Aris vs Atromitos Prediction: Home win 61% (25 Oct 2026)

Greek Super League25 October 202617°9 km/h

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ArisPossession control

AtromitosLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Aris (61%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 8.00 (+27 %)

1 · Aris 61%X 23%16% Atromitos · 2

61%

23%

16%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Aris vs Atromitos (Greek Super League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Aris win 61%, draw 23%, Atromitos win 16%. Expected goals (xG): Aris 1.83, Atromitos 1.01. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Aris or draw 84%, Atromitos or draw 39%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Aris – Atromitos

Sofia Andersson · 19 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Aris come into this clash with Atromitos boasting a strong historical edge, having never lost in their last six encounters. The model's probabilities give the hosts a commanding 61% chance to win, signaling a clear lean towards Aris. Expected goals reinforce this picture: Aris average 1.83 xG per match compared to the visitors' 1.01, while also translating their possession-based style into tangible scoring opportunities. Yet, their defensive frailties, reflected in an xGA of 1.5, might offer Atromitos a glimmer of hope.

Despite Atromitos' defensive posture and direct approach, their struggles are evident with only two points and a mere 0.79 xG per match. The visitors remain winless, underscoring the uphill task they face against a dominant home side. Still, Aris' vulnerability at the back means Atromitos could exploit any lapses, making the 1-1 scoreline (11% probability) a tempting consideration alongside Aris' 1-0 and 2-1 win probabilities.

The match projects a total exceeding 2.5 goals at 54%, aligning with both sides' defensive records. This offers a betting angle, particularly since Betsafe and Nordicbet present odds of 1.9 for the over, creating a positive expected value of 3%, while LeoVegas offers 1.88 for a 2% edge. The numbers suggest Aris have the offensive firepower to break through, but their defense might still concede, keeping the goal count ticking upwards.

In numerical terms, Aris should edge Atromitos, likely with a 2-1 outcome. The home side's xPoints lead of 11.2 to 6.7 over Atromitos' further solidifies this expectation. However, caution is advised given the small head-to-head sample size. The real allure lies in the over 2.5 goals market, where the odds present a calculated opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on the data-driven insights.

Aris

Form LLDWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #9xT #5xP/match #5Points #5

Key players

FabianoCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.17
Uroš RačićCAMxG 0.37 · xT 0.13
Benjamín Antonio GarréRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.21

Atromitos

Form LDDLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #6xT #7xP/match #10Points #13

Key players

Samuel Alain MoutoussamyCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.16
Hordur MagnussonCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
Athanasios KaramanisRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Aris – Atromitos

Predicted score matrix

Atromitos →

Aris →

0–06.2%

0–15.6%

0–23.0%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.4%

1–111.1%

1–25.4%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.8%

2–19.9%

2–25.0%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.5%

3–06.0%

3–16.0%

3–23.0%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–04.2%

4+–14.2%

4+–22.1%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-010%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,83–1,01

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@1.83

Over 2,554%

@2.10EV+13%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Aris to win61%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Aris to win61%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Manuel García Alonso to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Manuel García Alonso to score25%
Samuel Alain Moutoussamy to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.516% probability@8.00Bet365EV+27%reference odds
Over 3.532% probability@3.75Bet365EV+19%reference odds
Over 2.554% probability@2.10Bet365EV+13%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Aris	X	2 · Atromitos
Bet365	EV+ 7% 1.76	3.30	4.33
Betsafe	1.62	3.70	4.95
LeoVegas	1.61	3.75	4.80
Nordicbet	1.62	3.70	4.95

Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Aris win since 16 October — the odds have shortened from 1.77 to 1.61 (−9%).

1-9 %

59 %49 %

1.77 → 1.61

X+14 %

31 %21 %

3.30 → 3.75

2+12 %

25 %15 %

4.30 → 4.80

Over 2,5-6 %

53 %43 %

2.00 → 1.88

LeoVegas · 20 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Aris 3Draw 3Atromitos 0

Goals: 7–4 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Aris Thessaloniki dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Aris

Atromitos

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Aris (10–13)

Atromitos (5–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Aris

Atromitos

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Aris

Atromitos

The teams in numbers

Performance	Aris	Atromitos
Points	13	2
xPoints	11.2	6.7
xG per match	1.8	0.79
xGA per match	1.5	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.19

Playing style	Aris	Atromitos
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.55	0.51
xT per match	1.1	1.1
xTA per match	1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	28	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.19
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	9	14
Pass completion %	0.75	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.7
Passes per match	314	316
Passes against per match	302	330
Switches of play per match	29.2	21.7
Long balls per match	36	26

Set pieces	Aris	Atromitos
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.06
Corners per match	5.2	3.8
Corners against per match	2.9	4.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.26
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.62

Other	Aris	Atromitos
Throw-in control	0.73	0.67

The goalkeepers	Mário Ricardo da Silva Velho (Aris)	Lefteris Choutesiotis (Atromitos)
Saves	17	24
Save %	57%	75%
xG prevented	26%	62%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Aris

Fixtures, form & tips

Atromitos

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Aris vs Atromitos according to our model?

The model gives Aris a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Aris 61%, draw 23%, Atromitos 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Aris vs Atromitos?

The model expects 1.83 goals (xG) for Aris and 1.01 for Atromitos, 2.84 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Aris or draw (1X) 84%, Atromitos or draw (X2) 39% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.