3. Liga23°20 km/h

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    IngolstadtIngolstadtPossession control
    0–3
    Alemannia AachenAlemannia AachenPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Ingolstadt (37%)Best value by the model: 2 · Alemannia Aachen @ 2.86 (+3 %)

    Ingolstadt – Alemannia Aachen · 3. Liga

    1 · Ingolstadt 37%X 27%36% Alemannia Aachen · 2

    Analysis: Ingolstadt – Alemannia Aachen

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    A bet on Ingolstadt to win at odds of 2.60 with Unibet presents value — this specific odds figure and bookmaker are not supported by the provided facts and should be removed or replaced with a general statement about the model's lean.

    Corrected text:

    With both Ingolstadt and Alemannia Aachen boasting possession-control styles, the numbers make Ingolstadt's unbeaten streak of five league matches stand out. The model gives them a slight edge at 37% win probability over Aachen's 36%, pointing towards a tight encounter. Despite a small head-to-head sample, where Ingolstadt trails slightly, their recent form and expected metrics show promise: a stronger xG output of 1.7 per match compared to Aachen's 1.4, and a superior defensive xGA of 0.88 against 1.4.

    The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-2, suggest a narrow affair, yet with a 64% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 66% both-teams-to-score forecast, an open game is on the cards. Ingolstadt's statistical edge in xPoints (5.6 vs 4.3) and their stable defense could tip the balance, hinting they might just edge it.

    The model's lean favors Ingolstadt, given their solid form and defensive robustness. While not a guarantee, the numbers suggest Ingolstadt could emerge victorious, with a likely scoreline of 2-1, aligning with the over 2.5 goals lean.

    IngolstadtIngolstadt
    Form WWDDW
    League ranking xG #8xGA #3xT #14xP/match #3Points #6
    Key players
    • Obed Chidindu UgonduFxG 0.74 · xT 0.01
    • Keanan BennettsLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16
    • Davide-Danilo SekulovicRWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.19
    Alemannia AachenAlemannia Aachen
    Form WWWDL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #18xP/match #9Points #7
    Key players
    • Faton AdemiFxG 0.47 · xT 0.07
    • Matti WagnerLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
    • Daniel StarodidFxG 0.23 · xT -0.03
    Final score
    0 – 3
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Ingolstadt 37% · Draw 27% · Alemannia Aachen 36%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Alemannia AachenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,92fair 6,27+10 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FC Ingolstadt 04Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,42fair 7,58-29 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Ingolstadt – Alemannia Aachen

    Predicted score matrix

    Alemannia Aachen →
    Ingolstadt →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.0%
    0–16.0%
    0–25.5%
    0–33.2%
    0–4+2.0%
    1
    1–05.5%
    1–110.3%
    1–28.6%
    1–35.0%
    1–4+3.2%
    2
    2–04.5%
    2–17.9%
    2–26.8%
    2–33.9%
    2–4+2.5%
    3
    3–02.4%
    3–14.1%
    3–23.6%
    3–32.1%
    3–4+1.3%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–22.0%
    4+–31.2%
    4+–4+0.7%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.0-16%
    Expected goals
    1,58–1,73
    Both teams to score
    66%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,536%
    @2.32
    Over 2,564%
    @1.55

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Ingolstadt or draw (1X)59%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.03

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Ingolstadt or draw (1X)59%
    • Over 2.5 goals64%
    • Marcel Costly to score20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score66%
    • Over 2.5 goals64%
    • Lars Timo Gindorf to score25%
    • Danilo Wiebe to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Alemannia Aachen36% probability@2.86PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
    • X · Draw27% probability@3.78PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
    • 2 · Alemannia Aachen36% probability@2.80BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · IngolstadtX2 · Alemannia Aachen
    Betsafe2.203.55
    EV+ 1%
    2.80
    Betsson2.203.55
    EV+ 1%
    2.80
    Nordicbet2.203.55
    EV+ 1%
    2.80
    Pinnacle2.27
    EV+ 3%
    3.78
    EV+ 3%
    2.86

    Odds updated 4 Sept, 10:31

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Ingolstadt win since 29 August — the odds have shortened from 2.69 to 2.27 (−16%).

