Duisburg vs SV Havelse: Prediction & Odds (15 Sept 2026)

3. Liga15 September 202619°6,3 mm13 km/h

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DuisburgCounter-attacks & crosses

SV HavelseCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Duisburg (74%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.25 (+20 %)

1 · Duisburg 74%X 16%10% SV Havelse · 2

74%

16%

Analysis: Duisburg – SV Havelse

Anna Karlsson · 10 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

In a season marked by consistent performances, Duisburg's recent streak of four consecutive victories sets the stage for their clash against SV Havelse. The team from Duisburg has been a formidable force at home, winning a remarkable 76% of their matches. Their tactical prowess on the counterattack and proficiency in creating chances via crosses is well-documented, aligning perfectly with the model's hefty 74% win probability for the hosts. This makes the betting markets lean heavily in Duisburg's favor.

The expected goals metrics further underscore the disparity between the two sides. Duisburg's xG of 2.49 suggests a robust attacking display, while Havelse's modest 0.77 xG hints at their potential struggles to penetrate a defense that concedes just 0.75 xGA per match. These numbers paint a clear picture of a likely one-sided affair, where Duisburg is anticipated to dominate both possession and scoring opportunities.

While both teams favor a counterattacking style, the similarity in tactics may not level the playing field. Duisburg's superior execution and their edge in xPoints (8.9 compared to Havelse's 3.4) highlight a significant gap in quality and form. The most probable scoreline of 2-0 aligns with these insights, suggesting a comfortable win for the hosts, with the potential for more goals given their recent attacking form.

Considering the statistical probabilities, a bet on Duisburg to win, particularly at odds reflecting their dominant position, appears to offer value. For those assessing odds, Duisburg's form and tactical edge make them a solid choice. The over 2.5 goals market, with a 63% probability, also presents a compelling option, particularly if you find attractive odds from bookmakers. In summary, all data and form indicators point towards a decisive Duisburg victory, with the potential for multiple goals on a rainy evening.

Duisburg

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #12xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Lex Tyger LobingerFxG 0.70 · xT -0.02
Can Beklan CoşkunLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
Tobias FlecksteinCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.06

SV Havelse

Form WL

League ranking xG #14xGA #2xT #17xP/match #3Points #17

Key players

Jesse Edem TugbenyoFxG 0.23 · xT 0.01
Kwasi Okyere WriedtFxG 0.26 · xT -0.01
Kevin SchumacherLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Duisburg – SV Havelse

Predicted score matrix

SV Havelse →

Duisburg →

0–04.1%

0–12.7%

0–21.1%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–09.4%

1–17.6%

1–22.8%

1–30.7%

1–4+0.2%

2–011.9%

2–19.2%

2–23.5%

2–30.9%

2–4+0.2%

3–09.9%

3–17.6%

3–22.9%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–011.2%

4+–18.6%

4+–23.3%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.3-010%
3.1-09%
4.2-19%
5.3-18%

Expected goals

2,49–0,77

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@3.25EV+20%

Over 2,563%

@1.29

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Duisburg to win74%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Duisburg to win74%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Conor Noß to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Conor Noß to score26%
Dennis Duah to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.537% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
Under 2.537% probability@3.25BetssonEV+20%reference odds
Under 2.537% probability@3.25NordicbetEV+20%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Duisburg	X	2 · SV Havelse
Betsafe	1.24	5.90	8.80
Betsson	1.24	5.90	8.80
Nordicbet	1.24	5.90	8.80

Odds updated 10 Sept, 17:37

Statistics

Key facts

MSV Duisburg come into this round on 4 straight wins.
MSV Duisburg win 76% of their home matches all-time (21 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Duisburg

SV Havelse

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Duisburg (12–3)

SV Havelse (4–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Duisburg

SV Havelse

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Duisburg

SV Havelse

The teams in numbers

Performance	Duisburg	SV Havelse
Points	12	3
xPoints	8.9	3.4
xG per match	2.1	1.3
xGA per match	0.75	0.87
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.1	0.14

Playing style	Duisburg	SV Havelse
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.23
Field tilt	0.44	0.27
xT per match	0.97	0.8
xTA per match	0.9	0.71
Won balls, offensive half	26	16
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.17
Entries into the box per match	15	10
Entries into the box against	9	13
Pass completion %	0.74	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.68
Passes per match	299	293
Passes against per match	390	356
Switches of play per match	21.4	20
Long balls per match	34	36

Set pieces	Duisburg	SV Havelse
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.03
Corners per match	7	3.5
Corners against per match	4.2	4
xG per corner	0.07	0
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.54	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.5

Other	Duisburg	SV Havelse
Throw-in control	0.75	0.76

The goalkeepers	Maximilian Braune (Duisburg)	Yannick Mausehund (SV Havelse)
Saves	8	2
Save %	73%	100%
xG prevented	68%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Duisburg

Fixtures, form & tips

SV Havelse

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Duisburg vs SV Havelse according to our model?

The model gives Duisburg a 74% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Duisburg 74%, draw 16%, SV Havelse 10%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.