Levadiakos vs Olympiacos: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Greek Super League20 September 2026

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LevadiakosLow block & direct

OlympiacosPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Olympiacos (62%)Best value by the model: 1 · Levadiakos @ 10.76 (+79 %)

1 · Levadiakos 17%X 21%62% Olympiacos · 2

17%

21%

62%

Analysis: Levadiakos – Olympiacos

Marcus Johansson · 18 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Levadiakos' struggle against Olympiacos is stark, with four matches since 2023 yielding two draws and two losses for the hosts. The visiting side is heavily favored with a model probability of 62%, suggesting a dominant performance is on the cards. Despite Levadiakos' tendency to employ a low defensive block and direct play, their chances of breaking down Olympiacos' high press and possession game appear slim.

The expected goals tell a story of their own: Levadiakos are projected at just 0.94, while Olympiacos are at 1.94. This disparity underlines the visitors' superiority, particularly when considering their ability to maintain a high press and control possession. Olympiacos' xGA of 0.59 per match further suggests a resilient defense that Levadiakos will find difficult to breach, even with their direct approach.

While the most likely scorelines—0-1, 0-2, and 1-1—all hover around 11%, the edge leans toward Olympiacos securing a clean sheet victory. The 55% probability for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score add a layer of complexity, but given the style clash and historical trends, a narrow win for the visitors seems most plausible.

Levadiakos' points and xPoints paint a similar picture of a team outmatched, with only 1 point and 3.6 xPoints compared to Olympiacos' 7 points and 7.4 xPoints. This further supports the model's lean towards an Olympiacos victory, likely underlining a 0-1 or 0-2 scoreline.

While surprises can happen, the data firmly supports a disciplined but ultimately comfortable win for the visitors.

Levadiakos

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #13xGA #10xT #13xP/match #14Points #14

Key players

Moses David CobnanLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.07
Giannis TsivelekidisCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Agustín José UrziFxG 0.09 · xT -0.01

Olympiacos

Form DWWDL

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #5xP/match #2Points #6

Key players

Ayoub El KaabiFxG 0.79 · xT 0.01
Panagiotis RetsosCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
Konstantinos FortounisFxG 0.15 · xT 0.58

Match prediction: Levadiakos – Olympiacos

Predicted score matrix

Olympiacos →

Levadiakos →

0–05.9%

0–110.6%

0–210.6%

0–36.8%

0–4+5.2%

1–05.0%

1–110.5%

1–29.9%

1–36.4%

1–4+4.8%

2–02.5%

2–14.8%

2–24.7%

2–33.0%

2–4+2.3%

3–00.8%

3–11.5%

3–21.5%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-111%
2.0-211%
3.1-111%
4.1-210%
5.0-37%

Expected goals

0,94–1,94

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@2.00

Over 2,555%

@1.92EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Olympiacos to win62%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Olympiacos to win62%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Ayoub El Kaabi to score41%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Ayoub El Kaabi to score41%
Enis Çokaj to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Levadiakos17% probability@10.76PinnacleEV+79%reference odds
1 · Levadiakos17% probability@8.50Bet365EV+41%reference odds
Both teams to score: Yes52% probability@2.20Bet365EV+15%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Levadiakos	X	2 · Olympiacos
Bet365	EV+ 41% 8.50	4.50	1.33
Pinnacle	EV+ 79% 10.76	EV+ 9% 5.20	1.30

Odds updated 20 Sept, 02:17

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Olympiacos win since 14 September — the odds have shortened from 1.40 to 1.30 (−7%).

1+43 %

16 %6 %

7.54 → 10.76

X+14 %

24 %14 %

4.58 → 5.20

2-7 %

75 %65 %

1.40 → 1.30

Over 2,5+4 %

55 %45 %

1.84 → 1.92

Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Levadiakos 0Draw 2Olympiacos 2

Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Levadiakos

Olympiacos

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Levadiakos (0–8)

Olympiacos (3–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Levadiakos

Olympiacos

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Levadiakos

Olympiacos

The teams in numbers

Performance	Levadiakos	Olympiacos
Points	1	7
xPoints	3.6	7.4
xG per match	0.73	1.8
xGA per match	1.6	0.59
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.11	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.1	0.15

Playing style	Levadiakos	Olympiacos
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.34
Field tilt	0.46	0.72
xT per match	0.67	1.1
xTA per match	0.88	0.55
Won balls, offensive half	30	33
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.27
Entries into the box per match	9	17
Entries into the box against	11	7
Pass completion %	0.75	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.72
Passes per match	333	425
Passes against per match	370	246
Switches of play per match	33.4	33.6
Long balls per match	38	42

Set pieces	Levadiakos	Olympiacos
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.04
Corners per match	4.6	9.1
Corners against per match	4.9	2.2
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.67

Other	Levadiakos	Olympiacos
Throw-in control	0.69	0.75

The goalkeepers	Giannis Tsivelekidis (Levadiakos)	Stefan Ortega Moreno (Olympiacos)
Saves	6	8
Save %	100%	80%
xG prevented	100%	48%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Levadiakos

Fixtures, form & tips

Olympiacos

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Levadiakos vs Olympiacos according to our model?

The model gives Olympiacos a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Levadiakos 17%, draw 21%, Olympiacos 62%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.