BundesligaSignal Iduna Park, Dortmund18°0,1 mm12 km/h

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    Borussia DortmundBorussia DortmundPossession & high press
    vs
    PaderbornPaderbornCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Borussia Dortmund (65%)Best value by the model: 2 · Paderborn @ 11.50 (+88 %)

    Borussia Dortmund – Paderborn · Bundesliga

    1 · Borussia Dortmund 65%X 18%16% Paderborn · 2

    Analysis: Borussia Dortmund – Paderborn

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Borussia Dortmund's 4-game winning streak provides a solid foundation for their clash against Paderborn, underscoring the hosts' dominance. With a 65% chance of victory according to the model, Dortmund's recent form and historical 71% home win rate make them clear favorites. Paderborn's counter-attacking style may face challenges against Dortmund's possession and high press, limiting their effectiveness.

    This match's expected goals further highlight the disparity: Dortmund is projected for 2.28 xG while Paderborn manages just 0.91, and their season averages of 1.9 and 0.87 xG per match respectively point the same way. This aligns with the most likely scorelines, favoring a 2-0 or 2-1 result for the hosts. The 62% probability for over 2.5 goals suggests a reasonable expectation for a few goals, but the model's numbers are a steady reminder to prioritize defensive control over high-scoring gambles.

    For those drawn to value bets, Paderborn's win at odds of 12.5 with Betsson presents a 104% edge, given the model's 16% chance for an upset. This is echoed at odds of 12.0 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet, offering a 96% edge. While these are tempting from a value perspective, the data leans heavily towards a disciplined, straightforward play on Dortmund.

    Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
    Form LWWWW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #8xP/match #5Points #2
    Key players
    • Serhou GuirassyFxG 0.45 · xT 0.06
    • Maximilian BeierLWxG 0.60 · xT 0.22
    • Felix NmechaCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.00
    PaderbornPaderborn
    Form DL
    League ranking xG #15xGA #7xT #15xP/match #12Points #12
    Key players
    • Tjark SchellerCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
    • Laurin CurdaRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.20
    • Mattes HansenCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13

    Match prediction: Borussia Dortmund – Paderborn

    Predicted score matrix

    Paderborn →
    Borussia Dortmund →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.3%
    0–13.5%
    0–21.7%
    0–30.5%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–09.1%
    1–18.8%
    1–23.9%
    1–31.2%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–010.7%
    2–19.7%
    2–24.4%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–08.1%
    3–17.4%
    3–23.4%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–07.9%
    4+–17.2%
    4+–23.3%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-011%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-19%
    5. 5.3-08%
    Expected goals
    2,28–0,91
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,538%
    @3.20EV+22%
    Over 2,562%
    @1.36

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Borussia Dortmund to win65%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    59%

    Fair odds

    1.70

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Borussia Dortmund to win65%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Fábio Daniel Soares Silva to score39%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Fábio Daniel Soares Silva to score39%
    • Santiago Castañeda to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Paderborn16% probability@11.50BetsafeEV+88%reference odds
    • 2 · Paderborn16% probability@11.50BetssonEV+88%reference odds
    • 2 · Paderborn16% probability@11.50NordicbetEV+88%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Borussia DortmundX2 · Paderborn
    Betsafe1.24
    EV+ 4%
    5.65
    EV+ 88%
    11.50
    Betsson1.25
    EV+ 4%
    5.70
    EV+ 88%
    11.50
    Nordicbet1.24
    EV+ 4%
    5.65
    EV+ 88%
    11.50
    Pinnacle1.23
    EV+ 32%
    7.22
    EV+ 77%
    10.86

