3. Liga20°7,5 mm19 km/h

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    Jahn RegensburgJahn RegensburgLow block & direct
    1–2
    DuisburgDuisburgCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Duisburg (41%)Best value by the model: 1 · Jahn Regensburg @ 3.66 (+26 %)

    Jahn Regensburg – Duisburg · 3. Liga

    1 · Jahn Regensburg 34%X 24%41% Duisburg · 2

    Analysis: Jahn Regensburg – Duisburg

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Duisburg's recent form paints a stark picture: three consecutive victories and a clear edge in expected goals per match at 2.2, twice that of their hosts. Jahn Regensburg, sitting with only 3 points, navigates a challenging period with a defense leaking at 2.3 xGA per game. Despite Regensburg's direct approach, Duisburg's counter-attacking prowess and superior crossing ability are expected to exploit these defensive frailties.

    The model slightly favors Duisburg with a 41% win probability, and their previous two head-to-head victories, though from a small sample, align with their current dominance. Regensburg's direct style could struggle under forecasted rain, further suppressing their potential to exceed their 1.26 expected goals.

    The betting model flags a potential value on Regensburg at odds of 3.4 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Still, Duisburg's superior metrics suggest a likely scoreline of 0-1 or 1-2, leaning towards under 2.5 goals, particularly in wet conditions. While Regensburg offers tempting value, Duisburg's form and firepower make them the logical choice for a narrow win.

    Jahn RegensburgJahn Regensburg
    Form LLWLL
    League ranking xG #19xGA #21xT #7xP/match #18Points #15
    Key players
    • Lucas HermesFxG 0.18 · xT 0.07
    • David PhilippRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.24
    • Adrian FeinCAMxG 0.37 · xT 0.20
    DuisburgDuisburg
    Form DDWWW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #5xP/match #2Points #1
    Key players
    • Lex Tyger LobingerFxG 0.98 · xT -0.03
    • Can Beklan CoşkunLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.25
    • Rasim BulićCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.01
    Final score
    1 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Jahn Regensburg 34% · Draw 24% · Duisburg 41%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Jahn RegensburgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,84fair 11,98-26 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - MSV DuisburgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,80fair 8,78-45 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Jahn Regensburg – Duisburg

    Predicted score matrix

    Duisburg →
    Jahn Regensburg →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.8%
    0–19.2%
    0–27.1%
    0–33.5%
    0–4+1.8%
    1
    1–07.8%
    1–112.4%
    1–28.9%
    1–34.4%
    1–4+2.2%
    2
    2–05.1%
    2–17.6%
    2–25.6%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.4%
    3
    3–02.2%
    3–13.2%
    3–22.4%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–00.9%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-19%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,26–1,48
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,548%
    @2.28EV+10%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.55

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Duisburg or draw (X2)68%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.92

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Duisburg or draw (X2)68%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Jan-Simon Symalla to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Philipp Müller to score24%
    • Tobias Fleckstein to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Jahn Regensburg34% probability@3.66PinnacleEV+26%reference odds
    • 1 · Jahn Regensburg34% probability@3.50BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
    • 1 · Jahn Regensburg34% probability@3.50BetssonEV+21%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Jahn RegensburgX2 · Duisburg
    Betsafe
    EV+ 21%
    3.50    		3.601.90
    Betsson
    EV+ 21%
    3.50    		3.601.90
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 21%
    3.50    		3.601.90
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 26%
    3.66    		4.041.87

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Duisburg win since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 1.96 to 1.87 (−5%).

