Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hoffenheim II: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

3. Liga15 August 202630°23 km/h

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Fortuna DüsseldorfCounter-attacks & crosses

0–2

Hoffenheim IICounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Fortuna Düsseldorf (56%)Best value by the model: 2 · Hoffenheim II @ 5.22 (+16 %)

1 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%X 22%22% Hoffenheim II · 2

56%

22%

Analysis: Fortuna Düsseldorf – Hoffenheim II

Oscar Nilsson · 13 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

With a 56% chance of winning, Fortuna Dusseldorf heads into their clash against TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II with the backing of the probabilistic models, yet numbers paint a more nuanced picture. The expected goals per match suggest a tight affair, with both clubs clocking in at an identical 1.1 xG per match. However, the real kicker is the defensive frailty on Dusseldorf’s side, conceding an alarming 2.2 xGA per match compared to Hoffenheim's 1.8. This defensive vulnerability may well be their undoing, despite their offensive edge.

Fortuna Dusseldorf thrives in swift transitions and aerial threats, with an impressive xG of 0.36 within 8 seconds of winning the ball. Their capability to strike quickly could prove decisive, especially given Hoffenheim II's meager 0.04 xG in the same scenario. Yet, Hoffenheim II's ability to capitalize on Dusseldorf's defensive lapses might keep this encounter on a knife-edge — after all, both clubs share a predilection for counter attacks and crosses.

Drawing attention to the elements, the weather might not play a significant role this time, allowing the game to flow more freely. This aligns with the 61% expectation for over 2.5 goals, echoing the attacking proclivities of both teams. Though the model favors a 1-1 draw at 11%, the edge leans towards a 2-1 finish for the hosts at 9%, suggesting that goals will be on the cards.

Fortuna Dusseldorf may have the upper hand, but TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II's xPoints edge (1.0 compared to 0.6) hints at their potential to spring a surprise. There’s a whisper of value in backing Fortuna Dusseldorf at odds of 1.80 with Bet365, though one should tread carefully. The most intriguing angle lies in the potential for goals, as the over 2.5 provides a compelling shout, tapping into the game's attacking dynamics that might just define this tussle in the 3. Liga.

Fortuna Düsseldorf

Form L

League ranking xG #14xGA #18xT #7xP/match #16Points #14

Key players

Fabian SchleusenerFxG 0.28 · xT -0.01
Steven Ako van der SlootRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.30
Tim OberdorfCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10

Hoffenheim II

Form LLLWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #12xT #12xP/match #14Points #13

Key players

Ayoube Amaimouni-EchghouyabRWxG 0.39 · xT 0.16
Deniz ZeitlerLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.09
Luka DjuricCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.15

Final score

0 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% · Draw 22% · Hoffenheim II 22%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - TSG HoffenheimBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,28fair 9,73+37 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Fortuna DüsseldorfBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,63fair 6,19-41 %

Miss

Match prediction: Fortuna Düsseldorf – Hoffenheim II

Predicted score matrix

Hoffenheim II →

Fortuna Düsseldorf →

0–04.6%

0–15.7%

0–24.2%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.9%

1–07.2%

1–110.8%

1–27.3%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.6%

2–19.2%

2–26.4%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.4%

3–03.8%

3–15.4%

3–23.7%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.8%

4+–02.5%

4+–13.5%

4+–22.4%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.1-07%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,75–1,40

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.75EV+1%

Over 2,561%

@1.45

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win56%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win56%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Lasse Finn Rieß to score11%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Denis Donkor to score15%
Yannik Luka Lührs to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Hoffenheim II22% probability@5.22PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
2 · Hoffenheim II22% probability@5.10BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
2 · Hoffenheim II22% probability@5.10BetssonEV+13%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Fortuna Düsseldorf	X	2 · Hoffenheim II
Betfair Exchange	1.09	1.09	1.09
Betsafe	1.48	4.50	EV+ 13% 5.10
Betsson	1.48	4.50	EV+ 13% 5.10
Nordicbet	1.48	4.50	EV+ 13% 5.10
Paddy Power	1.44	4.50	EV+ 11% 5.00
Pinnacle	1.51	EV+ 7% 4.84	EV+ 16% 5.22

Odds updated 15 Aug, 10:21

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Fortuna Düsseldorf win since 14 August — the odds have shortened from 1.57 to 1.51 (−4%).

1-4 %

63 %58 %

1.57 → 1.51

X+11 %

23 %18 %

4.37 → 4.84

2+17 %

22 %17 %

4.47 → 5.22

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fortuna Düsseldorf

Hoffenheim II

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fortuna Düsseldorf (1–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fortuna Düsseldorf

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fortuna Düsseldorf

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fortuna Düsseldorf	Hoffenheim II
Points	0	0
xPoints	0.6	1
xG per match	1.1	1.1
xGA per match	2.2	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.36	0.04
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.27

Playing style	Fortuna Düsseldorf	Hoffenheim II
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.24
Field tilt	0.6	0.46
xT per match	1.3	0.99
xTA per match	1.7	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	22	19
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.3
Entries into the box per match	13	11
Entries into the box against	20	14
Pass completion %	0.78	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.77
Passes per match	386	335
Passes against per match	271	280
Switches of play per match	29.5	30.1
Long balls per match	33	28

Set pieces	Fortuna Düsseldorf	Hoffenheim II
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	3.9	6
Corners against per match	4.9	4
xG per corner	0.02	0
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.17
First touch, defensive corners %	0.8	0.75

Other	Fortuna Düsseldorf	Hoffenheim II
Throw-in control	0.71	0.89

The goalkeepers	Lasse Finn Rieß (Fortuna Düsseldorf)	Hoffenheim II
Saves	5	–
Save %	71%	–
xG prevented	81%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

Fortuna Düsseldorf

Fixtures, form & tips

Hoffenheim II

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hoffenheim II according to our model?

The model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, draw 22%, Hoffenheim II 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.