01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Freiburg to win64%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
BundesligaEuropa-Park Stadion, Freiburg12°1,2 mm19 km/h
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FreiburgPossession controlvs
Schalke 04Low block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Freiburg (64%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.36 (+11 %)
Freiburg vs Schalke 04 · Bundesliga
1 · Freiburg 64%X 22%14% Schalke 04 · 2
64%
22%
14%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Freiburg – Schalke 04
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Freiburg holds a slim edge over Schalke 04 in season form, but it's not an overwhelming advantage given the numbers involved. What's more pertinent is each team's current form and expected goals, where Freiburg's recent performances and underlying metrics present a compelling case for their superiority. The hosts remain unbeaten in their last five league matches, a streak built on solid defensive foundations and effective possession control.
The numbers tell a clear story: Freiburg's expected goals per match (2.2) dwarf Schalke's (1.2). Meanwhile, the expected goals against further illustrate the defensive chasm, with the home side allowing just 0.75 xGA per match compared to Schalke's worrying 2.1. These figures suggest a narrative of dominance for the hosts, particularly in the defensive third, where Schalke's direct and defensive style seems ill-equipped to break through.
The model's probabilities heavily favor Freiburg, assigning them a 64% chance of victory. This is mirrored in the most likely scorelines, which give a 13% probability for a 2-0 home win and 12% for a 1-0 result. Despite the 53% lean towards over 2.5 goals, the expected rain could dampen the scoring potential, favoring a more controlled, lower-scoring affair. In such conditions, Freiburg's possession style is likely to shine, limiting Schalke's already sparse attacking opportunities.
FreiburgForm WWWWD
League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #7xP/match #2Points #2
Key players
- Igor MatanovicFxG 0.55 · xT 0.25
- Jordy MakengoLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
- Maximilian EggesteinCDMxG 0.32 · xT 0.17
Schalke 04Form LLDWD
League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #14xP/match #10Points #10
Key players
- Adil AouchicheLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.28
- Chukwubuike Junior AdamuRWxG 0.72 · xT 0.09
- Nikola KaticCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Freiburg – Schalke 04
Predicted score matrix
Schalke 04 →
Freiburg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.4%
0–14.4%
0–21.8%
0–30.5%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–012.1%
1–19.8%
1–23.7%
1–30.9%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–012.5%
2–19.6%
2–23.7%
2–31.0%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–08.5%
3–16.5%
3–22.5%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–06.8%
4+–15.3%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-013%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
2,02–0,77
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.36EV+11%
Over 2,553%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Freiburg to win64%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Lucas Höler to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Lucas Höler to score27%
- Nikola Katić to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.547% probability@2.36BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
- Under 2.547% probability@2.36NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
- Under 2.547% probability@2.35LeoVegasEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Freiburg | X | 2 · Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 4% 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.85 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 5% 1.64 | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 4% 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.85 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 1.63 | 3.91 | 5.31 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 17:36
Statistics
Key facts
- Freiburg are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Freiburg
Schalke 04
Freiburg (12–3)
Schalke 04 (3–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Freiburg
Schalke 04
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Freiburg
Schalke 04
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Freiburg | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 5 |
| xPoints | 7.7 | 5.2 |
| xG per match | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 0.75 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.58 |
| Playing style | Freiburg | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.26 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.92 |
| xTA per match | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.65 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 408 | 229 |
| Passes against per match | 343 | 495 |
| Switches of play per match | 26 | 8.4 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 21 |
| Set pieces | Freiburg | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 5.4 | 3 |
| Corners against per match | 3.8 | 7.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.47 |
| Other | Freiburg | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.82 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Mio Backhaus (Freiburg) | Loris Karius (Schalke 04) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 23 |
| Save % | 67% | 85% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 62% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Augsburg – Bayern München10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig – Eintracht Frankfurt10 October 2026
- Mainz – Bayer Leverkusen10 October 2026
- Union Berlin – Elversberg10 October 2026
- Paderborn – Stuttgart10 October 2026
- FC Köln – Borussia Mönchengladbach11 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Freiburg vs Schalke 04 according to our model?
The model gives Freiburg a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Freiburg 64%, draw 22%, Schalke 04 14%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.