3. Liga

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    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim IITSG 1899 Hoffenheim IICounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    SC Fortuna KolnSC Fortuna KolnCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II (52%)
    Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II – SC Fortuna Koln · 3. Liga

    1 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 52%X 24%24% SC Fortuna Koln · 2

    Analysis: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II – SC Fortuna Koln

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT: With TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II standing at a 52% chance of winning, they enter this matchup against SC Fortuna Koln as solid favorites. The hosts' edge is clear in both actual and expected performance metrics, suggesting a potential victory. They have secured 6 points compared to Koln's 4, and their xPoints also outshine the visitors at 4.5 against 2.6. This numerical superiority lays a strong foundation for Hoffenheim II's advantage.

    Both teams lean heavily on counter-attacks and crosses, hinting at a tactical battle defined by quick transitions and aerial duels. However, Hoffenheim II's higher xG per match of 1.5 to Koln's 1.0 illustrates greater attacking proficiency. Moreover, the hosts' defense appears more robust with an xGA of 1.2 compared to Koln's leaky 1.9, indicating that Hoffenheim II not only scores more but also concedes less.

    The model suggests a 2-1 scoreline as the most probable outcome, followed closely by a 1-1 draw or a 2-0 victory for the hosts. Given the expected goals—Hoffenheim II at 2.09 and Koln at 1.31—and the high likelihood of both teams scoring (64%), a result with over 2.5 goals (66% probability) seems plausible. Yet, with both teams deploying similar tactics, the match may hinge on who executes their counter-attacks more efficiently.

    Current form and expected goals strongly back Hoffenheim II as the likely victors, with a high-scoring game on the cards.

    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim IITSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Form LWW
    League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #15xP/match #8Points #4
    Key players
    • Jakov DedićFxG 0.19 · xT 0.01
    • Blessing MakandaRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.00
    • Florian Peter MichelerCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.18
    SC Fortuna KolnSC Fortuna Koln
    Form LDW
    League ranking xG #20xGA #18xT #12xP/match #19Points #10
    Key players
    • Kevin BrechmannRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
    • Adrian StanilewiczCAMxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
    • Nico ThierLWxG 0.36 · xT 0.15

    Match prediction: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II – SC Fortuna Koln

    Predicted score matrix

    SC Fortuna Koln →
    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.6%
    0–14.1%
    0–22.9%
    0–31.3%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–06.7%
    1–19.4%
    1–26.0%
    1–32.6%
    1–4+1.1%
    2
    2–07.3%
    2–19.5%
    2–26.3%
    2–32.7%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–05.1%
    3–16.6%
    3–24.4%
    3–31.9%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–04.3%
    4+–15.6%
    4+–23.7%
    4+–31.6%
    4+–4+0.7%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-110%
    2. 2.1-19%
    3. 3.2-07%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.3-17%
    Expected goals
    2,09–1,31
    Both teams to score
    64%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,4
    Under 2,534%
    @2.50
    Over 2,566%
    @1.50

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II to win52%
    • Over 1.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.08

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II to win52%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Yasin Zor to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score64%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Yasin Zor to score26%
    • Georg Strauch to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II52% probability@2.15Paddy PowerEV+12%reference odds
    • 1 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II52% probability@2.12PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim IIX2 · SC Fortuna Koln
    Paddy Power
    EV+ 12%
    2.15    		3.602.75
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 11%
    2.12    		3.553.14

