Viktoria Köln vs Ingolstadt: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

3. Liga19 September 202615°13,8 mm22 km/h

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Viktoria KölnPossession control

IngolstadtPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Viktoria Köln (46%)

1 · Viktoria Köln 46%X 26%28% Ingolstadt · 2

46%

26%

28%

Analysis: Viktoria Köln – Ingolstadt

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

With Viktoria Köln holding a 46% win probability against Ingolstadt's 28%, the numbers lean towards the hosts. The edge in possession control should allow Viktoria Köln to dictate the rhythm. Their expected goals tally of 1.69 surpasses the visitors' 1.43, suggesting a slight upper hand in potential scoring opportunities. Historically, the head-to-head record is small and mixed, with Viktoria Köln leading with two wins out of four matches since 2024, but it's their form and expected goals that offer more insight.

The expected goals data indicates a likely Viktoria Köln advantage in what could be a controlled yet competitive match. Although Ingolstadt's xPoints are marginally higher at 6.1 compared to Köln's 5.7, this discrepancy isn't enough to shift the model's preference. Both teams emphasize possession, which could maintain a tight midfield battle. However, the model's lean towards over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 62% suggests that while controlled, the match might still see its share of goals.

Bettors might find an edge if bookmakers' odds on both teams scoring exceed what current numbers imply. Still, with the model's indicators pointing to a possible 2-1 win for Viktoria Köln, aligning bets with their win probability might be the prudent play.

Viktoria Köln

Form DLWWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #19xP/match #12Points #10

Key players

David OttoFxG 0.48 · xT 0.00
Tim KlossCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Tobias EisenhuthCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.15

Ingolstadt

Form WDDWL

League ranking xG #13xGA #10xT #16xP/match #8Points #13

Key players

Obed Chidindu UgonduFxG 0.74 · xT 0.01
Keanan BennettsLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16
Davide-Danilo SekulovicRWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Viktoria Köln – Ingolstadt

Predicted score matrix

Ingolstadt →

Viktoria Köln →

0–04.7%

0–16.0%

0–24.5%

0–32.2%

0–4+1.1%

1–07.1%

1–111.0%

1–27.6%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.8%

2–06.3%

2–19.0%

2–26.5%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.5%

3–15.1%

3–23.6%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.9%

4+–02.2%

4+–13.1%

4+–22.2%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.2-26%

Expected goals

1,69–1,43

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,540%

–

Over 2,560%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Viktoria Köln to win46%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Viktoria Köln to win46%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Jakob Sachse to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Jakob Sachse to score26%
Simon Lorenz to be booked22%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Viktoria Köln 2Draw 1Ingolstadt 1

Goals: 10–9 (⌀ 4,8)

Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Viktoria Köln

Ingolstadt

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Viktoria Köln (9–8)

Ingolstadt (5–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Viktoria Köln

Ingolstadt

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Viktoria Köln

Ingolstadt

The teams in numbers

Performance	Viktoria Köln	Ingolstadt
Points	6	5
xPoints	5.7	6.1
xG per match	1.8	1.3
xGA per match	1.2	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.37
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.21

Playing style	Viktoria Köln	Ingolstadt
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.52	0.26
xT per match	0.72	0.84
xTA per match	0.72	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	26	26
Pressing intensity	0.19	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.26
Entries into the box per match	8	10
Entries into the box against	9	17
Pass completion %	0.82	0.68
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.68
Passes per match	478	256
Passes against per match	298	402
Switches of play per match	15	18.7
Long balls per match	29	35

Set pieces	Viktoria Köln	Ingolstadt
xG from free kicks	0	0.03
Corners per match	5	2.8
Corners against per match	4.8	7.1
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.2	0.27
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.57

Other	Viktoria Köln	Ingolstadt
Throw-in control	0.71	0.65

The goalkeepers	Arne Schulz (Viktoria Köln)	David Klein (Ingolstadt)
Saves	6	15
Save %	43%	71%
xG prevented	33%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Viktoria Köln

Fixtures, form & tips

Ingolstadt

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Viktoria Köln vs Ingolstadt according to our model?

The model gives Viktoria Köln a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viktoria Köln 46%, draw 26%, Ingolstadt 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.