3. Liga

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    GR
    GrossaspachCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    VerlVerlPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Verl (45%)
    Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

    Grossaspach – Verl · 3. Liga

    1 · Grossaspach 31%X 24%45% Verl · 2

    Analysis: Grossaspach – Verl

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT:

    Grossaspach's xG per match at 1.8 suggests an ability to create chances, yet their xGA at the same figure points to a porous defense. Verl, meanwhile, manages just 0.96 xG per match, indicating a struggle to generate offensive opportunities. Despite this, the visitors hold a 45% model probability of winning, showcasing the disparity between statistical form and expected outcomes.

    Verl's tactical approach of possession control may clash with Grossaspach's counter-attacking style, potentially opening up spaces for the hosts. However, the model leans Verl's way, despite Verl's own xGA of 1.9 being higher than Grossaspach's 1.8 and their inferior goal creation metrics. These season trends are the basis for the lean.

    With a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability of both teams finding the net, the match is set for goals, but not without risks. Grossaspach's defense could be the decisive factor, allowing Verl to capitalize. The most compelling angle here is that Verl's model probability of 45% suggests value if their possession strategy effectively stifles the host's counter-attacks.

    Grossaspach
    Form WLLW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #17xT #1xP/match #10Points #8
    Key players
    • Marlon Freddy FaßFxG 0.44 · xT 0.01
    • Fabian EiseleFxG 0.72 · xT 0.06
    • Christian MistlCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.14
    VerlVerl
    Form WLLLW
    League ranking xG #20xGA #19xT #15xP/match #20Points #19
    Key players
    • André LeipoldLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.04
    • Felix VoglerCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
    • Tim HeikeFxG 0.46 · xT -0.01

    Match prediction: Grossaspach – Verl

    Predicted score matrix

    Verl →
    Grossaspach →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.1%
    0–18.2%
    0–27.5%
    0–34.4%
    0–4+2.9%
    1
    1–05.8%
    1–111.1%
    1–29.5%
    1–35.6%
    1–4+3.7%
    2
    2–03.9%
    2–16.8%
    2–26.0%
    2–33.6%
    2–4+2.3%
    3
    3–01.6%
    3–12.9%
    3–22.5%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–00.7%
    4+–11.2%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-210%
    3. 3.0-18%
    4. 4.0-28%
    5. 5.2-17%
    Expected goals
    1,26–1,77
    Both teams to score
    60%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,542%
    @2.20
    Over 2,558%
    @1.60

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Verl or draw (X2)73%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    60%

    Fair odds

    1.68

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Verl or draw (X2)73%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Julian Stark to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score60%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Julian Stark to score24%
    • Joshua Chima Eze to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Verl45% probability@2.35BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
    • 2 · Verl45% probability@2.35BetssonEV+5%reference odds
    • 2 · Verl45% probability@2.35NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · GrossaspachX2 · Verl
    Betsafe2.653.40
    EV+ 5%
    2.35
    Betsson2.653.40
    EV+ 5%
    2.35
    Nordicbet2.653.40
    EV+ 5%
    2.35

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 00:38

    Odds movement

    10 %
    38 %33 %

    2.65 → 2.65

    X-3 %
    29 %24 %

    3.50 → 3.40

    2+1 %
    41 %36 %

    2.32 → 2.35

    Over 2,50 %
    60 %55 %

    1.60 → 1.60

    Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 10/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Grossaspach
    Verl
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Grossaspach (2–4)
    Verl (5–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Grossaspach
    Antonis Aidonis: 181 passningar, xT 0.71AidonisMarius Kunde: 166 passningar, xT 0.41KundeArbnor Nuraj: 162 passningar, xT 0.32NurajJan Elias Rahn: 148 passningar, xT 0.67RahnLuca Damiano Molinari: 146 passningar, xT 0.97MolinariLoris Maier: 131 passningar, xT 0.09MaierVolkan Celiktas: 116 passningar, xT 0.31CeliktasMaximilian Reule: 109 passningar, xT 0.16ReuleTim Rossmann: 89 passningar, xT 0.07RossmannNiklas Pollex: 80 passningar, xT 0.89PollexChristian Mistl: 68 passningar, xT 0.18Mistl
    Verl
    Felix Vogler: 247 passningar, xT 0.38VoglerNiko Kijewski: 196 passningar, xT 0.59KijewskiTimo Schlieck: 167 passningar, xT 0.14SchlieckDennis Waidner: 159 passningar, xT 0.5WaidnerPaul Lehmann: 140 passningar, xT 0.07LehmannNick Seidel: 136 passningar, xT 0.42SeidelAlmin Mešanović: 115 passningar, xT 0.03MešanovićJanne Berner: 107 passningar, xT 0.35BernerJoshua Chima Eze: 92 passningar, xT 0.12EzeAndré Leipold: 63 passningar, xT -0.03LeipoldMika Clausen: 62 passningar, xT 0.2Clausen
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Grossaspach
    Antonis Aidonis: 181 passningar, xT 0.71AidonisMarius Kunde: 166 passningar, xT 0.41KundeArbnor Nuraj: 162 passningar, xT 0.32NurajJan Elias Rahn: 148 passningar, xT 0.67RahnLuca Damiano Molinari: 146 passningar, xT 0.97MolinariLoris Maier: 131 passningar, xT 0.09MaierVolkan Celiktas: 116 passningar, xT 0.31CeliktasMaximilian Reule: 109 passningar, xT 0.16ReuleTim Rossmann: 89 passningar, xT 0.07RossmannNiklas Pollex: 80 passningar, xT 0.89PollexChristian Mistl: 68 passningar, xT 0.18Mistl
    Verl
    Felix Vogler: 247 passningar, xT 0.38VoglerNiko Kijewski: 196 passningar, xT 0.59KijewskiTimo Schlieck: 167 passningar, xT 0.14SchlieckDennis Waidner: 159 passningar, xT 0.5WaidnerPaul Lehmann: 140 passningar, xT 0.07LehmannNick Seidel: 136 passningar, xT 0.42SeidelAlmin Mešanović: 115 passningar, xT 0.03MešanovićJanne Berner: 107 passningar, xT 0.35BernerJoshua Chima Eze: 92 passningar, xT 0.12EzeAndré Leipold: 63 passningar, xT -0.03LeipoldMika Clausen: 62 passningar, xT 0.2Clausen

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceGrossaspachVerl
    Points63
    xPoints5.93.3
    xG per match1.80.96
    xGA per match1.81.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.270.29
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.210.33
    Playing styleGrossaspachVerl
    Build-up efficiency0.330.29
    Field tilt0.650.62
    xT per match1.60.88
    xTA per match1.21.3
    Won balls, offensive half2718
    Pressing intensity0.240.22
    Pressing efficiency0.360.35
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.320.3
    Entries into the box per match2210
    Entries into the box against1416
    Pass completion %0.730.8
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.75
    Passes per match375427
    Passes against per match286288
    Switches of play per match22.420.8
    Long balls per match3528
    Set piecesGrossaspachVerl
    xG from free kicks0.030.04
    Corners per match6.53
    Corners against per match5.54.2
    xG per corner0.040.01
    xGA per corner against0.040.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.420.25
    First touch, defensive corners %0.680.41
    OtherGrossaspachVerl
    Throw-in control0.730.75
    The goalkeepersMaximilian Reule (Grossaspach)Timo Schlieck (Verl)
    Saves1614
    Save %84%58%
    xG prevented86%32%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Grossaspach
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Verl
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Grossaspach vs Verl according to our model?

    The model gives Verl a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Grossaspach 31%, draw 24%, Verl 45%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.