3. Liga18°8,1 mm12 km/h

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    Waldhof MannheimWaldhof MannheimCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Rot-Weiss EssenRot-Weiss EssenPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Rot-Weiss Essen (39%)Soft draw

    Waldhof Mannheim – Rot-Weiss Essen · 3. Liga

    1 · Waldhof Mannheim 34%X 27%39% Rot-Weiss Essen · 2

    Analysis: Waldhof Mannheim – Rot-Weiss Essen

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Four encounters since 2024 show a deadlock between Waldhof Mannheim and Rot-Weiss Essen, each taking two victories. This limited head-to-head sample suggests we should weigh recent form and expected goals more heavily. Both teams have demonstrated the ability to score against one another, hinting at a potentially balanced clash.

    Turning to form, the visitors from Essen hold a slight edge. With 7 points compared to Mannheim's 4, and superior expected points (6.6 vs 5.8), Essen appears more consistent. Their possession-based style contrasts with Mannheim's counter-attacking approach, which might struggle under the predicted rain that favors teams less reliant on quick transitions.

    Expected goals data further tilts the scales towards Rot-Weiss Essen. They lead slightly in xG per match at 1.5 compared to Mannheim’s 1.4 and boast a tighter defense with an xGA of 1.1, underscoring their ability to control matches. The model sees the visitors as having a 39% chance of winning, compared to Mannheim's 34%, with a draw at 27%. It's a narrow edge, but one that could prove decisive.

    The betting angle lies in the value offered by a Rot-Weiss Essen victory. Priced by Bet365 at 2.50, this outcome aligns with the model's lean towards Essen. Given the anticipated conditions and the team's statistical advantages, an away win of 2-1 seems plausible. The over 2.5 goals market also holds interest, though the expected rain tempers the likelihood slightly despite the model's 61% over 2.5 goals prediction.

    Waldhof MannheimWaldhof Mannheim
    Form LWDLL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #4xP/match #11Points #15
    Key players
    • Lovis BierschenkLWxG 0.42 · xT 0.20
    • Julian UlbrichtLWxG 0.47 · xT -0.01
    • Gonçalo de Almeida GregórioCAMxG 0.61 · xT -0.05
    Rot-Weiss EssenRot-Weiss Essen
    Form WLWDW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #3xT #5xP/match #6Points #6
    Key players
    • Ben HuningCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
    • Janne SietanCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
    • Max GeschwillCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16

    Match prediction: Waldhof Mannheim – Rot-Weiss Essen

    Predicted score matrix

    Rot-Weiss Essen →
    Waldhof Mannheim →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.5%
    0–16.5%
    0–25.5%
    0–33.0%
    0–4+1.7%
    1
    1–06.2%
    1–110.9%
    1–28.5%
    1–34.6%
    1–4+2.7%
    2
    2–05.1%
    2–18.2%
    2–26.6%
    2–33.6%
    2–4+2.1%
    3
    3–02.6%
    3–14.2%
    3–23.4%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+1.1%
    4+
    4+–01.4%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.6%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.0-16%
    Expected goals
    1,55–1,62
    Both teams to score
    63%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,539%
    –
    Over 2,561%
    –

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Rot-Weiss Essen or draw (X2)64%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.90