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 13:38

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    80 %75 %

    1.24 → 1.23

    X+7 %
    16 %11 %

    6.77 → 7.22

    2+18 %
    12 %7 %

    9.18 → 10.86

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Borussia Dortmund come into this round on 4 straight wins.
    • Borussia Dortmund win 71% of their home matches all-time (35 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Borussia Dortmund
    Paderborn
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Borussia Dortmund (5–2)
    Paderborn (0–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Borussia Dortmund
    Waldemar Anton: 118 passningar, xT 0.13AntonJoane Kouakou Gadou: 99 passningar, xT 0.2GadouDaniel Svensson: 95 passningar, xT 0.15SvenssonJobe Bellingham: 69 passningar, xT 0.07BellinghamJulian Ryerson: 57 passningar, xT 1.09RyersonFelix Nmecha: 50 passningar, xT 0NmechaKonstantinos Karetsas: 48 passningar, xT 0.04KaretsasGregor Kobel: 44 passningar, xT 0.06KobelMaximilian Beier: 38 passningar, xT 0.01BeierSerhou Guirassy: 31 passningar, xT 0.1GuirassyFilippo Calixte Mané: 27 passningar, xT 0.04Mané
    Paderborn
    Tjark Scheller: 123 passningar, xT 0.11SchellerMattes Hansen: 119 passningar, xT 0.23HansenNahuel Nicolas Noll: 93 passningar, xT 0.1NollJano ter Horst: 90 passningar, xT 0.23HorstSantiago Castañeda: 85 passningar, xT -0.03CastañedaGabriel Vidović: 77 passningar, xT -0.04VidovićRaphael Obermair: 56 passningar, xT 0.51ObermairLaurin Curda: 47 passningar, xT 0.39CurdaLaurin Ulrich: 41 passningar, xT -0.03UlrichMarvin Pieringer: 32 passningar, xT 0.09PieringerStefano Marino: 16 passningar, xT 0.05Marino
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Borussia Dortmund
    Waldemar Anton: 118 passningar, xT 0.13AntonJoane Kouakou Gadou: 99 passningar, xT 0.2GadouDaniel Svensson: 95 passningar, xT 0.15SvenssonJobe Bellingham: 69 passningar, xT 0.07BellinghamJulian Ryerson: 57 passningar, xT 1.09RyersonFelix Nmecha: 50 passningar, xT 0NmechaKonstantinos Karetsas: 48 passningar, xT 0.04KaretsasGregor Kobel: 44 passningar, xT 0.06KobelMaximilian Beier: 38 passningar, xT 0.01BeierSerhou Guirassy: 31 passningar, xT 0.1GuirassyFilippo Calixte Mané: 27 passningar, xT 0.04Mané
    Paderborn
    Tjark Scheller: 123 passningar, xT 0.11SchellerMattes Hansen: 119 passningar, xT 0.23HansenNahuel Nicolas Noll: 93 passningar, xT 0.1NollJano ter Horst: 90 passningar, xT 0.23HorstSantiago Castañeda: 85 passningar, xT -0.03CastañedaGabriel Vidović: 77 passningar, xT -0.04VidovićRaphael Obermair: 56 passningar, xT 0.51ObermairLaurin Curda: 47 passningar, xT 0.39CurdaLaurin Ulrich: 41 passningar, xT -0.03UlrichMarvin Pieringer: 32 passningar, xT 0.09PieringerStefano Marino: 16 passningar, xT 0.05Marino

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBorussia DortmundPaderborn
    Points61
    xPoints3.72.3
    xG per match1.90.87
    xGA per match11.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball10.25
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.30.25
    Playing styleBorussia DortmundPaderborn
    Build-up efficiency0.310.32
    Field tilt0.440.39
    xT per match1.40.92
    xTA per match0.951.5
    Won balls, offensive half2729
    Pressing intensity0.260.28
    Pressing efficiency0.310.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.25
    Entries into the box per match1410
    Entries into the box against1522
    Pass completion %0.770.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.750.7
    Passes per match366411
    Passes against per match377339
    Switches of play per match17.324.1
    Long balls per match2630
    Set piecesBorussia DortmundPaderborn
    xG from free kicks0.050.04
    Corners per match33.5
    Corners against per match5.47.5
    xG per corner0.020
    xGA per corner against0.010
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330
    First touch, defensive corners %0.730.6
    OtherBorussia DortmundPaderborn
    Throw-in control0.640.83
    The goalkeepersGregor Kobel (Borussia Dortmund)Nahuel Nicolas Noll (Paderborn)
    Saves78
    Save %78%89%
    xG prevented75%85%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Borussia Dortmund
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Paderborn
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Borussia Dortmund vs Paderborn according to our model?

    The model gives Borussia Dortmund a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Borussia Dortmund 65%, draw 18%, Paderborn 16%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.