Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Bundesliga12 September 2026PreZero Arena, Sinsheim18°12 km/h

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HoffenheimCounter-attacks & crosses

StuttgartLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Hoffenheim (40%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 29.00 (+36 %)

1 · Hoffenheim 40%X 25%36% Stuttgart · 2

40%

25%

36%

Analysis: Hoffenheim – Stuttgart

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Four recent clashes between Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart have ended without a victor, underscoring a tendency for stalemates. However, small sample sizes like this should be weighed cautiously against current form and expected goals. Hoffenheim, the hosts, are on a concerning run of three consecutive losses, while their visitors have found the net in eight straight league matches. This recent streak gives Stuttgart a psychological edge despite the lack of wins in face-to-face encounters.

The odds are finely balanced, with Hoffenheim slightly favored at 40% against Stuttgart's 36%. The numbers suggest a razor-thin margin, supported by expected goals of 1.58 for the hosts and 1.55 for the visitors. While the attacking philosophies differ, with Hoffenheim relying on counter-attacks and crosses and Stuttgart opting for a low defensive line and direct play, the clash promises a tactical battle. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, as shown by Stuttgart's higher xGA per match of 2.9 compared to Hoffenheim's 1.5.

The model predicts a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% probability for both teams to score. The most likely scorelines of 1-1, 2-1, or 1-2 reflect the close match anticipated, with a notable inclination toward both teams finding the back of the net. Hoffenheim, despite their recent struggles, is expected to exploit Stuttgart's defensive frailties, but their own defensive lapses could easily be punished by Stuttgart's continued scoring form.

There is a significant value bet for the risk-takers: under 0.5 goals at 29.0 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model gives this scenario a 5% chance of occurring, offering a substantial edge of 36%. This bet is not for the faint-hearted but holds a tantalizing risk-reward ratio for those looking to exploit market inefficiencies.

Hoffenheim

Form DWLLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #7xP/match #13Points #16

Key players

Adam HložekFxG 0.32 · xT 0.05
Adam DaghimLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
Vladimír CoufalRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.27

Stuttgart

Form DWDLW

League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #10xP/match #17Points #7

Key players

Bilal El KhannoussFxG 0.28 · xT 0.48
Grischa PrömelFxG 0.27 · xT 0.04
Deniz UndavFxG 0.10 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Hoffenheim – Stuttgart

Predicted score matrix

Stuttgart →

Hoffenheim →

0–04.7%

0–16.5%

0–25.2%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.5%

1–06.6%

1–111.0%

1–28.3%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.3%

2–05.5%

2–18.5%

2–26.6%

2–33.4%

2–4+1.8%

3–02.9%

3–14.5%

3–23.5%

3–31.8%

3–4+1.0%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.5%

4+–21.9%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-18%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,58–1,55

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@3.26EV+29%

Over 2,561%

@1.35

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Hoffenheim or draw (1X)63%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Hoffenheim or draw (1X)63%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Muhammed Mehmet Damar to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Nikolas Terkelsen Nartey to score22%
Angelo Stiller to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.55% probability@29.00BetsafeEV+36%reference odds
Under 0.55% probability@29.00BetssonEV+36%reference odds
Under 0.55% probability@29.00NordicbetEV+36%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hoffenheim	X	2 · Stuttgart
Betsafe	2.30	3.80	2.68
Betsson	2.32	3.85	2.70
Nordicbet	2.30	3.80	2.68
Pinnacle	2.35	EV+ 1% 4.12	2.70

Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:39

Odds movement

1+1 %

43 %38 %

2.33 → 2.35

X+4 %

26 %21 %

3.96 → 4.12

2+1 %

38 %33 %

2.68 → 2.70

Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Hoffenheim 0Draw 4Stuttgart 0

Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

Key facts

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have lost 3 in a row.
VFB Stuttgart have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hoffenheim

Stuttgart

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hoffenheim (4–6)

Stuttgart (5–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hoffenheim

Stuttgart

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hoffenheim

Stuttgart

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hoffenheim	Stuttgart
Points	0	3
xPoints	2.3	1.4
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	1.5	2.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.4	0.35

Playing style	Hoffenheim	Stuttgart
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.72	0.54
xT per match	1.4	1.2
xTA per match	1.3	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	29	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.23
Entries into the box per match	21	16
Entries into the box against	12	15
Pass completion %	0.76	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.72
Passes per match	412	379
Passes against per match	267	387
Switches of play per match	26.1	23.8
Long balls per match	33	28

Set pieces	Hoffenheim	Stuttgart
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.02
Corners per match	8.4	6.6
Corners against per match	4.4	8.6
xG per corner	0.01	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.71

Other	Hoffenheim	Stuttgart
Throw-in control	0.71	0.77

The goalkeepers	Oliver Baumann (Hoffenheim)	Fabian Bredlow (Stuttgart)
Saves	5	8
Save %	50%	62%
xG prevented	53%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hoffenheim

Fixtures, form & tips

Stuttgart

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart according to our model?

The model gives Hoffenheim a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hoffenheim 40%, draw 25%, Stuttgart 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.