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Rot-Weiss Essen or draw (X2)64%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Torben Müsel to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score63%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Torben Müsel to score27%
    • Luca Juliano Bazzoli to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Waldhof Mannheim 2Draw 0Rot-Weiss Essen 2
    Goals: 7–3 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Waldhof Mannheim
    Rot-Weiss Essen
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Waldhof Mannheim (7–8)
    Rot-Weiss Essen (4–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Waldhof Mannheim
    Lukas Klunter: 155 passningar, xT 0.51KlunterFavour Jidechi Okeke: 150 passningar, xT 0.9OkekeClaudio Matthias Kammerknecht: 133 passningar, xT 0.44KammerknechtThijmen Joel Sander Nijhuis: 106 passningar, xT 0.19NijhuisJulian Rieckmann: 100 passningar, xT 0.36RieckmannOwono-Darnell Keumo: 89 passningar, xT 0.85KeumoMaximilian Thalhammer: 80 passningar, xT 0.16ThalhammerVincent Thill: 71 passningar, xT 0.1ThillMoritz Malik Polte: 54 passningar, xT 0.08PolteLovis Bierschenk: 49 passningar, xT 0.22BierschenkDiego Michel: 47 passningar, xT 0.37Michel
    Rot-Weiss Essen
    Max Geschwill: 214 passningar, xT 0.62GeschwillBen Huning: 179 passningar, xT 0.3HuningJakob Golz: 130 passningar, xT 0.27GolzJanne Sietan: 126 passningar, xT 0.16SietanJannik Hofmann: 119 passningar, xT 0.62HofmannFranci Clarck Bouebari Kitsamoutse: 101 passningar, xT 0.83KitsamoutseTony Menzel: 86 passningar, xT -0.14MenzelNoah Phil Pesch: 57 passningar, xT 0.37PeschSemir Telalović: 40 passningar, xT 0.36TelalovićMarvin Ayhan Obuz: 32 passningar, xT 0.33ObuzMichał Kostka: 31 passningar, xT 0.09Kostka
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Waldhof Mannheim
    Lukas Klunter: 155 passningar, xT 0.51KlunterFavour Jidechi Okeke: 150 passningar, xT 0.9OkekeClaudio Matthias Kammerknecht: 133 passningar, xT 0.44KammerknechtThijmen Joel Sander Nijhuis: 106 passningar, xT 0.19NijhuisJulian Rieckmann: 100 passningar, xT 0.36RieckmannOwono-Darnell Keumo: 89 passningar, xT 0.85KeumoMaximilian Thalhammer: 80 passningar, xT 0.16ThalhammerVincent Thill: 71 passningar, xT 0.1ThillMoritz Malik Polte: 54 passningar, xT 0.08PolteLovis Bierschenk: 49 passningar, xT 0.22BierschenkDiego Michel: 47 passningar, xT 0.37Michel
    Rot-Weiss Essen
    Max Geschwill: 214 passningar, xT 0.62GeschwillBen Huning: 179 passningar, xT 0.3HuningJakob Golz: 130 passningar, xT 0.27GolzJanne Sietan: 126 passningar, xT 0.16SietanJannik Hofmann: 119 passningar, xT 0.62HofmannFranci Clarck Bouebari Kitsamoutse: 101 passningar, xT 0.83KitsamoutseTony Menzel: 86 passningar, xT -0.14MenzelNoah Phil Pesch: 57 passningar, xT 0.37PeschSemir Telalović: 40 passningar, xT 0.36TelalovićMarvin Ayhan Obuz: 32 passningar, xT 0.33ObuzMichał Kostka: 31 passningar, xT 0.09Kostka

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceWaldhof MannheimRot-Weiss Essen
    Points47
    xPoints5.86.6
    xG per match1.41.5
    xGA per match1.31.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.20.28
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.180.02
    Playing styleWaldhof MannheimRot-Weiss Essen
    Build-up efficiency0.320.32
    Field tilt0.50.5
    xT per match1.31.2
    xTA per match0.930.83
    Won balls, offensive half2328
    Pressing intensity0.20.22
    Pressing efficiency0.330.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.290.24
    Entries into the box per match1514
    Entries into the box against128
    Pass completion %0.740.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.67
    Passes per match322306
    Passes against per match331341
    Switches of play per match22.922
    Long balls per match3342
    Set piecesWaldhof MannheimRot-Weiss Essen
    xG from free kicks0.030.01
    Corners per match45.8
    Corners against per match44.5
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.040.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.35
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.78
    OtherWaldhof MannheimRot-Weiss Essen
    Throw-in control0.780.83
    The goalkeepersThijmen Joel Sander Nijhuis (Waldhof Mannheim)Jakob Golz (Rot-Weiss Essen)
    Saves712
    Save %64%71%
    xG prevented73%35%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Waldhof Mannheim
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Rot-Weiss Essen
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Waldhof Mannheim vs Rot-Weiss Essen according to our model?

    The model gives Rot-Weiss Essen a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Waldhof Mannheim 34%, draw 27%, Rot-Weiss Essen 39%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.