Union Berlin vs Elversberg Prediction: Away win 36% (10 Oct 2026)

Bundesliga10 October 2026Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin12°0,6 mm16 km/h

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Union BerlinLow block & direct

ElversbergLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Elversberg (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 21.00 (+103 %)

1 · Union Berlin 36%X 28%36% Elversberg · 2

36%

28%

36%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Union Berlin – Elversberg

Anna Karlsson · 2 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The model's lean towards a draw at 28% and the most likely scorelines being 1-1, 1-0, and 0-1, further emphasize a tight affair.

This should be corrected, as the model's actual lean is toward SV 07 Elversberg (36%), not the draw. The rest of the text is accurate.

Corrected text:

The most striking feature of the Union Berlin versus Elversberg matchup is the model's equal probability for both teams to win, each at 36%. This presents an unusual tension, especially since the host team has lost three consecutive matches. The struggle is evident not only in results but also in the underlying numbers. With Union Berlin's xG at 1.2 and xGA at a worrying 2.5, the model's lack of preference for them starts to make sense.

Elversberg, while also not a powerhouse, holds a slight statistical edge. Their xG of 1.4 and xGA of 2.1 suggest a marginally more balanced side. The visitors also have seven points against Union's one, backed by an xPoints tally of 5.6 to Berlin's 3.2. Although both teams favor a low defense and direct approach, Elversberg's execution seems more effective at this stage.

Given the narrow expected goals — 1.21 for the hosts and 1.17 for the visitors — the likelihood of a low-scoring game is reinforced. The model's overall lean is towards SV 07 Elversberg, though the draw sits close behind at 28%, and the most likely scorelines being 1-1, 1-0, and 0-1 further emphasize a tight affair. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at just 42%, signaling a strong chance for fewer goals.

For bettors, the under goals market offers considerable value. Under 2.5 goals at odds 2.375 with LeoVegas is particularly enticing, with the model assigning a 58% probability — a striking 37% edge. While under 3.5 at 1.571 also shows value, the sharper play seems to be targeting the lowest goal line. The defensive vulnerabilities and direct styles of play might not yield a glut of goals, but they offer a tantalizing betting opportunity.

Union Berlin

Form WDLLL

League ranking xG #15xGA #17xT #15xP/match #18Points #17

Key players

Emmanuel Delan Junior Latte LathLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.02
Josip JuranovicRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
Leopold QuerfeldCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.15

Elversberg

Form WWLD

League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #18xP/match #9Points #7

Key players

Lukas PetkovRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.24
Francis-Ikechukwu OnyekaLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.05
Felix KeidelRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Union Berlin – Elversberg

Predicted score matrix

Elversberg →

Union Berlin →

0–09.6%

0–110.4%

0–26.3%

0–32.5%

0–4+0.9%

1–010.8%

1–113.5%

1–27.6%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.1%

2–06.8%

2–17.9%

2–24.6%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.7%

3–13.2%

3–21.9%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-010%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,21–1,17

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@2.47EV+42%

Over 2,542%

@1.56

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Elversberg or draw (X2)63%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Elversberg or draw (X2)63%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Luca Pascal Schnellbacher to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Ilyas Ansah to score24%
Rani Khedira to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.510% probability@21.00BetsafeEV+103%reference odds
Under 0.510% probability@21.00NordicbetEV+103%reference odds
Under 1.531% probability@5.01BetsafeEV+55%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Union Berlin	X	2 · Elversberg
Betsafe	2.30	EV+ 2% 3.60	EV+ 1% 2.82
LeoVegas	2.25	EV+ 6% 3.75	EV+ 3% 2.88
Nordicbet	2.30	EV+ 2% 3.60	EV+ 1% 2.82

Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

45 %40 %

2.20 → 2.25

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.75 → 3.75

2-1 %

35 %30 %

2.90 → 2.88

Over 2,5+1 %

64 %59 %

1.52 → 1.53

LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Union Berlin have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Union Berlin

Elversberg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Union Berlin (4–17)

Elversberg (8–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Union Berlin

Elversberg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Union Berlin

Elversberg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Union Berlin	Elversberg
Points	1	7
xPoints	3.2	5.6
xG per match	1.2	1.4
xGA per match	2.5	2.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.67
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.45	0.28

Playing style	Union Berlin	Elversberg
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.3	0.23
xT per match	0.88	0.59
xTA per match	1.8	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	29	18
Pressing intensity	0.28	0.28
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.2
Entries into the box per match	12	8
Entries into the box against	18	22
Pass completion %	0.69	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.66
Passes per match	285	299
Passes against per match	387	471
Switches of play per match	24.4	17.6
Long balls per match	30	22

Set pieces	Union Berlin	Elversberg
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.16
Corners per match	2.9	3.7
Corners against per match	6.6	7.2
xG per corner	0.05	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.58	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.72

Other	Union Berlin	Elversberg
Throw-in control	0.75	0.73

The goalkeepers	Frederik Ronnow (Union Berlin)	Maximilian Rohr (Elversberg)
Saves	18	11
Save %	56%	100%
xG prevented	38%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Union Berlin

Fixtures, form & tips

Elversberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Union Berlin vs Elversberg according to our model?

The model gives Elversberg a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Union Berlin 36%, draw 28%, Elversberg 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.