Greek Super League16°17 km/h

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    OFI CreteOFI CretePossession control
    vs
    Asteras AktorAsteras AktorPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · OFI Crete (44%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.34 (+12 %)

    OFI Crete vs Asteras Aktor · Greek Super League

    1 · OFI Crete 44%X 27%29% Asteras Aktor · 2

    Analysis: OFI Crete – Asteras Aktor

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Nine points to one. That's the stark reality facing Asteras Aktor as they travel to Crete. Despite holding a historical upper hand in recent head-to-head clashes, having triumphed in four out of six meetings, the visitors' current form is less than inspiring. OFI Crete, in contrast, have accumulated nine points to Asteras's solitary point this season, indicating a significant swing in momentum.

    The model suggests a tight affair, with Crete favored by a 44% win probability. Expected goals further underscore this, forecasting 1.43 for Crete compared to 1.16 for Asteras. A high-scoring history might tempt over 2.5 backers, yet the forecast sits just shy at 48%, suggesting a cautious approach. Both sides embrace possession control, a tactical duel that could slow the pace despite their previous encounters averaging three goals.

    The strongest betting angle emerges with OFI Crete's win odds. Their superior form and home advantage make the hosts an enticing proposition, especially given Asteras's season-long struggles. Back OFI Crete to edge this one, likely by a narrow 1-0 margin. Monitoring bookmakers like Bet365, who offer favorable odds on a home victory, could yield value in this Greek Super League clash.

    OFI CreteOFI Crete
    Form WWLWW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #11xP/match #7Points #3
    Key players
    • Nikolaos AthanasiouLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
    • Kenan KodroFxG 0.19 · xT 0.07
    • Christos SielisCBxG 0.25 · xT 0.06
    Asteras AktorAsteras Aktor
    Form WLLLD
    League ranking xG #10xGA #6xT #3xP/match #12Points #13
    Key players
    • Julian BartoloFxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
    • Giannis KotsirasRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.27
    • Ricardo Viana FilhoLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.10

    Match prediction: OFI Crete – Asteras Aktor

    Predicted score matrix

    Asteras Aktor →
    OFI Crete →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.8%
    0–18.3%
    0–25.1%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–010.3%
    1–112.8%
    1–27.2%
    1–32.8%
    1–4+1.1%
    2
    2–07.6%
    2–18.9%
    2–25.2%
    2–32.0%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–03.6%
    3–14.2%
    3–22.5%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–01.8%
    4+–12.1%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,43–1,16
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @1.61
    Over 2,548%
    @2.34EV+8%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance OFI Crete or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.96

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance OFI Crete or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Thiago Thomas Nuss to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Thiago Thomas Nuss to score26%
    • Ilija Vukotić to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 2.548% probability@2.34PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
    • Over 4.512% probability@9.00Bet365EV+9%reference odds
    • Over 2.548% probability@2.25Bet365EV+8%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · OFI CreteX2 · Asteras Aktor
    Bet3652.103.20
    EV+ 2%
    3.50
    Pinnacle2.223.15
    EV+ 4%
    3.57

