3. Liga

    Läs på svenska
    GR
    GrossaspachCounter-attacks & crosses
    1–0
    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim IITSG 1899 Hoffenheim IICounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Grossaspach (47%)

    Grossaspach – TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II · 3. Liga

    1 · Grossaspach 47%X 26%27% TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II · 2

    Analysis: Grossaspach – TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Grossaspach's 47% probability of victory sets the tone against TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II, despite the visitors holding a slight edge in points and xPoints. The hosts' counter-attack efficiency is evident with an xG of 0.22 within 8 seconds of regaining possession, slightly outpacing Hoffenheim II. Yet, Hoffenheim's tighter defense, with an xGA of 1.2, contrasts sharply with Grossaspach's looser backline.

    The expected goals indicate a closely contested match, with Grossaspach slightly ahead at 1.77 versus Hoffenheim's 1.60. However, the probability of both teams scoring stands at a high 67%, pointing to a likely exchange of goals. Given these dynamics, a 1-1 draw emerges as the most probable outcome at 10%, followed closely by a 2-1 win for Grossaspach at 9%. Despite Grossaspach's statistical edge, Hoffenheim's form and defensive resilience cannot be ignored.

    For those eyeing value in the betting market, the over 4.5 goals proposition at odds of 4.25 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet carries a 6% edge. While the model rates the probability of hitting this over at 25%, the low likelihood suggests a cautious approach, albeit with potential high returns if the match defies the expected patterns.

    Grossaspach
    Form WLL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #12xT #1xP/match #12Points #18
    Key players
    • Fabian EiseleFxG 0.66 · xT 0.00
    • Marlon Freddy FaßFxG 0.30 · xT 0.01
    • Loris MaierCMxG 0.45 · xT 0.05
    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim IITSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Form LWW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #5xT #16xP/match #8Points #3
    Key players
    • Jakov DedićFxG 0.19 · xT 0.01
    • Blessing MakandaRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.00
    • Florian Peter MichelerCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.18
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Grossaspach 47% · Draw 26% · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 27%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - TSG HoffenheimBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,58fair 7,36-11 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - SG Sonnenhof GroßaspachBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,98fair 6,02-17 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Grossaspach – TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II

    Predicted score matrix

    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II →
    Grossaspach →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.7%
    0–15.2%
    0–24.4%
    0–32.4%
    0–4+1.3%
    1
    1–05.8%
    1–110.0%
    1–27.8%
    1–34.2%
    1–4+2.4%
    2
    2–05.4%
    2–18.6%
    2–26.9%
    2–33.7%
    2–4+2.1%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–15.1%
    3–24.1%
    3–32.2%
    3–4+1.2%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–13.3%
    4+–22.7%
    4+–31.4%
    4+–4+0.8%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.1-06%
    Expected goals
    1,77–1,60
    Both teams to score
    67%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,4
    Under 2,535%
    @2.48
    Over 2,565%
    @1.48

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Grossaspach to win47%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.79

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Grossaspach to win47%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Tim Rossmann to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score67%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Tim Rossmann to score28%
    • Klaus Gjasula to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Grossaspach47% probability@2.29PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    • 1 · Grossaspach47% probability@2.15BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
    • 1 · Grossaspach47% probability@2.15BetssonEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · GrossaspachX2 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Betsafe
    EV+ 2%
    2.15    		3.602.85
    Betsson
    EV+ 2%
    2.15    		3.602.85
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 2%
    2.15    		3.602.85
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 8%
    2.29    		3.732.87

