3. Liga19°15 km/h

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    SC Fortuna KolnSC Fortuna KolnCounter-attacks & crosses
    0–0
    Fortuna DüsseldorfFortuna DüsseldorfPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Fortuna Düsseldorf (39%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.65 (+10 %)

    SC Fortuna Koln – Fortuna Düsseldorf · 3. Liga

    1 · SC Fortuna Koln 31%X 30%39% Fortuna Düsseldorf · 2

    Analysis: SC Fortuna Koln – Fortuna Düsseldorf

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT: A narrow head-to-head sample between SC Fortuna Koln and Fortuna Düsseldorf offers limited insight into their current dynamics. The focus shifts to the nuances of form and tactical inclinations, where Düsseldorf's edge in possession control may meet a stiff test against Koln's propensity for counterattacking and crossing maneuvers. The model leans slightly towards the visitors, granting them a 39% win probability, yet the hosts have a marginal upper hand with a points tally of 4 to Düsseldorf's 3.

    Koln's style is straightforward: absorb pressure, strike back with speed, and exploit wide areas. Their 1.40 expected goals suggest they can carve out chances, but their 1.9 expected goals against (xGA) is their Achilles' heel. Düsseldorf, on the other hand, will look to dictate the game through possession. They boast a better expected points tally and a tighter defense, conceding fewer xGA at 1.3. The visitors' capacity to control the tempo might frustrate Koln's attempts to break quickly.

    Despite Koln's ability to counter, Düsseldorf's slightly superior xG per match (1.2) signals their potential to capitalize on defensive lapses. The most likely scorelines hover around parity, with 1-1 leading at 13%, followed by 1-0 at 10%. The data points towards a closely contested battle, where both teams have a 54% chance of finding the net, reflecting a near-even split in potential outcomes.

    For bettors, the model's lean toward Fortuna Düsseldorf aligns with the tactical narrative, given their edge in xPoints, xG, and xGA. While it's no certainty, Düsseldorf's underlying numbers support their chances to edge a tight affair.

    SC Fortuna KolnSC Fortuna Koln
    Form LDW
    League ranking xG #20xGA #17xT #13xP/match #19Points #9
    Key players
    • Kevin BrechmannRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
    • Adrian StanilewiczCAMxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
    • Nico ThierLWxG 0.36 · xT 0.15
    Fortuna DüsseldorfFortuna Düsseldorf
    Form LLW
    League ranking xG #15xGA #6xT #6xP/match #11Points #17
    Key players
    • Fabian SchleusenerFxG 0.28 · xT 0.14
    • Eric HottmannFxG 0.22 · xT 0.10
    • Tim OberdorfCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
    Final score
    0 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: SC Fortuna Koln 31% · Draw 30% · Fortuna Düsseldorf 39%

    Match prediction: SC Fortuna Koln – Fortuna Düsseldorf

    Predicted score matrix

    Fortuna Düsseldorf →
    SC Fortuna Koln →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.5%
    0–18.5%
    0–25.5%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–09.5%
    1–112.7%
    1–27.7%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–06.9%
    2–18.6%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–14.0%
    3–22.5%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–11.9%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,40–1,25
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,551%
    @2.06EV+4%
    Over 2,549%
    @1.77

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw (X2)60%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    44%

    Fair odds

    2.26

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw (X2)60%
    • Under 2.5 goals51%
    • Cedric Jan Itten to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals49%
    • Cedric Jan Itten to score28%
    • Tim Christopher Oberdorf to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw30% probability@3.65PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
    • Under 2.551% probability@2.06PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · SC Fortuna KolnX2 · Fortuna Düsseldorf
    Pinnacle3.07
    EV+ 10%
    3.65    		2.20

