Hertha BSC Berlin come into this round on 4 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Osnabrück
    Hertha Berlin
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Osnabrück (7–8)
    Hertha Berlin (12–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Osnabrück
    Robin Fabinski: 148 passningar, xT 0.32FabinskiJannik Muller: 143 passningar, xT 0.25MullerBjarke Jacobsen: 108 passningar, xT 0.19JacobsenPatrick Kammerbauer: 104 passningar, xT 0.58KammerbauerNiklas Wiemann: 103 passningar, xT 0.25WiemannFridolin Wagner: 102 passningar, xT 0.23WagnerJonas Krumrey: 78 passningar, xT 0.13KrumreyRobin Meissner: 64 passningar, xT 0.2MeissnerAdrian Beck: 63 passningar, xT 0.08BeckKonrad Johannes Karl Faber: 60 passningar, xT 0.15FaberIsmail Badjie: 50 passningar, xT -0.01Badjie
    Hertha Berlin
    Linus Gechter: 182 passningar, xT 0.31GechterNiklas Kolbe: 139 passningar, xT 0.62KolbePaul Seguin: 138 passningar, xT 0.16SeguinJosip Brekalo: 109 passningar, xT 0.32BrekaloJulian Eitschberger: 101 passningar, xT 0.42EitschbergerMarius Gersbeck: 100 passningar, xT 0.2GersbeckKevin Sessa: 92 passningar, xT 0.01SessaSoufian Gouram: 48 passningar, xT 0.03GouramDeyovaisio Zeefuik: 46 passningar, xT 0.13ZeefuikSebastian Gronning: 32 passningar, xT -0.15GronningMarten Winkler: 32 passningar, xT 0.09Winkler
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Osnabrück
    Robin Fabinski: 148 passningar, xT 0.32FabinskiJannik Muller: 143 passningar, xT 0.25MullerBjarke Jacobsen: 108 passningar, xT 0.19JacobsenPatrick Kammerbauer: 104 passningar, xT 0.58KammerbauerNiklas Wiemann: 103 passningar, xT 0.25WiemannFridolin Wagner: 102 passningar, xT 0.23WagnerJonas Krumrey: 78 passningar, xT 0.13KrumreyRobin Meissner: 64 passningar, xT 0.2MeissnerAdrian Beck: 63 passningar, xT 0.08BeckKonrad Johannes Karl Faber: 60 passningar, xT 0.15FaberIsmail Badjie: 50 passningar, xT -0.01Badjie
    Hertha Berlin
    Linus Gechter: 182 passningar, xT 0.31GechterNiklas Kolbe: 139 passningar, xT 0.62KolbePaul Seguin: 138 passningar, xT 0.16SeguinJosip Brekalo: 109 passningar, xT 0.32BrekaloJulian Eitschberger: 101 passningar, xT 0.42EitschbergerMarius Gersbeck: 100 passningar, xT 0.2GersbeckKevin Sessa: 92 passningar, xT 0.01SessaSoufian Gouram: 48 passningar, xT 0.03GouramDeyovaisio Zeefuik: 46 passningar, xT 0.13ZeefuikSebastian Gronning: 32 passningar, xT -0.15GronningMarten Winkler: 32 passningar, xT 0.09Winkler

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceOsnabrückHertha Berlin
    Points612
    xPoints5.77.1
    xG per match1.61.8
    xGA per match1.81.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.110.35
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.320.15
    Playing styleOsnabrückHertha Berlin
    Build-up efficiency0.320.32
    Field tilt0.410.5
    xT per match0.780.92
    xTA per match1.10.85
    Won balls, offensive half2227
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.270.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.27
    Entries into the box per match1117
    Entries into the box against1511
    Pass completion %0.690.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.620.66
    Passes per match295279
    Passes against per match480335
    Switches of play per match11.219.6
    Long balls per match3033
    Set piecesOsnabrückHertha Berlin
    xG from free kicks0.010.14
    Corners per match3.85.9
    Corners against per match6.35
    xG per corner0.120.04
    xGA per corner against0.040.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.530.58
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.8
    OtherOsnabrückHertha Berlin
    Throw-in control0.710.79
    The goalkeepersJonas Krumrey (Osnabrück)Marius Gersbeck (Hertha Berlin)
    Saves1614
    Save %67%74%
    xG prevented40%61%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Osnabrück
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Hertha Berlin
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Osnabrück vs Hertha Berlin according to our model?

    The model gives Osnabrück a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Osnabrück 40%, draw 31%, Hertha Berlin 29%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    BochumBochum
    0–1
    Hertha BerlinHertha Berlin
    1 43%X 28%2 29%
    The model missed the outcome
    DarmstadtDarmstadt
    2–2
    Holstein KielHolstein Kiel
    1 49%X 24%2 27%
    The model missed the outcome
    WolfsburgWolfsburg
    0–0
    KaiserslauternKaiserslautern
    1 43%X 29%2 28%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.