Saarbrücken vs Grossaspach: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

3. Liga19 September 202615°22 km/h

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SaarbrückenPossession control

GrossaspachCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Saarbrücken (52%)

1 · Saarbrücken 52%X 24%24% Grossaspach · 2

52%

24%

Analysis: Saarbrücken – Grossaspach

Oscar Nilsson · 11 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The numbers suggest a 2-1 win for the home side is within reach, which aligns with the predicted probabilities and expected goal metrics.

Grossaspach, however, should not be underestimated in their ability to surprise. While their counter-attacking style might see them concede possession, it could also exploit gaps left by Saarbrücken's advanced positioning. Their expected goals per match (1.8) is competitive, hinting they might disrupt Saarbrücken’s defense more than expected. Nevertheless, their slightly higher expected goals against (1.8) compared to Saarbrücken’s (1.6) highlights vulnerabilities that the hosts could exploit.

The most probable scoreline of 1-1 (10%) suggests that Grossaspach could well find the back of the net, supported by a 64% chance of both teams scoring. Still, with Saarbrücken's superior xG (2.2) and overall points and xPoints advantage, the home side seems poised to edge out the visitors. Grossaspach’s style may create moments of uncertainty, but the analytical edge remains with Saarbrücken.

Bettors might find value in the over 2.5 goals market, especially given the 65% likelihood in the model. While the match might flirt with a stalemate, the hosts’ offensive consistency and Grossaspach's potential for counter-punching make a case for goals. Ultimately, Saarbrücken’s edge in form and expected metrics suggests a narrow victory is the likeliest outcome.

Saarbrücken

Form LWWLW

League ranking xG #1xGA #11xT #6xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Florian PickRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.36
Kai BrunkerFxG 0.53 · xT 0.16
Christian KühlwetterCAMxG 0.57 · xT 0.07

Grossaspach

Form WLLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #17xT #1xP/match #10Points #8

Key players

Marlon Freddy FaßFxG 0.44 · xT 0.01
Fabian EiseleFxG 0.72 · xT 0.06
Christian MistlCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Saarbrücken – Grossaspach

Predicted score matrix

Grossaspach →

Saarbrücken →

0–03.9%

0–14.6%

0–23.4%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.7%

1–06.7%

1–19.9%

1–26.6%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.9%

2–19.4%

2–26.5%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.4%

3–04.5%

3–16.2%

3–24.2%

3–31.9%

3–4+0.9%

4+–03.5%

4+–14.7%

4+–23.2%

4+–31.5%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.2-07%
4.1-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,96–1,37

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,535%

–

Over 2,565%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Saarbrücken to win52%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Saarbrücken to win52%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Florian Pick to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Florian Pick to score31%
Marius Kunde to be booked22%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Key facts

Saarbrucken have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Saarbrücken

Grossaspach

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Saarbrücken (14–7)

Grossaspach (2–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Saarbrücken

Grossaspach

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Saarbrücken

Grossaspach

The teams in numbers

Performance	Saarbrücken	Grossaspach
Points	9	6
xPoints	7.1	5.9
xG per match	2.2	1.8
xGA per match	1.6	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.21

Playing style	Saarbrücken	Grossaspach
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.59	0.65
xT per match	1.2	1.6
xTA per match	1.1	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	16	27
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.36
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.32
Entries into the box per match	14	22
Entries into the box against	14	14
Pass completion %	0.77	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.68
Passes per match	338	375
Passes against per match	325	286
Switches of play per match	33	22.4
Long balls per match	40	35

Set pieces	Saarbrücken	Grossaspach
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.03
Corners per match	6.2	6.5
Corners against per match	5	5.5
xG per corner	0.05	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.68

Other	Saarbrücken	Grossaspach
Throw-in control	0.75	0.73

The goalkeepers	Matteo Bignetti (Saarbrücken)	Maximilian Reule (Grossaspach)
Saves	15	16
Save %	68%	84%
xG prevented	38%	86%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Saarbrücken

Fixtures, form & tips

Grossaspach

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Saarbrücken vs Grossaspach according to our model?

The model gives Saarbrücken a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Saarbrücken 52%, draw 24%, Grossaspach 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.