Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Bundesliga12 September 2026WWK Arena, Augsburg16°7 km/h

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AugsburgCounter-attacks & crosses

Bayer LeverkusenPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Bayer Leverkusen (49%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.14 (+13 %)

1 · Augsburg 24%X 27%49% Bayer Leverkusen · 2

24%

27%

49%

Analysis: Augsburg – Bayer Leverkusen

Anna Karlsson · 11 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

In the clash between Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen, the tactical battle lines are clearly drawn. The hosts lean on counter attacks and crosses, while the visitors prefer a possession-based game with a high press. This stylistic contrast suggests a match where Augsburg will likely concede possession, seeking opportunities to exploit the gaps left by Leverkusen's aggressive positioning.

Despite Augsburg's advantage in points and xPoints since 2022, with 6 points to Leverkusen's 3, the head-to-head record is split evenly with two wins apiece. However, this small sample size means the overall form and expected goal statistics carry more weight. Leverkusen's impressive run of scoring in 14 consecutive league matches underlines their attacking prowess, with a model probability of 49% backing them to come out on top.

The expected goals also favor Leverkusen (1.89) over Augsburg (1.42), suggesting a higher likelihood of the visitors finding the back of the net more frequently. This aligns with the model's most likely scoreline of 1-2. Yet, the probabilities for over 2.5 goals (64%) and both teams to score (65%) hint at a competitive encounter. Here lies the tension: can Augsburg disrupt Leverkusen's rhythm enough to swing the game in their favor?

For those scanning the betting landscape, the draw at odds of 3.85 with Betsson presents a 5% edge, reflecting the 27% model probability. Additionally, the under 2.5 goals offers value at odds of 2.91, available with both Betsafe and Betsson, given the model's 36% estimation. While the numbers hint at Leverkusen's edge, these value bets could be a shrewd play in a match where Augsburg's counter-punches might just unsettle their more fancied guests.

Augsburg

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #9xT #3xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Michael GregoritschFxG 0.71 · xT 0.00
Fabian RiederCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.13
Marius WolfRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.72

Bayer Leverkusen

Form WLDLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #6xT #1xP/match #9Points #11

Key players

Patrik SchickFxG 0.92 · xT -0.03
Ibrahim MazaFxG 0.37 · xT 0.75
Edmond TapsobaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Augsburg – Bayer Leverkusen

Predicted score matrix

Bayer Leverkusen →

Augsburg →

0–03.9%

0–16.6%

0–26.5%

0–34.1%

0–4+3.0%

1–04.9%

1–110.1%

1–29.3%

1–35.8%

1–4+4.3%

2–03.7%

2–17.0%

2–26.6%

2–34.1%

2–4+3.0%

3–01.7%

3–13.3%

3–23.1%

3–32.0%

3–4+1.4%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.5%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-29%
3.2-17%
4.0-17%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,42–1,89

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

@2.91EV+4%

Over 2,564%

@1.42

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bayer Leverkusen to win49%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bayer Leverkusen to win49%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Patrik Schick to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Patrik Schick to score31%
Han-Noah Massengo to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw27% probability@4.14PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
X · Draw27% probability@3.85BetssonEV+5%reference odds
Under 3.558% probability@1.81PinnacleEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Augsburg	X	2 · Bayer Leverkusen
Betsafe	3.90	EV+ 4% 3.80	1.82
Betsson	3.90	EV+ 5% 3.85	1.82
Nordicbet	3.90	EV+ 4% 3.80	1.82
Pinnacle	3.96	EV+ 13% 4.14	1.83

Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:39

Odds movement

1-4 %

26 %21 %

4.12 → 3.96

X-1 %

25 %20 %

4.18 → 4.14

2+6 %

56 %51 %

1.74 → 1.83

Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Augsburg 2Draw 0Bayer Leverkusen 2

Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

Key facts

Bayer Leverkusen have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Augsburg

Bayer Leverkusen

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Augsburg (7–1)

Bayer Leverkusen (6–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Augsburg

Bayer Leverkusen

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Augsburg

Bayer Leverkusen

The teams in numbers

Performance	Augsburg	Bayer Leverkusen
Points	6	3
xPoints	4.3	3.1
xG per match	2.9	2.6
xGA per match	1.6	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.96	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.48	0.44

Playing style	Augsburg	Bayer Leverkusen
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.43	0.75
xT per match	1.8	2.6
xTA per match	1.9	0.51
Won balls, offensive half	25	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.41
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.32
Entries into the box per match	17	22
Entries into the box against	18	8
Pass completion %	0.72	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.79
Passes per match	311	532
Passes against per match	429	240
Switches of play per match	19.4	33.6
Long balls per match	26	39

Set pieces	Augsburg	Bayer Leverkusen
xG from free kicks	0	0.03
Corners per match	7.6	7
Corners against per match	6.1	2.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.53	0.64
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.6

Other	Augsburg	Bayer Leverkusen
Throw-in control	0.62	0.83

The goalkeepers	Finn Dahmen (Augsburg)	Mark Flekken (Bayer Leverkusen)
Saves	11	3
Save %	92%	50%
xG prevented	87%	38%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Augsburg

Fixtures, form & tips

Bayer Leverkusen

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen according to our model?

The model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Augsburg 24%, draw 27%, Bayer Leverkusen 49%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.