3. Liga19°13 km/h

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    Rot-Weiss EssenRot-Weiss EssenPossession control
    vs
    Wurzburger KickersWurzburger KickersPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Rot-Weiss Essen (67%)
    Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

    Rot-Weiss Essen – Wurzburger Kickers · 3. Liga

    1 · Rot-Weiss Essen 67%X 19%14% Wurzburger Kickers · 2

    Analysis: Rot-Weiss Essen – Wurzburger Kickers

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT:

    With a model probability of 67% favoring Rot-Weiss Essen, the hosts are clearly expected to have the upper hand against Wurzburger Kickers. The most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 2-1 suggest a scenario where Essen's possession control comes into play, reflecting their tendency to win 57% of home matches. Their xG of 1.5 per match, compared to Wurzburger's 1.4, indicates a slight edge in offensive capability, complemented by a more solid defensive xGA of 1.1 to the visitors' 1.3.

    Current season form and expected goals are reliable indicators for this clash. Both teams favor possession-based football, which might lead to a tactical midfield battle. However, with Essen's higher expected goals and a model leaning towards an over 2.5 goals at 63%, the match could still see some action in both penalty areas. The prediction leans towards a 2-0 or 2-1 finish in favor of the hosts.

    From a betting perspective, there is a significant value in backing Essen at odds of 1.72 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet, offering a 16% edge based on the model's confidence in a home victory. This well-underlined value forms the sharpest angle for those looking to place a wager.

    Rot-Weiss EssenRot-Weiss Essen
    Form WLWDW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #3xT #5xP/match #6Points #6
    Key players
    • Ben HuningCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
    • Janne SietanCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
    • Max GeschwillCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
    Wurzburger KickersWurzburger Kickers
    Form DWLL
    League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #18xP/match #7Points #14
    Key players
    • Tarsis BongaFxG 0.51 · xT 0.06
    • Ivan FranjicLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.02
    • David AbrangaoLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.19

    Match prediction: Rot-Weiss Essen – Wurzburger Kickers

    Predicted score matrix

    Wurzburger Kickers →
    Rot-Weiss Essen →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.1%
    0–13.3%
    0–21.6%
    0–30.5%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–08.7%
    1–18.5%
    1–23.8%
    1–31.2%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–010.5%
    2–19.7%
    2–24.4%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–08.2%
    3–17.6%
    3–23.5%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–08.4%
    4+–17.7%
    4+–23.5%
    4+–31.1%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-011%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-18%
    5. 5.3-08%
    Expected goals
    2,35–0,92
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,537%
    @2.38
    Over 2,563%
    @1.65EV+3%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Rot-Weiss Essen to win67%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    60%

    Fair odds

    1.66

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Rot-Weiss Essen to win67%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Ramien Safi to score36%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Ramien Safi to score36%
    • Daniel Hagele to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Rot-Weiss Essen67% probability@1.65BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
    • 1 · Rot-Weiss Essen67% probability@1.65BetssonEV+11%reference odds
    • 1 · Rot-Weiss Essen67% probability@1.65NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Rot-Weiss EssenX2 · Wurzburger Kickers
    Betsafe
    EV+ 11%
    1.65    		3.754.40
    Betsson
    EV+ 11%
    1.65    		3.754.40
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 11%
    1.65    		3.754.40
    Paddy Power
    EV+ 6%
    1.57    		4.004.50
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 11%
    1.65    		4.144.59

