FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction: Home win 41% (11 Oct 2026)

Bundesliga11 October 2026RheinEnergieStadion, Köln12°16 km/h

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FC KölnLow block & direct

Borussia MönchengladbachBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · FC Köln (41%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 21.00 (+21 %)

1 · FC Köln 41%X 29%30% Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2

41%

29%

30%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: FC Köln – Borussia Mönchengladbach

Oscar Nilsson · 2 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: FC Köln boast an impressive run, netting in 14 consecutive league matches. This scoring consistency contrasts sharply with Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent form, as the visitors have suffered four straight defeats. The model favors Köln with a 41% chance of winning, supported by superior xPoints and a striking advantage in xGA per match—1.7 for Köln against Gladbach's worrying 2.9. While Gladbach's style is balanced and physical, their recent struggles suggest vulnerabilities that Köln can exploit.

Head-to-head, the teams have clashed just twice since 2022, producing one draw and one win for Gladbach. This limited sample hardly outweighs Köln's current form and expected goals superiority. The hosts generate 2.0 xG per match compared to Gladbach's 1.7, reflecting a more potent attack. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 2-1 underscore a close contest but lean towards a home edge.

Rain is expected, potentially dampening goal totals despite a 56% projection for over 2.5 goals. However, Köln's attack and Gladbach's defensive woes point to a 2-1 prediction. With a 41% win probability and Köln's recent performances, backing the hosts looks like the stronger side of this matchup.

FC Köln

Form LWLDL

League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #12xP/match #6Points #13

Key players

Thijs DallingaFxG 1.19 · xT 0.01
Marius BülterFxG 1.31 · xT 0.26
Linton MainaFxG 0.05 · xT 0.13

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #18xT #11xP/match #15Points #18

Key players

Isac Alexi Sivert LidbergFxG 0.25 · xT 0.10
Axel Hugo BolinFxG 0.36 · xT 0.17
Franck HonoratRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.25

Match prediction: FC Köln – Borussia Mönchengladbach

Predicted score matrix

Borussia Mönchengladbach →

FC Köln →

0–05.8%

0–16.7%

0–24.6%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.9%

1–08.4%

1–111.7%

1–27.4%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.4%

2–07.0%

2–19.2%

2–26.0%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.8%

3–14.9%

3–23.2%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.8%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,61–1,30

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.67EV+18%

Over 2,556%

@1.49

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance FC Köln or draw (1X)69%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance FC Köln or draw (1X)69%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Shuto Machino to score23%
Joseph Michael Scally to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.56% probability@21.00BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
Under 0.56% probability@21.00NordicbetEV+21%reference odds
Under 2.544% probability@2.67BetsafeEV+18%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · FC Köln	X	2 · Borussia Mönchengladbach
Betsafe	1.95	EV+ 10% 3.80	EV+ 2% 3.40
LeoVegas	2.02	EV+ 13% 3.90	3.25
Nordicbet	1.95	EV+ 10% 3.80	EV+ 2% 3.40

Odds updated 4 Oct, 16:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

50 %45 %

1.98 → 2.02

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.90 → 3.90

2-3 %

31 %26 %

3.35 → 3.25

Over 2,5+1 %

66 %61 %

1.47 → 1.48

LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

FC Köln 0Draw 1Borussia Mönchengladbach 1

Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

Key facts

FC Koln have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.
Borussia Monchengladbach have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

FC Köln

Borussia Mönchengladbach

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

FC Köln (6–9)

Borussia Mönchengladbach (6–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

FC Köln

Borussia Mönchengladbach

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

FC Köln

Borussia Mönchengladbach

The teams in numbers

Performance	FC Köln	Borussia Mönchengladbach
Points	4	0
xPoints	6.6	3.7
xG per match	2	1.7
xGA per match	1.7	2.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.6

Playing style	FC Köln	Borussia Mönchengladbach
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.28
Field tilt	0.43	0.42
xT per match	1	1.1
xTA per match	1.3	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	19	24
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.2
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	16	18
Pass completion %	0.78	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.68
Passes per match	377	334
Passes against per match	395	386
Switches of play per match	24.4	17.6
Long balls per match	29	28

Set pieces	FC Köln	Borussia Mönchengladbach
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.08
Corners per match	6.8	6.7
Corners against per match	6.3	5.2
xG per corner	0.05	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.13
First touch, offensive corners %	0.22	0.26
First touch, defensive corners %	0.48	0.55

Other	FC Köln	Borussia Mönchengladbach
Throw-in control	0.77	0.73

The goalkeepers	Marvin Schwäbe (FC Köln)	Moritz Nicolas (Borussia Mönchengladbach)
Saves	15	24
Save %	63%	60%
xG prevented	61%	38%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

FC Köln

Fixtures, form & tips

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach according to our model?

The model gives FC Köln a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Köln 41%, draw 29%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.