Greek Super League25°9 km/h

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    PanetolikosPanetolikosLow block & direct
    vs
    PAOKPAOKBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 2 · PAOK (55%)Best value by the model: 1 · Panetolikos @ 5.86 (+32 %)

    Panetolikos vs PAOK · Greek Super League

    1 · Panetolikos 22%X 23%55% PAOK · 2

    Analysis: Panetolikos – PAOK

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Panetolikos have found themselves consistently on the backfoot in their recent encounters with PAOK, managing just a single draw and suffering three losses since 2023. Although this head-to-head record is based on a small sample size of just four matches, it still tilts the narrative in favor of the visitors. PAOK's ability to find the back of the net in eight successive league games further strengthens their position as the frontrunners in this clash.

    Looking at the season's data, PAOK hold a slight edge in expected metrics. Their xG per match stands at 1.7 compared to Panetolikos's 1.1, indicating a more potent attack. Defensively, the hosts have a marginal advantage with an xGA of 1.6 against PAOK's 1.7. This suggests that while Panetolikos may be vulnerable at the back, they're not entirely outclassed in that department. Nevertheless, the model favors PAOK with a 55% probability of winning, highlighting their overall superiority.

    The numbers suggest a tightly contested affair with expected goals of 0.98 for the hosts and 1.49 for the visitors. The most likely scorelines echo this: 1-1 at 13% and a 0-1 victory for PAOK at 12%. The under 2.5 goals market is slightly favored at 55%, aligning with the anticipated low-scoring nature of the game. Both teams to score is priced at 49%, almost a coin flip, but it edges towards a cautious no.

    Despite PAOK's favorable odds, the real intrigue lies in the value bet identified. At odds of 5.1 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, backing the home side carries a 14% edge. While Panetolikos may be underdogs, this price reflects a potential opportunity for those willing to gamble on an upset.

    PanetolikosPanetolikos
    Form LWWWL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #11xT #10xP/match #6Points #4
    Key players
    • Youssouph Mamadou BadjiFxG 0.11 · xT 0.22
    • Charalampos MavriasRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.10
    • Diego Esteban PerezRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
    PAOKPAOK
    Form DWWLW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #13xT #8xP/match #4Points #2
    Key players
    • Andrija ZivkovicRWxG 0.52 · xT 0.34
    • Dimitris PelkasCAMxG 0.56 · xT 0.17
    • Abdul Rahman BabaLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10

    Match prediction: Panetolikos – PAOK

    Predicted score matrix

    PAOK →
    Panetolikos →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.8%
    0–112.3%
    0–29.4%
    0–34.7%
    0–4+2.4%
    1
    1–07.9%
    1–112.7%
    1–29.2%
    1–34.6%
    1–4+2.4%
    2
    2–04.0%
    2–16.0%
    2–24.5%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–01.3%
    3–12.0%
    3–21.5%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.6%
    4+–20.4%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-112%
    3. 3.0-29%
    4. 4.1-29%
    5. 5.0-09%
    Expected goals
    0,98–1,49
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,555%
    @1.99EV+2%
    Over 2,545%
    @1.95

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • PAOK to win55%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.81

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • PAOK to win55%
    • Under 2.5 goals55%
    • Magomed Ozdoev to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals45%
    • Magomed Ozdoev to score27%
    • Andreas Bouchalakis to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Panetolikos22% probability@5.86PinnacleEV+32%reference odds
    • 1 · Panetolikos22% probability@5.75Bet365EV+29%reference odds
    • 1 · Panetolikos22% probability@5.30BetssonEV+19%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · PanetolikosX2 · PAOK
    Bet365
    EV+ 29%
    5.75    		3.801.53
    Betsafe
    EV+ 18%
    5.25    		3.801.58
    Betsson
    EV+ 19%
    5.30    		3.801.60
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 18%
    5.25    		3.801.58
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 32%
    5.86    		3.951.59

    Odds updated 19 Sept, 20:23

    Odds movement

    1+4 %
    19 %14 %

    5.66 → 5.86

    X+2 %
    27 %22 %

    3.86 → 3.95

    20 %
    62 %57 %

    1.58 → 1.59

    Over 2,50 %
    54 %49 %

    1.84 → 1.85

    Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Panetolikos 0Draw 1PAOK 3
    Goals: 0–6 (⌀ 1,5)

    Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • PAOK Thessaloniki have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Panetolikos
    PAOK
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Panetolikos (7–4)
    PAOK (9–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Panetolikos
    Charalampos Mavrias: 111 passningar, xT 0.24MavriasAmine Bassi: 107 passningar, xT 0.17BassiGustav Frans Vallentin Granath: 97 passningar, xT 0.39GranathNikola Stajic: 90 passningar, xT 0.11StajicYevhen Kucherenko: 87 passningar, xT 0.16KucherenkoDiego Esteban Perez: 73 passningar, xT 0.28PerezGiannis Satsias: 66 passningar, xT -0.05SatsiasLazar Kojić: 53 passningar, xT 0.21KojićNovica Eraković: 50 passningar, xT 0.04ErakovićMoussa Djenepo: 43 passningar, xT 0.01DjenepoApostolos Apostolopoulos: 42 passningar, xT 0.22Apostolopoulos
    PAOK
    Jonjoe Kenny: 131 passningar, xT 0.4KennyGiannis Michailidis: 112 passningar, xT 0.23MichailidisAbdul Rahman Baba: 107 passningar, xT 0.19BabaAritz Elustondo: 104 passningar, xT 0.16ElustondoAndrija Zivkovic: 87 passningar, xT 1.04ZivkovicDimitris Pelkas: 64 passningar, xT 0.21PelkasChristos Zafeiris: 61 passningar, xT -0.05ZafeirisJiri Pavlenka: 60 passningar, xT 0.01PavlenkaGreg John Taylor: 58 passningar, xT 0.13TaylorTaison Barcellos Freda: 51 passningar, xT 0.16FredaDiego Henrique Costa Barbosa: 39 passningar, xT 0.04Barbosa
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Panetolikos
    Charalampos Mavrias: 111 passningar, xT 0.24MavriasAmine Bassi: 107 passningar, xT 0.17BassiGustav Frans Vallentin Granath: 97 passningar, xT 0.39GranathNikola Stajic: 90 passningar, xT 0.11StajicYevhen Kucherenko: 87 passningar, xT 0.16KucherenkoDiego Esteban Perez: 73 passningar, xT 0.28PerezGiannis Satsias: 66 passningar, xT -0.05SatsiasLazar Kojić: 53 passningar, xT 0.21KojićNovica Eraković: 50 passningar, xT 0.04ErakovićMoussa Djenepo: 43 passningar, xT 0.01DjenepoApostolos Apostolopoulos: 42 passningar, xT 0.22Apostolopoulos
    PAOK
    Jonjoe Kenny: 131 passningar, xT 0.4KennyGiannis Michailidis: 112 passningar, xT 0.23MichailidisAbdul Rahman Baba: 107 passningar, xT 0.19BabaAritz Elustondo: 104 passningar, xT 0.16ElustondoAndrija Zivkovic: 87 passningar, xT 1.04ZivkovicDimitris Pelkas: 64 passningar, xT 0.21PelkasChristos Zafeiris: 61 passningar, xT -0.05ZafeirisJiri Pavlenka: 60 passningar, xT 0.01PavlenkaGreg John Taylor: 58 passningar, xT 0.13TaylorTaison Barcellos Freda: 51 passningar, xT 0.16FredaDiego Henrique Costa Barbosa: 39 passningar, xT 0.04Barbosa

    The teams in numbers

    PerformancePanetolikosPAOK
    Points99
    xPoints5.66.3
    xG per match1.11.7
    xGA per match1.61.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.230.27
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.270.18
    Playing stylePanetolikosPAOK
    Build-up efficiency0.330.32
    Field tilt0.340.43
    xT per match0.730.94
    xTA per match1.21.4
    Won balls, offensive half2524
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.290.23
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.23
    Entries into the box per match912
    Entries into the box against1613
    Pass completion %0.70.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.67
    Passes per match242301
    Passes against per match415385
    Switches of play per match25.416.2
    Long balls per match3626
    Set piecesPanetolikosPAOK
    xG from free kicks0.050.04
    Corners per match2.33.5
    Corners against per match5.63.8
    xG per corner0.070.01
    xGA per corner against0.010.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.670.36
    First touch, defensive corners %0.730.6
    OtherPanetolikosPAOK
    Throw-in control0.560.65
    The goalkeepersYevhen Kucherenko (Panetolikos)Jiri Pavlenka (PAOK)
    Saves1614
    Save %80%78%
    xG prevented57%73%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Panetolikos
    Fixtures, form & tips
    PAOK
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Panetolikos vs PAOK according to our model?

    The model gives PAOK a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Panetolikos 22%, draw 23%, PAOK 55%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.