01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Stuttgart to win46%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Bundesliga13°5,7 mm18 km/h
Läs på svenska
PaderbornPossession controlvs
StuttgartLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Stuttgart (46%)Best value by the model: 1 · Paderborn @ 4.85 (+48 %)
Paderborn vs Stuttgart · Bundesliga
1 · Paderborn 31%X 23%46% Stuttgart · 2
31%
23%
46%
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Paderborn – Stuttgart
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: This small head-to-head sample offers scant insight into their current form, which suggests a more balanced affair. The hosts have a slight edge in both points and expected points, while Stuttgart's xG suggests a more potent attack.
Paderborn's approach relies heavily on possession control, contrasting Stuttgart's defensive posture and direct play. The visitors, despite their low point tally, generate a promising xG of 1.5 per match compared to Paderborn's 0.88. This suggests Stuttgart’s offensive efforts could find some joy against a Paderborn side that allows an xGA of 1.6. Stuttgart's defensive frailties are apparent, with an xGA of 2.3, which should give Paderborn opportunities.
Weather conditions add another layer, with 7.8 mm of rain expected, potentially hindering fluid attacking play and encouraging a more cautious approach. This is factored into the model's numbers, which still lean towards a high likelihood of both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals hitting at 64%.
Value hunters should note the odds with LeoVegas. Paderborn at 4.7 offers a significant edge, while the draw at 4.6 presents a smaller, yet notable value. The more conservative angle, aligning with my proclivity towards steadiness over spectacle, is under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.769, carrying a modest 2% edge. Expect Stuttgart to edge a tight contest 1-2, but the under remains the safer financial play.
PaderbornForm DLLW
League ranking xG #17xGA #9xT #17xP/match #13Points #12
Key players
- Laurin CurdaRWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.26
- Mattes HansenCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
- Raphael ObermairLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.17
StuttgartForm DLWLL
League ranking xG #12xGA #15xT #10xP/match #17Points #15
Key players
- Maximilian MittelstädtLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.33
- Chris FuhrichLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.19
- Ermedin DemirovićFxG 0.39 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: Paderborn – Stuttgart
Predicted score matrix
Stuttgart →
Paderborn →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.9%
0–16.7%
0–26.6%
0–34.2%
0–4+3.1%
1
1–04.9%
1–110.1%
1–29.3%
1–35.9%
1–4+4.3%
2
2–03.6%
2–16.9%
2–26.5%
2–34.1%
2–4+3.0%
3
3–01.7%
3–13.2%
3–23.1%
3–31.9%
3–4+1.4%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.7%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-17%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.0-27%
Expected goals
1,41–1,90
Both teams to score
65%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
220%
322%
418%
5+24%
Under 2,536%
@2.97EV+6%
Over 2,564%
@1.41
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Stuttgart to win46%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Nikolas Terkelsen Nartey to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score65%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Nikolas Terkelsen Nartey to score29%
- Angelo Stiller to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Paderborn31% probability@4.85BetsafeEV+48%reference odds
- 1 · Paderborn31% probability@4.85NordicbetEV+48%reference odds
- 1 · Paderborn31% probability@4.75LeoVegasEV+45%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Paderborn | X | 2 · Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 48% 4.85 | EV+ 1% 4.30 | 1.60 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 45% 4.75 | EV+ 8% 4.60 | 1.58 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 48% 4.85 | EV+ 1% 4.30 | 1.60 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36
Odds movement
1+1 %
23 %18 %
4.70 → 4.75
X0 %
23 %18 %
4.60 → 4.60
2-1 %
62 %57 %
1.60 → 1.58
Over 2,50 %
70 %65 %
1.38 → 1.38
LeoVegas · 7 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Paderborn
Stuttgart
Paderborn (3–5)
Stuttgart (6–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Paderborn
Stuttgart
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Paderborn
Stuttgart
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Paderborn | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 3 |
| xPoints | 4.6 | 3.3 |
| xG per match | 0.88 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.49 |
| Playing style | Paderborn | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.37 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 0.81 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 21 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 361 | 411 |
| Passes against per match | 432 | 349 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.1 | 23.4 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Paderborn | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 6.5 |
| Corners against per match | 6.8 | 6 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.12 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.7 | 0.58 |
| Other | Paderborn | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.84 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Nahuel Nicolas Noll (Paderborn) | Fabian Bredlow (Stuttgart) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 15 |
| Save % | 74% | 65% |
| xG prevented | 68% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen9 October 2026
- Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV10 October 2026
- Augsburg – Bayern München10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig – Eintracht Frankfurt10 October 2026
- Mainz – Bayer Leverkusen10 October 2026
- Union Berlin – Elversberg10 October 2026
- FC Köln – Borussia Mönchengladbach11 October 2026
- Freiburg – Schalke 0411 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Paderborn vs Stuttgart according to our model?
The model gives Stuttgart a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Paderborn 31%, draw 23%, Stuttgart 46%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.