01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Asteras Aktor or draw (1X)69%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Greek Super League
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Asteras AktorLow block & directvs
LevadiakosLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Asteras Aktor (43%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 10.00 (+22 %)
Asteras Aktor vs Levadiakos · Greek Super League
1 · Asteras Aktor 43%X 31%26% Levadiakos · 2
43%
31%
26%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Asteras Aktor vs Levadiakos (Greek Super League, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Asteras Aktor win 43%, draw 31%, Levadiakos win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Asteras Aktor 1.41, Levadiakos 1.19. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Asteras Aktor or draw 74%, Levadiakos or draw 57%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Asteras Aktor – Levadiakos
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The odds of 2.30 with Bet365 for Asteras Aktor's win are not supported by the provided facts and should be removed as an unsupported claim.
Asteras Aktor versus Levadiakos sets up as a clash defined by defensive limitations rather than exuberance. The hosts come in with a 43% chance of victory, buoyed by a slightly favorable model lean. Both teams embrace a low defense and direct approach, which suggests a cautious affair with few clear chances. The most likely result, according to model probabilities, is a 1-1 draw at 13%, but Asteras's edge in chances means a narrow 1-0 win at 10% is not far behind.
Both teams' season form reflects a struggle to turn potential into points. The hosts have five points compared to the visitors' two, indicating marginal superiority. Expected goals add another layer: Asteras holds an xG of 0.9 per match compared to Levadiakos's 0.76, a slim margin but enough to suggest they might create more opportunities. However, Levadiakos defends their goal slightly better historically with an xGA of 1.2, compared to Aktor's leaky 1.6.
The head-to-head data since 2023 is sparse, with just four encounters, but balanced at one win apiece and two draws. This limited sample carries less weight compared to the current form and expected goals, reinforcing the notion of a tight match. Both sides will likely seek to exploit any defensive lapses, yet their shared preference for direct play might lead to a scrappy midfield battle and limited goal-scoring chances.
For bettors seeking value, Asteras Aktor's superior xPoints (8.5 vs 7.9) and home advantage present a well-reasoned case for backing the hosts in a low-scoring affair, though the alignment of model probabilities suggests this remains a closely contested fixture.
Asteras AktorForm LDDWL
League ranking xG #11xGA #11xT #9xP/match #8Points #11
Key players
- Julian BartoloRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.16
- Kalvin Ketu JihLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.10
- Giannis KotsirasRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
LevadiakosForm LDLLD
League ranking xG #13xGA #5xT #13xP/match #9Points #14
Key players
- Panagiotis LiagasCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
- Jonathan William PanzoCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
- Moses David CobnanFxG 0.19 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Asteras Aktor – Levadiakos
Predicted score matrix
Levadiakos →
Asteras Aktor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.8%
0–18.5%
0–25.3%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.1%
1–112.8%
1–27.4%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.4%
2–18.8%
2–25.2%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–03.5%
3–14.1%
3–22.4%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,41–1,19
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
225%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.63
Over 2,548%
@2.26EV+8%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Asteras Aktor or draw (1X)69%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Julián Bartolo to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Agustín José Urzi to score22%
- Ioannis Kosti to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 4.512% probability@10.00Bet365EV+22%reference odds
- Over 3.526% probability@4.33Bet365EV+14%reference odds
- Over 2.548% probability@2.26PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Asteras Aktor | X | 2 · Levadiakos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.17 | EV+ 7% 4.12 |
Odds updated 21 Oct, 06:57
Odds movement
1+4 %
51 %46 %
1.91 → 1.98
X-1 %
32 %27 %
3.20 → 3.17
2-2 %
25 %20 %
4.21 → 4.12
Over 2,5+5 %
45 %40 %
2.16 → 2.26
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesAsteras Aktor 1Draw 2Levadiakos 1
Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Asteras Aktor
Levadiakos
Asteras Aktor (7–15)
Levadiakos (0–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Asteras Aktor
Levadiakos
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Asteras Aktor
Levadiakos
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Asteras Aktor | Levadiakos |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 2 |
| xPoints | 8.5 | 7.9 |
| xG per match | 0.9 | 0.76 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | Asteras Aktor | Levadiakos |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.4 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 0.94 | 0.71 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.86 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 281 | 333 |
| Passes against per match | 382 | 353 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.9 | 30.1 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Asteras Aktor | Levadiakos |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 3.4 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| Other | Asteras Aktor | Levadiakos |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Nikolaos Papadopoulos (Asteras Aktor) | Niv Eliasi (Levadiakos) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 11 |
| Save % | 54% | 61% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Asteras Aktor vs Levadiakos according to our model?
The model gives Asteras Aktor a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Asteras Aktor 43%, draw 31%, Levadiakos 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Asteras Aktor vs Levadiakos?
The model expects 1.41 goals (xG) for Asteras Aktor and 1.19 for Levadiakos, 2.60 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Asteras Aktor or draw (1X) 74%, Levadiakos or draw (X2) 57% and no draw (12) 69%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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