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 10:32

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    34 %29 %

    3.01 → 3.07

    X+2 %
    29 %24 %

    3.58 → 3.65

    2+1 %
    45 %40 %

    2.18 → 2.20

    Over 2,5+1 %
    56 %51 %

    1.75 → 1.77

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    SC Fortuna Koln
    Fortuna Düsseldorf
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    SC Fortuna Koln (3–3)
    Fortuna Düsseldorf (2–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    SC Fortuna Koln
    David Kamm Al-Azzawe: 97 passningar, xT 0.17Al-AzzaweLennart Winkler: 85 passningar, xT 0.09WinklerRobin Afamefuna: 83 passningar, xT 0.15AfamefunaMaximilian Fischer: 80 passningar, xT 0.17FischerGeorg Strauch: 72 passningar, xT 0StrauchSeymour Fünger: 55 passningar, xT 0.05FüngerAdrian Stanilewicz: 50 passningar, xT 0.49StanilewiczKevin Brechmann: 48 passningar, xT 0.06BrechmannNeo Telle: 40 passningar, xT 0.16TelleBennit Bröger: 27 passningar, xT 0.57BrögerNico Thier: 23 passningar, xT 0.33Thier
    Fortuna Düsseldorf
    Tim Oberdorf: 144 passningar, xT 0.17OberdorfSteven Ako van der Sloot: 79 passningar, xT 0.79SlootMatthias Zimmermann: 72 passningar, xT 0.36ZimmermannLasse Finn Rieß: 68 passningar, xT 0.09RießFelix Constantin Meiser: 59 passningar, xT 0.06MeiserYassine Bouchama: 52 passningar, xT 0.09BouchamaMarcel Benger: 50 passningar, xT 0.02BengerDominique Heintz: 47 passningar, xT 0.01HeintzAnas Slimani: 44 passningar, xT 0.21SlimaniElias Arden: 43 passningar, xT 0.09ArdenElias Egouli: 39 passningar, xT -0.01Egouli
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    SC Fortuna Koln
    David Kamm Al-Azzawe: 97 passningar, xT 0.17Al-AzzaweLennart Winkler: 85 passningar, xT 0.09WinklerRobin Afamefuna: 83 passningar, xT 0.15AfamefunaMaximilian Fischer: 80 passningar, xT 0.17FischerGeorg Strauch: 72 passningar, xT 0StrauchSeymour Fünger: 55 passningar, xT 0.05FüngerAdrian Stanilewicz: 50 passningar, xT 0.49StanilewiczKevin Brechmann: 48 passningar, xT 0.06BrechmannNeo Telle: 40 passningar, xT 0.16TelleBennit Bröger: 27 passningar, xT 0.57BrögerNico Thier: 23 passningar, xT 0.33Thier
    Fortuna Düsseldorf
    Tim Oberdorf: 144 passningar, xT 0.17OberdorfSteven Ako van der Sloot: 79 passningar, xT 0.79SlootMatthias Zimmermann: 72 passningar, xT 0.36ZimmermannLasse Finn Rieß: 68 passningar, xT 0.09RießFelix Constantin Meiser: 59 passningar, xT 0.06MeiserYassine Bouchama: 52 passningar, xT 0.09BouchamaMarcel Benger: 50 passningar, xT 0.02BengerDominique Heintz: 47 passningar, xT 0.01HeintzAnas Slimani: 44 passningar, xT 0.21SlimaniElias Arden: 43 passningar, xT 0.09ArdenElias Egouli: 39 passningar, xT -0.01Egouli

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSC Fortuna KolnFortuna Düsseldorf
    Points43
    xPoints2.64
    xG per match11.2
    xGA per match1.91.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.30.33
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.410.31
    Playing styleSC Fortuna KolnFortuna Düsseldorf
    Build-up efficiency0.440.34
    Field tilt0.320.5
    xT per match1.11.2
    xTA per match1.10.84
    Won balls, offensive half1725
    Pressing intensity0.220.2
    Pressing efficiency0.250.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.190.24
    Entries into the box per match1315
    Entries into the box against1513
    Pass completion %0.710.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.640.64
    Passes per match244319
    Passes against per match373298
    Switches of play per match23.220.5
    Long balls per match3830
    Set piecesSC Fortuna KolnFortuna Düsseldorf
    xG from free kicks0.130.04
    Corners per match3.36.3
    Corners against per match4.93
    xG per corner00.01
    xGA per corner against0.060.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.20.58
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60.89
    OtherSC Fortuna KolnFortuna Düsseldorf
    Throw-in control0.710.65
    The goalkeepersLennart Winkler (SC Fortuna Koln)Lasse Finn Rieß (Fortuna Düsseldorf)
    Saves135
    Save %81%56%
    xG prevented57%63%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    SC Fortuna Koln
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Fortuna Düsseldorf
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins SC Fortuna Koln vs Fortuna Düsseldorf according to our model?

    The model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: SC Fortuna Koln 31%, draw 30%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 39%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.