Hansa Rostock vs VfB Stuttgart II: Prediction & Odds (16 Sept 2026)

3. Liga16 September 202615°2,1 mm20 km/h

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Hansa RostockPossession control

VfB Stuttgart IIPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Hansa Rostock (60%)

1 · Hansa Rostock 60%X 21%19% VfB Stuttgart II · 2

60%

21%

19%

Analysis: Hansa Rostock – VfB Stuttgart II

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

FC Hansa Rostock enter this match on a solid unbeaten streak, having not lost in their last seven league outings. The model gives them a 60% chance to continue their run against VfB Stuttgart II. Despite both teams preferring possession control, the hosts' higher expected goals per match of 1.9 versus the visitors' 0.99 suggests they should dominate the offensive play. Rostock's ability to consistently find the net, evidenced by scoring in eight consecutive games, further tilts the balance in their favor.

The head-to-head record supports Rostock as well, though the sample size of four matches since 2024 is modest. Still, the home side's three wins and one draw in these encounters bolster their case. Stuttgart II, on the other hand, have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.9 xGA per match, which could be their undoing again. A 2-1 scoreline appears the most probable outcome, with a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% likelihood of both teams scoring.

For bettors, the safest play aligns with the model's preference for a Rostock win. Given the data, this favorite holds more value than chasing higher odds on riskier outcomes.

Hansa Rostock

Form WWDWD

League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #14xP/match #4Points #3

Key players

Florian CarstensCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.13
Bernie LennemannRWxG 0.35 · xT 0.09
Leon DajakuLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.28

VfB Stuttgart II

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #19xGA #18xT #11xP/match #21Points #7

Key players

Nicolas SessaRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.20
Oliver RölkeFxG 0.33 · xT -0.05
Alexander GroissCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Hansa Rostock – VfB Stuttgart II

Predicted score matrix

VfB Stuttgart II →

Hansa Rostock →

0–03.5%

0–13.7%

0–22.4%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.4%

1–06.8%

1–19.0%

1–25.4%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.8%

2–19.6%

2–25.9%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.0%

3–05.7%

3–17.1%

3–24.4%

3–31.8%

3–4+0.7%

4+–05.3%

4+–16.6%

4+–24.0%

4+–31.7%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.1-19%
3.2-08%
4.3-17%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

2,21–1,23

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,533%

–

Over 2,567%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hansa Rostock to win60%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hansa Rostock to win60%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Emil Frost Holten to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Emil Frost Holten to score32%
Samuele Di Benedetto to be booked25%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Hansa Rostock 3Draw 1VfB Stuttgart II 0

Goals: 10–4 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.

Key facts

FC Hansa Rostock are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
FC Hansa Rostock have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hansa Rostock

VfB Stuttgart II

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hansa Rostock (11–8)

VfB Stuttgart II (6–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hansa Rostock

VfB Stuttgart II

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hansa Rostock

VfB Stuttgart II

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hansa Rostock	VfB Stuttgart II
Points	8	6
xPoints	6.6	2.3
xG per match	1.9	0.99
xGA per match	1.2	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.12

Playing style	Hansa Rostock	VfB Stuttgart II
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.32
Field tilt	0.57	0.62
xT per match	0.97	1
xTA per match	0.91	0.67
Won balls, offensive half	28	21
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.2
Entries into the box per match	15	12
Entries into the box against	11	10
Pass completion %	0.73	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.71
Passes per match	328	373
Passes against per match	306	282
Switches of play per match	22.2	25
Long balls per match	41	33

Set pieces	Hansa Rostock	VfB Stuttgart II
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.05
Corners per match	6.2	5.3
Corners against per match	4	6.1
xG per corner	0.09	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.56	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.69	0.67

Other	Hansa Rostock	VfB Stuttgart II
Throw-in control	0.78	0.71

The goalkeepers	Luca Unbehaun (Hansa Rostock)	Jerik von der Felsen (VfB Stuttgart II)
Saves	9	11
Save %	53%	65%
xG prevented	37%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hansa Rostock

Fixtures, form & tips

VfB Stuttgart II

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hansa Rostock vs VfB Stuttgart II according to our model?

The model gives Hansa Rostock a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hansa Rostock 60%, draw 21%, VfB Stuttgart II 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.