    Odds updated 19 Sept, 22:22

    Odds movement

    1+3 %
    45 %40 %

    2.16 → 2.22

    X-5 %
    32 %27 %

    3.33 → 3.15

    2+6 %
    31 %26 %

    3.37 → 3.57

    Over 2,5+4 %
    44 %39 %

    2.26 → 2.34

    Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    OFI Crete 2Draw 0Asteras Aktor 4
    Goals: 7–11 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Asteras Aktor dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 6 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    OFI Crete
    Asteras Aktor
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    OFI Crete (6–2)
    Asteras Aktor (2–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    OFI Crete
    Dimitrios Nikolaou: 210 passningar, xT 0.24NikolaouNikolaos Athanasiou: 163 passningar, xT 0.38AthanasiouAndreas Bouchalakis: 136 passningar, xT 0.08BouchalakisAchilleas Poungouras: 127 passningar, xT 0.14PoungourasNikolaos Christogeorgos: 124 passningar, xT 0.04ChristogeorgosKrešimir Krizmanić: 118 passningar, xT 0.1KrizmanićAthanasios Androutsos: 113 passningar, xT 0.34AndroutsosKonstantinos Kostoulas: 100 passningar, xT 0.22KostoulasLorenzo Maria Dickmann: 84 passningar, xT 0.28DickmannAitor Cantalapiedra Fernández: 71 passningar, xT 0.1FernándezTaxiarchis Fountas: 55 passningar, xT -0.1Fountas
    Asteras Aktor
    Giannis Kotsiras: 170 passningar, xT 1.01KotsirasDimitrios Kourbelis: 157 passningar, xT 0.4KourbelisAlejandro Méndez García: 143 passningar, xT 0.05GarcíaEder Gonzalez: 130 passningar, xT 0.37GonzalezJordan Silva: 122 passningar, xT 0.12SilvaFranz Brorsson: 104 passningar, xT 0.23BrorssonGiannis Bouzoukis: 60 passningar, xT 0.19BouzoukisJulian Bartolo: 57 passningar, xT 0.29BartoloKalvin Ketu Jih: 52 passningar, xT 0.52JihDimitris Laskaris: 52 passningar, xT 0.17LaskarisKonstantinos Chrysopoulos: 48 passningar, xT 0.03Chrysopoulos
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    OFI Crete
    Dimitrios Nikolaou: 210 passningar, xT 0.24NikolaouNikolaos Athanasiou: 163 passningar, xT 0.38AthanasiouAndreas Bouchalakis: 136 passningar, xT 0.08BouchalakisAchilleas Poungouras: 127 passningar, xT 0.14PoungourasNikolaos Christogeorgos: 124 passningar, xT 0.04ChristogeorgosKrešimir Krizmanić: 118 passningar, xT 0.1KrizmanićAthanasios Androutsos: 113 passningar, xT 0.34AndroutsosKonstantinos Kostoulas: 100 passningar, xT 0.22KostoulasLorenzo Maria Dickmann: 84 passningar, xT 0.28DickmannAitor Cantalapiedra Fernández: 71 passningar, xT 0.1FernándezTaxiarchis Fountas: 55 passningar, xT -0.1Fountas
    Asteras Aktor
    Giannis Kotsiras: 170 passningar, xT 1.01KotsirasDimitrios Kourbelis: 157 passningar, xT 0.4KourbelisAlejandro Méndez García: 143 passningar, xT 0.05GarcíaEder Gonzalez: 130 passningar, xT 0.37GonzalezJordan Silva: 122 passningar, xT 0.12SilvaFranz Brorsson: 104 passningar, xT 0.23BrorssonGiannis Bouzoukis: 60 passningar, xT 0.19BouzoukisJulian Bartolo: 57 passningar, xT 0.29BartoloKalvin Ketu Jih: 52 passningar, xT 0.52JihDimitris Laskaris: 52 passningar, xT 0.17LaskarisKonstantinos Chrysopoulos: 48 passningar, xT 0.03Chrysopoulos

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceOFI CreteAsteras Aktor
    Points91
    xPoints5.24.1
    xG per match10.95
    xGA per match1.41.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.390.14
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.260.12
    Playing styleOFI CreteAsteras Aktor
    Build-up efficiency0.280.31
    Field tilt0.360.57
    xT per match0.71.2
    xTA per match1.10.78
    Won balls, offensive half2130
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.250.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.24
    Entries into the box per match716
    Entries into the box against1413
    Pass completion %0.810.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.750.71
    Passes per match395332
    Passes against per match393285
    Switches of play per match31.232
    Long balls per match3845
    Set piecesOFI CreteAsteras Aktor
    xG from free kicks00.04
    Corners per match2.25
    Corners against per match5.54
    xG per corner0.040.04
    xGA per corner against0.010.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.560.3
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.56
    OtherOFI CreteAsteras Aktor
    Throw-in control0.780.68
    The goalkeepersNikolaos Christogeorgos (OFI Crete)Nikolaos Papadopoulos (Asteras Aktor)
    Saves167
    Save %89%64%
    xG prevented94%51%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    OFI Crete
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Asteras Aktor
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins OFI Crete vs Asteras Aktor according to our model?

    The model gives OFI Crete a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: OFI Crete 44%, draw 27%, Asteras Aktor 29%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.