01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Olympiacos to win82%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Greek Super League17°6 km/h
Läs på svenska
OlympiacosPossession & high pressvs
KalamataCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Olympiacos (82%)Best value by the model: 2 · Kalamata @ 19.71 (+20 %)
Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.
Olympiacos vs Kalamata · Greek Super League
1 · Olympiacos 82%X 12%6% Kalamata · 2
82%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Olympiacos vs Kalamata (Greek Super League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Olympiacos win 82%, draw 12%, Kalamata win 6%. Expected goals (xG): Olympiacos 2.37, Kalamata 0.59. Most likely score: 2-0 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 41%. Double chance: Olympiacos or draw 94%, Kalamata or draw 18%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Olympiacos – Kalamata
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Olympiacos holds a commanding position in the upcoming clash against Kalamata, with model probabilities giving them a hefty 82% chance of victory. Such a dominant figure is supported by the hosts' impressive form, coming off the back of three consecutive wins. The recent form and expected goals data paint a clear picture favoring the home side.
The most likely scorelines point towards a convincing win for Olympiacos, with a 2-0 scoreline predicted at 14% and a 1-0 win at 12%. The model suggests Olympiacos will generate significantly more chances, with an expected goals tally of 2.37 compared to Kalamata’s meager 0.59. This disparity is further highlighted by the playing styles: Olympiacos' possession and high press system is likely to dominate Kalamata's counter-attack strategy.
With Olympiacos winning 69% of their home matches historically and their expected goals and expected goals against numbers both strongly in their favor, their superiority is clear. They average 1.7 xG per match while only allowing 0.65 xGA, compared to Kalamata's 1.2 xG and a porous 1.6 xGA. These numbers suggest that Kalamata will struggle to find the back of the net, especially against a side in such strong defensive form.
For bettors, the sharpest angle lies with the over/under market. With the odds of over 2.5 goals sitting at 57%, the data actually leans toward a higher-scoring game despite the likelihood of an Olympiacos win. Given the most likely scorelines, a 2-0 or 1-0 result appears probable, but bettors should note that the model favors the over 2.5 market slightly over the under, reflecting Olympiacos's strong attacking output even in matches they control.
OlympiacosForm DLWWW
League ranking xG #5xGA #2xT #4xP/match #2Points #2
Key players
- Nayair TiknizyanLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.17
- Marcus Holmgren PedersenRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.28
- Lorenzo PirolaCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.03
KalamataForm DWLWW
League ranking xG #7xGA #12xT #8xP/match #7Points #6
Key players
- Erik HamzaFxG 0.11 · xT 0.06
- Jovanny David Bolívar AlvaradoFxG 0.30 · xT 0.02
- Dawid KurminowskiFxG 0.62 · xT -0.05
Match prediction: Olympiacos – Kalamata
Predicted score matrix
Kalamata →
Olympiacos →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–12.9%
0–20.9%
0–30.2%
0–4+0.0%
1
1–012.0%
1–17.5%
1–22.2%
1–30.4%
1–4+0.1%
2
2–014.5%
2–18.6%
2–22.6%
2–30.5%
2–4+0.1%
3
3–011.4%
3–16.8%
3–22.0%
3–30.4%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–011.8%
4+–17.0%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-014%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.3-011%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.1-18%
Expected goals
2,37–0,59
Both teams to score
41%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.40EV+4%
Over 2,557%
@1.53
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Olympiacos to win82%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- João Pedro Ferreira Silva to score45%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score41%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- João Pedro Ferreira Silva to score45%
- Gonzalo Agustín Piñeiro to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Kalamata6% probability@19.71PinnacleEV+20%reference odds
- 2 · Kalamata6% probability@19.00Bet365EV+15%reference odds
- X · Draw12% probability@9.17PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Olympiacos | X | 2 · Kalamata |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.10 | 8.00 | EV+ 15% 19.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.11 | EV+ 10% 9.17 | EV+ 20% 19.71 |
Odds updated 22 Oct, 06:54
Odds movement
1-2 %
87 %82 %
1.12 → 1.11
X+14 %
13 %8 %
8.05 → 9.17
2+24 %
8 %3 %
15.86 → 19.71
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Olympiacos Piraeus come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Olympiacos Piraeus win 69% of their home matches all-time (35 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Olympiacos
Kalamata
Olympiacos (7–2)
Kalamata (13–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Olympiacos
Kalamata
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Olympiacos
Kalamata
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Olympiacos | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 10 |
| xPoints | 12.6 | 10.1 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 0.65 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.39 |
| Playing style | Olympiacos | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| Field tilt | 0.68 | 0.33 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.95 |
| xTA per match | 0.62 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 36 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.2 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 18 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 7 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 402 | 251 |
| Passes against per match | 262 | 358 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.8 | 21.1 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Olympiacos | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 7.3 | 2.5 |
| Corners against per match | 3.6 | 6.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.76 | 0.64 |
| Other | Olympiacos | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Stefan Ortega Moreno (Olympiacos) | Ioannis Gelios (Kalamata) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 10 |
| Save % | 89% | 59% |
| xG prevented | 78% | 37% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Olympiacos vs Kalamata according to our model?
The model gives Olympiacos a 82% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Olympiacos 82%, draw 12%, Kalamata 6%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 41% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Olympiacos vs Kalamata?
The model expects 2.37 goals (xG) for Olympiacos and 0.59 for Kalamata, 2.96 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Olympiacos or draw (1X) 94%, Kalamata or draw (X2) 18% and no draw (12) 88%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.