    1+10 %
    31 %21 %

    3.34 → 3.66

    X+7 %
    29 %19 %

    3.79 → 4.04

    2-5 %
    55 %45 %

    1.96 → 1.87

    Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Jahn Regensburg 0Draw 0Duisburg 2
    Goals: 0–6 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • MSV Duisburg come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Jahn Regensburg
    Duisburg
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Jahn Regensburg (6–8)
    Duisburg (10–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Jahn Regensburg
    Leopold Wurm: 135 passningar, xT 0.32WurmAdrian Fein: 134 passningar, xT 0.39FeinFelix Strauß: 118 passningar, xT 0.15StraußHannes Steffen Hermann: 89 passningar, xT 0.1HermannOscar Schönfelder: 82 passningar, xT 0.76SchönfelderBenedikt Bauer: 71 passningar, xT 0.42BauerNassim Boujellab: 48 passningar, xT 0.1BoujellabDavid Philipp: 36 passningar, xT 0.56PhilippErik Majetschak: 34 passningar, xT -0.03MajetschakSascha Hingerl: 31 passningar, xT 0.01HingerlLucas Hermes: 28 passningar, xT 0.06Hermes
    Duisburg
    Tobias Fleckstein: 124 passningar, xT 0.19FlecksteinMaximilian Braune: 109 passningar, xT 0.16BrauneRasim Bulić: 100 passningar, xT 0.04BulićCan Beklan Coşkun: 90 passningar, xT 0.73CoşkunJoshua Bitter: 83 passningar, xT 0.48BitterAljaz Casar: 67 passningar, xT 0.21CasarChristian Viet: 66 passningar, xT 0.13VietMartin Ens: 52 passningar, xT 0.07EnsBen Schlicke: 44 passningar, xT 0.04SchlickeConor Noß: 39 passningar, xT -0.01NoßPatrick Sussek: 36 passningar, xT 0.21Sussek
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Jahn Regensburg
    Leopold Wurm: 135 passningar, xT 0.32WurmAdrian Fein: 134 passningar, xT 0.39FeinFelix Strauß: 118 passningar, xT 0.15StraußHannes Steffen Hermann: 89 passningar, xT 0.1HermannOscar Schönfelder: 82 passningar, xT 0.76SchönfelderBenedikt Bauer: 71 passningar, xT 0.42BauerNassim Boujellab: 48 passningar, xT 0.1BoujellabDavid Philipp: 36 passningar, xT 0.56PhilippErik Majetschak: 34 passningar, xT -0.03MajetschakSascha Hingerl: 31 passningar, xT 0.01HingerlLucas Hermes: 28 passningar, xT 0.06Hermes
    Duisburg
    Tobias Fleckstein: 124 passningar, xT 0.19FlecksteinMaximilian Braune: 109 passningar, xT 0.16BrauneRasim Bulić: 100 passningar, xT 0.04BulićCan Beklan Coşkun: 90 passningar, xT 0.73CoşkunJoshua Bitter: 83 passningar, xT 0.48BitterAljaz Casar: 67 passningar, xT 0.21CasarChristian Viet: 66 passningar, xT 0.13VietMartin Ens: 52 passningar, xT 0.07EnsBen Schlicke: 44 passningar, xT 0.04SchlickeConor Noß: 39 passningar, xT -0.01NoßPatrick Sussek: 36 passningar, xT 0.21Sussek

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceJahn RegensburgDuisburg
    Points39
    xPoints3.26.8
    xG per match1.12.2
    xGA per match2.30.66
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.140.22
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.110.06
    Playing styleJahn RegensburgDuisburg
    Build-up efficiency0.30.3
    Field tilt0.350.57
    xT per match1.11.2
    xTA per match1.40.74
    Won balls, offensive half2331
    Pressing intensity0.230.2
    Pressing efficiency0.270.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.19
    Entries into the box per match1117
    Entries into the box against188
    Pass completion %0.730.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.74
    Passes per match284330
    Passes against per match459348
    Switches of play per match16.425.2
    Long balls per match3137
    Set piecesJahn RegensburgDuisburg
    xG from free kicks0.010.02
    Corners per match2.37.7
    Corners against per match5.33.7
    xG per corner0.020.05
    xGA per corner against0.040.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.290.48
    First touch, defensive corners %0.470.55
    OtherJahn RegensburgDuisburg
    Throw-in control0.630.74
    The goalkeepersFelix Strauß (Jahn Regensburg)Maximilian Braune (Duisburg)
    Saves76
    Save %100%75%
    xG prevented100%78%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Jahn Regensburg
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Duisburg
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Jahn Regensburg vs Duisburg according to our model?

    The model gives Duisburg a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jahn Regensburg 34%, draw 24%, Duisburg 41%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.