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:31

    Odds movement

    1-4 %
    58 %53 %

    1.72 → 1.65

    X+5 %
    26 %21 %

    3.94 → 4.14

    2+11 %
    24 %19 %

    4.14 → 4.59

    Over 2,5-1 %
    59 %54 %

    1.66 → 1.65

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Rot-Weiss Essen win 57% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Rot-Weiss Essen
    Wurzburger Kickers
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Rot-Weiss Essen (4–5)
    Wurzburger Kickers (7–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Rot-Weiss Essen
    Max Geschwill: 214 passningar, xT 0.62GeschwillBen Huning: 179 passningar, xT 0.3HuningJakob Golz: 130 passningar, xT 0.27GolzJanne Sietan: 126 passningar, xT 0.16SietanJannik Hofmann: 119 passningar, xT 0.62HofmannFranci Clarck Bouebari Kitsamoutse: 101 passningar, xT 0.83KitsamoutseTony Menzel: 86 passningar, xT -0.14MenzelNoah Phil Pesch: 57 passningar, xT 0.37PeschSemir Telalović: 40 passningar, xT 0.36TelalovićMarvin Ayhan Obuz: 32 passningar, xT 0.33ObuzMichał Kostka: 31 passningar, xT 0.09Kostka
    Wurzburger Kickers
    Daniel Hagele: 161 passningar, xT 0.27HageleEbrahim Farahnak: 135 passningar, xT 0.27FarahnakJohann Hipper: 114 passningar, xT 0.25HipperDavid Kinsombi: 96 passningar, xT 0.01KinsombiLiam Omore: 95 passningar, xT 0.64OmoreLeo Eberle: 93 passningar, xT 0.17EberleDavid Abrangao: 86 passningar, xT 0.52AbrangaoIvan Franjic: 75 passningar, xT 0.04FranjicTarsis Bonga: 71 passningar, xT 0.23BongaNamrud Embaye: 56 passningar, xT -0.06EmbayeXaver Kiefersauer: 55 passningar, xT -0.02Kiefersauer
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Rot-Weiss Essen
    Max Geschwill: 214 passningar, xT 0.62GeschwillBen Huning: 179 passningar, xT 0.3HuningJakob Golz: 130 passningar, xT 0.27GolzJanne Sietan: 126 passningar, xT 0.16SietanJannik Hofmann: 119 passningar, xT 0.62HofmannFranci Clarck Bouebari Kitsamoutse: 101 passningar, xT 0.83KitsamoutseTony Menzel: 86 passningar, xT -0.14MenzelNoah Phil Pesch: 57 passningar, xT 0.37PeschSemir Telalović: 40 passningar, xT 0.36TelalovićMarvin Ayhan Obuz: 32 passningar, xT 0.33ObuzMichał Kostka: 31 passningar, xT 0.09Kostka
    Wurzburger Kickers
    Daniel Hagele: 161 passningar, xT 0.27HageleEbrahim Farahnak: 135 passningar, xT 0.27FarahnakJohann Hipper: 114 passningar, xT 0.25HipperDavid Kinsombi: 96 passningar, xT 0.01KinsombiLiam Omore: 95 passningar, xT 0.64OmoreLeo Eberle: 93 passningar, xT 0.17EberleDavid Abrangao: 86 passningar, xT 0.52AbrangaoIvan Franjic: 75 passningar, xT 0.04FranjicTarsis Bonga: 71 passningar, xT 0.23BongaNamrud Embaye: 56 passningar, xT -0.06EmbayeXaver Kiefersauer: 55 passningar, xT -0.02Kiefersauer

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRot-Weiss EssenWurzburger Kickers
    Points74
    xPoints6.66.6
    xG per match1.51.4
    xGA per match1.11.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.280.4
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.020.24
    Playing styleRot-Weiss EssenWurzburger Kickers
    Build-up efficiency0.320.36
    Field tilt0.50.45
    xT per match1.20.72
    xTA per match0.831.2
    Won balls, offensive half2825
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.290.23
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.17
    Entries into the box per match147
    Entries into the box against812
    Pass completion %0.740.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.66
    Passes per match306299
    Passes against per match341369
    Switches of play per match2217.2
    Long balls per match4230
    Set piecesRot-Weiss EssenWurzburger Kickers
    xG from free kicks0.010.01
    Corners per match5.83.2
    Corners against per match4.53.8
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.350.23
    First touch, defensive corners %0.780.67
    OtherRot-Weiss EssenWurzburger Kickers
    Throw-in control0.830.74
    The goalkeepersJakob Golz (Rot-Weiss Essen)Johann Hipper (Wurzburger Kickers)
    Saves1215
    Save %71%68%
    xG prevented35%37%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Rot-Weiss Essen
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Wurzburger Kickers
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Rot-Weiss Essen vs Wurzburger Kickers according to our model?

    The model gives Rot-Weiss Essen a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rot-Weiss Essen 67%, draw 19%, Wurzburger Kickers 14%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.