Fiorentina vs Como Prediction: Away win 54% (18 Oct 2026)

Serie A18 October 2026Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze15°5 km/h

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FiorentinaBalanced & physical

ComoPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Como (54%)

1 · Fiorentina 23%X 23%54% Como · 2

23%

54%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Fiorentina vs Como (Serie A, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Fiorentina win 23%, draw 23%, Como win 54%. Expected goals (xG): Fiorentina 1.09, Como 1.90. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Fiorentina or draw 46%, Como or draw 77%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

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Analysis: Fiorentina – Como

Oscar Nilsson · 10 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Como's possession-control style comes into sharp focus against Fiorentina's physical approach. The visitors have been racking up points at an impressive rate this season, and their 10 points compared to the host's solitary point highlights a stark contrast in fortunes. Fiorentina may have split their four head-to-head encounters with Como evenly, but this small sample offers little comfort given the current trajectory and underlying numbers.

Expected goals suggest a clear tilt towards the visitors, with Como's 1.90 xG per match dwarfing Fiorentina's 1.09. Add to that the expected goals against, and it's evident why many see Como as the likely winners. While a 1-1 draw remains the most probable single scoreline, with a 11% chance, Como's 1-2 and 0-1 wins aren't far behind, making a solid case for their ascendancy in this fixture.

The over/under 2.5 goals market leans towards the over at 57%, a reflection of both sides' vulnerabilities at the back and Como's attacking prowess. Although Fiorentina's balanced and physical game might try to disrupt Como's rhythm, the visitors' control should eventually shine through. Both teams are likely to find the net, but Como's efficiency in front of goal could see them edge the contest.

The sharpest angle here lies in the betting market. With Como's win priced at 2.12 by LeoVegas and the model rating it a 54% probability, there's a notable 13% value edge. A bet on Como to continue their fine form at these odds presents a rare opportunity for those seeking a calculated play.

Fiorentina

Form DLLLD

League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #10xP/match #15Points #19

Key players

Franco MastantuonoRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.11
Mateo PellegrinoFxG 0.09 · xT 0.03
Cher NdourRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.15

Como

Form DWWWL

League ranking xG #3xGA #11xT #4xP/match #11Points #7

Key players

Anastasios DouvikasFxG 0.62 · xT -0.11
Nico PazCMxG 0.34 · xT 0.19
Assane DiaoRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Fiorentina – Como

Predicted score matrix

Como →

Fiorentina →

0–05.4%

0–19.3%

0–29.1%

0–35.8%

0–4+4.2%

1–05.2%

1–110.7%

1–29.9%

1–36.3%

1–4+4.6%

2–03.0%

2–15.7%

2–25.4%

2–33.4%

2–4+2.5%

3–01.1%

3–12.0%

3–21.9%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-29%
5.1-36%

Expected goals

1,09–1,90

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.22

Over 2,557%

@1.68

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Como to win54%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Como to win54%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Assane Diao Diaoune to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Assane Diao Diaoune to score32%
Luis Milla Manzanares to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Como54% probability@2.12LeoVegasEV+13%reference odds
2 · Como54% probability@2.05BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
2 · Como54% probability@2.05NordicbetEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Fiorentina	X	2 · Como
Betsafe	3.35	3.65	EV+ 10% 2.05
LeoVegas	3.25	3.55	EV+ 13% 2.12
Nordicbet	3.35	3.70	EV+ 10% 2.05

Odds updated 10 Oct, 09:39

Odds movement

10 %

31 %26 %

3.35 → 3.35

X+1 %

28 %23 %

3.65 → 3.70

2-1 %

48 %43 %

2.08 → 2.05

Over 2,50 %

59 %54 %

1.68 → 1.68

Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 10/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Fiorentina 2Draw 0Como 2

Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fiorentina

Como

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fiorentina (2–10)

Como (9–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fiorentina

Como

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fiorentina

Como

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fiorentina	Como
Points	1	10
xPoints	4.7	6.9
xG per match	1.1	2.1
xGA per match	1.7	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.38	0.22

Playing style	Fiorentina	Como
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.47	0.69
xT per match	1.1	1.3
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	21	25
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.3
Entries into the box per match	12	19
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.75	0.85
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.79
Passes per match	320	535
Passes against per match	424	303
Switches of play per match	16.1	27.2
Long balls per match	26	30

Set pieces	Fiorentina	Como
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	4.5	8
Corners against per match	4.3	3.8
xG per corner	0.04	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.41	0.42

Other	Fiorentina	Como
Throw-in control	0.65	0.78

The goalkeepers	David De Gea (Fiorentina)	Jean Butez (Como)
Saves	13	8
Save %	56%	62%
xG prevented	34%	62%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Fiorentina

Fixtures, form & tips

Como

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fiorentina vs Como according to our model?

The model gives Como a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fiorentina 23%, draw 23%, Como 54%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Fiorentina vs Como?

The model expects 1.09 goals (xG) for Fiorentina and 1.90 for Como, 2.99 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Fiorentina or draw (1X) 46%, Como or draw (X2) 77% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.