01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Hoffenheim to win62%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
BundesligaPreZero Arena, Sinsheim13°30,9 mm26 km/h
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HoffenheimCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Hamburger SVLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Hoffenheim (62%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.00 (+18 %)
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV · Bundesliga
1 · Hoffenheim 62%X 22%16% Hamburger SV · 2
62%
22%
16%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Hoffenheim's 62% win probability highlights their edge over Hamburger SV, backed by a solid run in their head-to-head matchups and stronger underlying metrics. The hosts average 1.7 xG per match compared to the visitors' 0.85, a clear indication of their superior attacking prowess. Despite the rain forecast, which might dampen goal-scoring opportunities, Hoffenheim’s counter-attack strategy should find gaps in Hamburger's low defense.
The most likely outcomes suggest a narrow victory for the home side, with 2-1, 1-1, and 2-0 being the most probable scorelines. While the history is in Hoffenheim's favor, the small sample size of two encounters since 2022 means current form and xG metrics provide a clearer picture. Hamburger's defensive vulnerabilities are exposed by their higher xGA of 2.3, which the hosts are primed to exploit given their counter-attacking style of play and ability to create chances soon after regaining possession.
For bettors, the model identifies value in the draw at odds of 5.0 with LeoVegas, carrying an 8% edge. There's also an attractive opportunity under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.769, given the potential weather impact. Despite the lean towards over 2.5 goals, the rain might suppress the scoring, making unders a viable bet.
HoffenheimForm LLLWL
League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #4xP/match #11Points #14
Key players
- Adam HložekFxG 0.52 · xT 0.07
- Koki MachidaCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
- Vladimír CoufalRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.35
Hamburger SVForm DLLLW
League ranking xG #18xGA #16xT #16xP/match #16Points #16
Key players
- Yussuf PoulsenFxG 0.65 · xT 0.02
- Albert Grønbæk ErlykkeLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.18
- Albert Sambi LokongaCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
Match prediction: Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV
Predicted score matrix
Hamburger SV →
Hoffenheim →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.6%
0–14.3%
0–22.4%
0–30.9%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–08.7%
1–19.8%
1–25.1%
1–31.8%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.4%
2–19.9%
2–25.3%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–06.5%
3–16.9%
3–23.6%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–05.4%
4+–15.8%
4+–23.1%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-110%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,08–1,06
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
@3.00EV+18%
Over 2,561%
@1.40
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Hoffenheim to win62%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Fisnik Asllani to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Fisnik Asllani to score33%
- Leon Avdullahu to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.539% probability@3.00BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
- Under 2.539% probability@3.00NordicbetEV+18%reference odds
- Under 1.518% probability@6.50BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hoffenheim | X | 2 · Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.41 | EV+ 1% 4.70 | EV+ 8% 6.70 |
| LeoVegas | 1.42 | EV+ 12% 5.20 | EV+ 1% 6.25 |
| Nordicbet | 1.41 | EV+ 1% 4.70 | EV+ 8% 6.70 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36
Odds movement
10 %
69 %64 %
1.42 → 1.42
X+4 %
21 %16 %
5.00 → 5.20
20 %
18 %13 %
6.25 → 6.25
Over 2,50 %
70 %65 %
1.38 → 1.38
LeoVegas · 9 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesHoffenheim 2Draw 0Hamburger SV 0
Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Hoffenheim (7–10)
Hamburger SV (2–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 3 |
| xPoints | 5.1 | 3.4 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 0.85 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.74 |
| Playing style | Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.7 | 0.32 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 0.83 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 32 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 24 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 417 | 302 |
| Passes against per match | 293 | 465 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.9 | 12 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 6.7 | 3.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.27 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| Other | Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.81 |
| The goalkeepers | Oliver Baumann (Hoffenheim) | Daniel Heuer Fernandes (Hamburger SV) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 13 |
| Save % | 55% | 52% |
| xG prevented | 50% | 32% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen9 October 2026
- Augsburg – Bayern München10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig – Eintracht Frankfurt10 October 2026
- Mainz – Bayer Leverkusen10 October 2026
- Union Berlin – Elversberg10 October 2026
- Paderborn – Stuttgart10 October 2026
- FC Köln – Borussia Mönchengladbach11 October 2026
- Freiburg – Schalke 0411 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV according to our model?
The model gives Hoffenheim a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hoffenheim 62%, draw 22%, Hamburger SV 16%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.