    1-16 %
    44 %34 %

    2.69 → 2.27

    X+4 %
    30 %20 %

    3.63 → 3.78

    2+21 %
    41 %31 %

    2.36 → 2.86

    Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 29/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Ingolstadt 1Draw 1Alemannia Aachen 2
    Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • FC Ingolstadt 04 are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Ingolstadt
    Alemannia Aachen
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Ingolstadt (5–3)
    Alemannia Aachen (5–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Ingolstadt
    Simon Lorenz: 130 passningar, xT 0.09LorenzGeorgios Antzoulas: 109 passningar, xT 0.34AntzoulasDavid Klein: 101 passningar, xT 0.1KleinJonas Scholz: 100 passningar, xT 0.3ScholzVinko Sapina: 94 passningar, xT 0.15SapinaDavide-Danilo Sekulovic: 72 passningar, xT 0.38SekulovicKeanan Bennetts: 70 passningar, xT 0.43BennettsFredrik Carlsen: 55 passningar, xT 0.01CarlsenEmre Gul: 42 passningar, xT 0.84GulLars Lokotsch: 29 passningar, xT 0.01LokotschYannick Deichmann: 26 passningar, xT 0.22Deichmann
    Alemannia Aachen
    Petros Bagalianis: 121 passningar, xT 0.2BagalianisJoel Miguel da Silva Kiala: 98 passningar, xT 0.11KialaStefan Bajić: 83 passningar, xT 0.17BajićLukas Scepanik: 77 passningar, xT 0.12ScepanikDanilo Wiebe: 74 passningar, xT 0.06WiebeMika Timothy Hanraths: 59 passningar, xT 0.2HanrathsMatti Wagner: 57 passningar, xT 0.15WagnerFaton Ademi: 37 passningar, xT 0.09AdemiMika Schroers: 31 passningar, xT 0.08SchroersDaniel Starodid: 29 passningar, xT -0.08StarodidMehdi Loune: 24 passningar, xT 0.12Loune
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Ingolstadt
    Simon Lorenz: 130 passningar, xT 0.09LorenzGeorgios Antzoulas: 109 passningar, xT 0.34AntzoulasDavid Klein: 101 passningar, xT 0.1KleinJonas Scholz: 100 passningar, xT 0.3ScholzVinko Sapina: 94 passningar, xT 0.15SapinaDavide-Danilo Sekulovic: 72 passningar, xT 0.38SekulovicKeanan Bennetts: 70 passningar, xT 0.43BennettsFredrik Carlsen: 55 passningar, xT 0.01CarlsenEmre Gul: 42 passningar, xT 0.84GulLars Lokotsch: 29 passningar, xT 0.01LokotschYannick Deichmann: 26 passningar, xT 0.22Deichmann
    Alemannia Aachen
    Petros Bagalianis: 121 passningar, xT 0.2BagalianisJoel Miguel da Silva Kiala: 98 passningar, xT 0.11KialaStefan Bajić: 83 passningar, xT 0.17BajićLukas Scepanik: 77 passningar, xT 0.12ScepanikDanilo Wiebe: 74 passningar, xT 0.06WiebeMika Timothy Hanraths: 59 passningar, xT 0.2HanrathsMatti Wagner: 57 passningar, xT 0.15WagnerFaton Ademi: 37 passningar, xT 0.09AdemiMika Schroers: 31 passningar, xT 0.08SchroersDaniel Starodid: 29 passningar, xT -0.08StarodidMehdi Loune: 24 passningar, xT 0.12Loune

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceIngolstadtAlemannia Aachen
    Points54
    xPoints5.64.3
    xG per match1.71.4
    xGA per match0.881.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.490.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.28
    Playing styleIngolstadtAlemannia Aachen
    Build-up efficiency0.310.3
    Field tilt0.350.49
    xT per match10.79
    xTA per match1.21.2
    Won balls, offensive half2725
    Pressing intensity0.210.21
    Pressing efficiency0.350.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.330.26
    Entries into the box per match1110
    Entries into the box against1714
    Pass completion %0.70.68
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.61
    Passes per match301268
    Passes against per match327351
    Switches of play per match20.914.9
    Long balls per match3824
    Set piecesIngolstadtAlemannia Aachen
    xG from free kicks0.030.24
    Corners per match3.43
    Corners against per match7.13.3
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.30.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.5
    OtherIngolstadtAlemannia Aachen
    Throw-in control0.630.66
    The goalkeepersDavid Klein (Ingolstadt)Stefan Bajić (Alemannia Aachen)
    Saves117
    Save %79%58%
    xG prevented67%54%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Ingolstadt
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Alemannia Aachen
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Ingolstadt vs Alemannia Aachen according to our model?

    The model gives Ingolstadt a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ingolstadt 37%, draw 27%, Alemannia Aachen 36%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.