Verl vs SV Meppen: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

3. Liga12 September 202617°14 km/h

VerlPossession control

SV MeppenCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Verl (64%)

Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

1 · Verl 64%X 21%15% SV Meppen · 2

64%

21%

15%

Analysis: Verl – SV Meppen

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

In a small head-to-head sample since 2024, Verl and SV Meppen have yet to establish a firm historical pattern. The data suggests that current form and expected goals are more telling for this clash. While SV Meppen has garnered more points and higher xPoints so far—6 to Verl's 3 and 6.0 to 3.3 respectively—the model heavily favors Verl, assigning them a 64% chance to win.

Verl’s playing style leans towards possession control, which contrasts with Meppen’s counter-attack and cross-heavy approach. Despite the visitors' edge in xG per match (1.6 vs. Verl's 0.96), Meppen’s defensive vulnerability could be their undoing. Verl's expected goals against per match of 1.9 highlights their own defensive concerns, but they are expected to score with an xG of 2.29 in this match-up.

The likelihood of more than 2.5 goals stands at 63%, suggesting an open game where both teams are expected to find the net. The model's most likely scorelines, 2-0 and 2-1, back this, hinting at a narrow win for the hosts. The probability of both teams scoring is also significant at 55%, reinforcing the expectation of a competitive contest.

For bettors, the standout angle is the value on a Verl victory. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 2.08, which represents a 34% edge based on the model’s 64% win probability for Verl. This makes backing the home side at these odds an enticing proposition, aligning both statistical probability and market inefficiency.

Verl

Form WLLLW

League ranking xG #20xGA #19xT #15xP/match #20Points #19

Key players

André LeipoldLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.04
Felix VoglerCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
Tim HeikeFxG 0.46 · xT -0.01

SV Meppen

Form LWWL

League ranking xG #8xGA #13xT #2xP/match #9Points #9

Key players

Richard MeierFxG 0.29 · xT -0.03
Luca PrasseRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.28
Oliver Issa SchmittFxG 0.15 · xT 0.25

Match prediction: Verl – SV Meppen

Predicted score matrix

SV Meppen →

Verl →

0–04.2%

0–13.5%

0–21.8%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–08.7%

1–18.8%

1–24.1%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.2%

2–19.8%

2–24.7%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.8%

3–17.4%

3–23.5%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–07.6%

4+–17.3%

4+–23.5%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.1-19%
4.1-09%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,29–0,95

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.50

Over 2,563%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Verl to win64%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Verl to win64%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Julian Stark to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Julian Stark to score32%
Ersin Zehir to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Verl64% probability@2.16PinnacleEV+39%reference odds
1 · Verl64% probability@2.08BetsafeEV+34%reference odds
1 · Verl64% probability@2.08BetssonEV+34%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Verl	X	2 · SV Meppen
Betsafe	EV+ 34% 2.08	3.55	3.00
Betsson	EV+ 34% 2.08	3.55	3.00
Nordicbet	EV+ 34% 2.08	3.55	3.00
Paddy Power	EV+ 11% 1.73	3.80	3.80
Pinnacle	EV+ 39% 2.16	4.10	2.83

Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:29

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an SV Meppen win since 9 September — the odds have shortened from 3.24 to 2.83 (−13%).

1+12 %

51 %41 %

1.93 → 2.16

X0 %

28 %18 %

4.08 → 4.10

2-13 %

36 %26 %

3.24 → 2.83

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Verl

SV Meppen

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Verl (5–10)

SV Meppen (6–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Verl

SV Meppen

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Verl

SV Meppen

The teams in numbers

Performance	Verl	SV Meppen
Points	3	6
xPoints	3.3	6
xG per match	0.96	1.6
xGA per match	1.9	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.26

Playing style	Verl	SV Meppen
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.35
Field tilt	0.62	0.4
xT per match	0.88	1.3
xTA per match	1.3	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	18	21
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.24
Entries into the box per match	10	14
Entries into the box against	16	15
Pass completion %	0.8	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.64
Passes per match	427	286
Passes against per match	288	316
Switches of play per match	20.8	17.6
Long balls per match	28	37

Set pieces	Verl	SV Meppen
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.07
Corners per match	3	6.8
Corners against per match	4.2	6
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.25	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.41	0.54

Other	Verl	SV Meppen
Throw-in control	0.75	0.7

The goalkeepers	Timo Schlieck (Verl)	Julius Pünt (SV Meppen)
Saves	14	11
Save %	58%	55%
xG prevented	32%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Verl

Fixtures, form & tips

SV Meppen

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Verl vs SV Meppen according to our model?

The model gives Verl a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Verl 64%, draw 21%, SV Meppen 15%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.