SV Havelse vs Grossaspach: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

3. Liga12 September 2026

SV HavelseCounter-attacks & crosses

GrossaspachCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Grossaspach (45%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.92 (+5 %)

Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

1 · SV Havelse 28%X 27%45% Grossaspach · 2

28%

27%

45%

Analysis: SV Havelse – Grossaspach

Anna Karlsson · 11 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

A 45% likelihood for Grossaspach to triumph over SV Havelse paints a relatively clear picture of tomorrow's clash. The visitors are poised as the favorites, both by traditional metrics and advanced numbers. Grossaspach’s attacking prowess, evidenced by their 1.8 expected goals per match, suggests they will be the more threatening side. Meanwhile, Havelse’s lower expected goals of 1.3 per match hints at a challenge in breaking down Grossaspach's defense effectively.

Despite Havelse's solid defensive record, conceding only 0.87 expected goals against per game, the home side's chances hinge on their ability to repel Grossaspach's attacking waves while striking efficiently on the counter. However, with Grossaspach’s ability to mirror Havelse's counter-attacking style, they might just have the upper hand in exploiting any defensive lapses.

With both teams relying on similar tactics of counter-attacks and crosses, the match could develop into a tactical standoff. However, the numbers favor Grossaspach slightly, with a higher expected goals tally and more points accrued so far in the season. The most probable outcome might be a 1-2 victory for the visitors, aligning with the model's suggestion of a 9% likelihood for this scoreline. The potential for goals is heightened, with a 65% probability of going over 2.5 goals and both teams finding the net.

The clear betting angle zeros in on Grossaspach's away win, which offers value at odds of 2.25 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. As the model rates this outcome at 45%, bettors have a 1% edge to leverage. Grossaspach's slight advantage in form and expected output makes backing them a calculated play.

SV Havelse

Form WL

League ranking xG #14xGA #2xT #17xP/match #3Points #17

Key players

Jesse Edem TugbenyoFxG 0.23 · xT 0.01
Kwasi Okyere WriedtFxG 0.26 · xT -0.01
Kevin SchumacherLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.15

Grossaspach

Form WLLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #17xT #1xP/match #10Points #8

Key players

Marlon Freddy FaßFxG 0.44 · xT 0.01
Fabian EiseleFxG 0.72 · xT 0.06
Christian MistlCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: SV Havelse – Grossaspach

Predicted score matrix

Grossaspach →

SV Havelse →

0–03.8%

0–16.6%

0–26.6%

0–34.2%

0–4+3.2%

1–04.7%

1–19.9%

1–29.3%

1–36.0%

1–4+4.5%

2–03.5%

2–16.8%

2–26.6%

2–34.2%

2–4+3.2%

3–01.7%

3–13.2%

3–23.1%

3–32.0%

3–4+1.5%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.5%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-29%
3.2-17%
4.0-27%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,41–1,93

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,535%

@2.45

Over 2,565%

@1.49

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Grossaspach to win45%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Grossaspach to win45%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Tim Rossmann to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Alexander Guiddir to score33%
Marius Kunde to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw27% probability@3.92PinnacleEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · SV Havelse	X	2 · Grossaspach
Betsafe	3.00	3.60	2.05
Betsson	3.00	3.60	2.05
Nordicbet	3.00	3.60	2.05
Pinnacle	3.12	EV+ 5% 3.92	2.06

Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:29

Odds movement

1+6 %

35 %30 %

2.94 → 3.12

X+3 %

27 %22 %

3.79 → 3.92

2-4 %

46 %41 %

2.14 → 2.06

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

SV Havelse

Grossaspach

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

SV Havelse (4–4)

Grossaspach (2–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

SV Havelse

Grossaspach

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

SV Havelse

Grossaspach

The teams in numbers

Performance	SV Havelse	Grossaspach
Points	3	6
xPoints	3.4	5.9
xG per match	1.3	1.8
xGA per match	0.87	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.21

Playing style	SV Havelse	Grossaspach
Build-up efficiency	0.23	0.33
Field tilt	0.27	0.65
xT per match	0.8	1.6
xTA per match	0.71	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	16	27
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.36
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.32
Entries into the box per match	10	22
Entries into the box against	13	14
Pass completion %	0.72	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.68
Passes per match	293	375
Passes against per match	356	286
Switches of play per match	20	22.4
Long balls per match	36	35

Set pieces	SV Havelse	Grossaspach
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.03
Corners per match	3.5	6.5
Corners against per match	4	5.5
xG per corner	0	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.68

Other	SV Havelse	Grossaspach
Throw-in control	0.76	0.73

The goalkeepers	Yannick Mausehund (SV Havelse)	Maximilian Reule (Grossaspach)
Saves	2	16
Save %	100%	84%
xG prevented	100%	86%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

SV Havelse

Fixtures, form & tips

Grossaspach

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins SV Havelse vs Grossaspach according to our model?

The model gives Grossaspach a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: SV Havelse 28%, draw 27%, Grossaspach 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.