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:06

    Odds movement

    10 %
    47 %42 %

    2.12 → 2.12

    X0 %
    29 %24 %

    3.56 → 3.55

    20 %
    32 %27 %

    3.15 → 3.14

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    SC Fortuna Koln
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II (9–4)
    SC Fortuna Koln (3–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Valentin Lassig: 183 passningar, xT 0.27LassigSean Dulic: 180 passningar, xT 0.33DulicMatthew Moore: 137 passningar, xT 0.62MooreLúkas Jóhannes Blöndal Petersson: 110 passningar, xT 0.09PeterssonFlorian Peter Micheler: 73 passningar, xT 0.46MichelerKlaus Gjasula: 72 passningar, xT 0.15GjasulaTristan Spranger: 67 passningar, xT 0.12SprangerBlessing Makanda: 56 passningar, xT 0MakandaDiren Dagdeviren: 43 passningar, xT 0.01DagdevirenJuan Tiago Esteban Poller: 34 passningar, xT 0.14PollerYasin Zor: 32 passningar, xT 0.31Zor
    SC Fortuna Koln
    David Kamm Al-Azzawe: 97 passningar, xT 0.17Al-AzzaweLennart Winkler: 85 passningar, xT 0.09WinklerRobin Afamefuna: 83 passningar, xT 0.15AfamefunaMaximilian Fischer: 80 passningar, xT 0.17FischerGeorg Strauch: 72 passningar, xT 0StrauchSeymour Fünger: 55 passningar, xT 0.05FüngerAdrian Stanilewicz: 50 passningar, xT 0.49StanilewiczKevin Brechmann: 48 passningar, xT 0.06BrechmannNeo Telle: 40 passningar, xT 0.16TelleBennit Bröger: 27 passningar, xT 0.57BrögerNico Thier: 23 passningar, xT 0.33Thier
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Valentin Lassig: 183 passningar, xT 0.27LassigSean Dulic: 180 passningar, xT 0.33DulicMatthew Moore: 137 passningar, xT 0.62MooreLúkas Jóhannes Blöndal Petersson: 110 passningar, xT 0.09PeterssonFlorian Peter Micheler: 73 passningar, xT 0.46MichelerKlaus Gjasula: 72 passningar, xT 0.15GjasulaTristan Spranger: 67 passningar, xT 0.12SprangerBlessing Makanda: 56 passningar, xT 0MakandaDiren Dagdeviren: 43 passningar, xT 0.01DagdevirenJuan Tiago Esteban Poller: 34 passningar, xT 0.14PollerYasin Zor: 32 passningar, xT 0.31Zor
    SC Fortuna Koln
    David Kamm Al-Azzawe: 97 passningar, xT 0.17Al-AzzaweLennart Winkler: 85 passningar, xT 0.09WinklerRobin Afamefuna: 83 passningar, xT 0.15AfamefunaMaximilian Fischer: 80 passningar, xT 0.17FischerGeorg Strauch: 72 passningar, xT 0StrauchSeymour Fünger: 55 passningar, xT 0.05FüngerAdrian Stanilewicz: 50 passningar, xT 0.49StanilewiczKevin Brechmann: 48 passningar, xT 0.06BrechmannNeo Telle: 40 passningar, xT 0.16TelleBennit Bröger: 27 passningar, xT 0.57BrögerNico Thier: 23 passningar, xT 0.33Thier

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTSG 1899 Hoffenheim IISC Fortuna Koln
    Points64
    xPoints4.52.6
    xG per match1.51
    xGA per match1.21.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.20.3
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.270.41
    Playing styleTSG 1899 Hoffenheim IISC Fortuna Koln
    Build-up efficiency0.270.44
    Field tilt0.550.32
    xT per match11.1
    xTA per match1.41.1
    Won balls, offensive half2717
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.360.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.330.19
    Entries into the box per match1413
    Entries into the box against1415
    Pass completion %0.760.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.64
    Passes per match362244
    Passes against per match279373
    Switches of play per match22.423.2
    Long balls per match3238
    Set piecesTSG 1899 Hoffenheim IISC Fortuna Koln
    xG from free kicks0.240.13
    Corners per match2.73.3
    Corners against per match54.9
    xG per corner00
    xGA per corner against0.020.06
    First touch, offensive corners %0.250.2
    First touch, defensive corners %0.530.6
    OtherTSG 1899 Hoffenheim IISC Fortuna Koln
    Throw-in control0.780.71
    The goalkeepersLúkas Jóhannes Blöndal Petersson (TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II)Lennart Winkler (SC Fortuna Koln)
    Saves1013
    Save %71%81%
    xG prevented70%57%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Fixtures, form & tips
    SC Fortuna Koln
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II vs SC Fortuna Koln according to our model?

    The model gives TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 52%, draw 24%, SC Fortuna Koln 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.