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    1+8 %
    48 %38 %

    2.13 → 2.29

    X+4 %
    31 %21 %

    3.60 → 3.73

    2-7 %
    35 %25 %

    3.10 → 2.87

    Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Grossaspach
    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Grossaspach (1–4)
    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II (9–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Grossaspach
    Antonis Aidonis: 162 passningar, xT 0.71AidonisArbnor Nuraj: 149 passningar, xT 0.3NurajMarius Kunde: 139 passningar, xT 0.18KundeLuca Damiano Molinari: 130 passningar, xT 0.81MolinariJan Elias Rahn: 119 passningar, xT 0.45RahnLoris Maier: 113 passningar, xT 0MaierVolkan Celiktas: 92 passningar, xT 0.27CeliktasMaximilian Reule: 85 passningar, xT 0.1ReuleTim Rossmann: 74 passningar, xT 0.09RossmannChristian Mistl: 65 passningar, xT 0.18MistlNiklas Pollex: 58 passningar, xT 0.46Pollex
    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Valentin Lassig: 183 passningar, xT 0.27LassigSean Dulic: 180 passningar, xT 0.33DulicMatthew Moore: 137 passningar, xT 0.62MooreLúkas Jóhannes Blöndal Petersson: 110 passningar, xT 0.09PeterssonFlorian Peter Micheler: 73 passningar, xT 0.46MichelerKlaus Gjasula: 72 passningar, xT 0.15GjasulaTristan Spranger: 67 passningar, xT 0.12SprangerBlessing Makanda: 56 passningar, xT 0MakandaDiren Dagdeviren: 43 passningar, xT 0.01DagdevirenJuan Tiago Esteban Poller: 34 passningar, xT 0.14PollerYasin Zor: 32 passningar, xT 0.31Zor
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Grossaspach
    Antonis Aidonis: 162 passningar, xT 0.71AidonisArbnor Nuraj: 149 passningar, xT 0.3NurajMarius Kunde: 139 passningar, xT 0.18KundeLuca Damiano Molinari: 130 passningar, xT 0.81MolinariJan Elias Rahn: 119 passningar, xT 0.45RahnLoris Maier: 113 passningar, xT 0MaierVolkan Celiktas: 92 passningar, xT 0.27CeliktasMaximilian Reule: 85 passningar, xT 0.1ReuleTim Rossmann: 74 passningar, xT 0.09RossmannChristian Mistl: 65 passningar, xT 0.18MistlNiklas Pollex: 58 passningar, xT 0.46Pollex
    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Valentin Lassig: 183 passningar, xT 0.27LassigSean Dulic: 180 passningar, xT 0.33DulicMatthew Moore: 137 passningar, xT 0.62MooreLúkas Jóhannes Blöndal Petersson: 110 passningar, xT 0.09PeterssonFlorian Peter Micheler: 73 passningar, xT 0.46MichelerKlaus Gjasula: 72 passningar, xT 0.15GjasulaTristan Spranger: 67 passningar, xT 0.12SprangerBlessing Makanda: 56 passningar, xT 0MakandaDiren Dagdeviren: 43 passningar, xT 0.01DagdevirenJuan Tiago Esteban Poller: 34 passningar, xT 0.14PollerYasin Zor: 32 passningar, xT 0.31Zor

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceGrossaspachTSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Points36
    xPoints44.5
    xG per match1.51.5
    xGA per match1.51.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.220.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.270.27
    Playing styleGrossaspachTSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Build-up efficiency0.320.27
    Field tilt0.690.55
    xT per match1.61
    xTA per match1.21.4
    Won balls, offensive half2627
    Pressing intensity0.250.23
    Pressing efficiency0.350.36
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.340.33
    Entries into the box per match2314
    Entries into the box against1114
    Pass completion %0.750.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.73
    Passes per match426362
    Passes against per match262279
    Switches of play per match26.122.4
    Long balls per match3632
    Set piecesGrossaspachTSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    xG from free kicks0.020.24
    Corners per match7.72.7
    Corners against per match4.35
    xG per corner0.050
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.430.25
    First touch, defensive corners %0.770.53
    OtherGrossaspachTSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Throw-in control0.690.78
    The goalkeepersMaximilian Reule (Grossaspach)Lúkas Jóhannes Blöndal Petersson (TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II)
    Saves1310
    Save %81%71%
    xG prevented77%70%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Grossaspach
    Fixtures, form & tips
    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Grossaspach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II according to our model?

    The model gives Grossaspach a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Grossaspach 47%, draw 26%, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 27%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.