01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Frosinone or draw (1X)71%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Serie AStadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone16°6 km/h
Läs på svenska
FrosinoneLow block & directvs
SassuoloPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Frosinone (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.60 (+12 %)
Frosinone vs Sassuolo · Serie A
1 · Frosinone 36%X 31%33% Sassuolo · 2
36%
31%
33%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Frosinone vs Sassuolo (Serie A, Friday, 16 October 2026): Frosinone win 36%, draw 31%, Sassuolo win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Frosinone 1.70, Sassuolo 1.29. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Frosinone or draw 67%, Sassuolo or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Frosinone – Sassuolo
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Frosinone's approach is straightforward and direct, contrasting sharply with Sassuolo's possession-based, high-press style. While Sassuolo tends to control possession, Frosinone's own defensive vulnerabilities (reflected in its low-defence style and higher xGA) could leave it open to being exploited on the counter. The xG figures, with Frosinone at 1.4 and Sassuolo slightly higher at 1.6, suggest both teams will have opportunities, yet neither side dominates significantly.
Despite Frosinone's current advantage in the points table, Sassuolo's underlying metrics—such as xPoints and xGA—indicate they might be the slightly more disciplined side defensively. This makes under 3.5 goals a prudent play, given the 65% model rating and the slight 3% edge at 1.58 odds with LeoVegas. Though the over 2.5 goals seems likely at 57%, the under 2.5 market at odds of 2.375 offers a slim value, albeit with just a 1% margin.
Expect a tight match where a narrow result is most probable. With both sides having their strengths and weaknesses, the draw stands out as the sharp angle, particularly with the attractive odds available. As always, it's the methodical, well-reasoned bets that settle the accounts—this time, the draw could just be the play to do that.
FrosinoneForm LWWDW
League ranking xG #10xGA #15xT #14xP/match #10Points #5
Key players
- Antonio RaimondoFxG 0.56 · xT 0.02
- Fares GhedjemisRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.10
- Seydou FiniRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
SassuoloForm LWDWL
League ranking xG #5xGA #10xT #9xP/match #6Points #10
Key players
- Domenico BerardiRWxG 0.45 · xT 0.02
- Cristian VolpatoRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.14
- Nemanja MatićCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Frosinone – Sassuolo
Predicted score matrix
Sassuolo →
Frosinone →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–16.2%
0–24.2%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–08.2%
1–111.4%
1–27.1%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.2%
2–19.4%
2–26.1%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–04.1%
3–15.3%
3–23.4%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.5%
4+–13.3%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.2-07%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,70–1,29
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.47EV+5%
Over 2,557%
@1.56
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Frosinone or draw (1X)71%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Antonio Raimondo to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Antonio Raimondo to score24%
- Fedde Leysen to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw31% probability@3.60LeoVegasEV+12%reference odds
- X · Draw31% probability@3.55BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
- X · Draw31% probability@3.55NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Frosinone | X | 2 · Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.42 | EV+ 10% 3.55 | 2.75 |
| LeoVegas | 2.40 | EV+ 12% 3.60 | 2.75 |
| Nordicbet | 2.42 | EV+ 10% 3.55 | 2.78 |
Odds updated 10 Oct, 09:38
Odds movement
10 %
42 %37 %
2.40 → 2.40
X0 %
29 %24 %
3.60 → 3.60
2+2 %
37 %32 %
2.70 → 2.75
Over 2,5+2 %
63 %58 %
1.52 → 1.55
LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 09/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Frosinone
Sassuolo
Frosinone (9–4)
Sassuolo (9–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Frosinone
Sassuolo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Frosinone
Sassuolo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Frosinone | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 7 |
| xPoints | 6.9 | 7.8 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.41 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Frosinone | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 0.85 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.66 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.6 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 204 | 403 |
| Passes against per match | 330 | 464 |
| Switches of play per match | 11.9 | 25.4 |
| Long balls per match | 21 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Frosinone | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 7.4 | 6.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| Other | Frosinone | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Lorenzo Palmisani (Frosinone) | Arijanet Anan Murić (Sassuolo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 22 |
| Save % | 84% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 65% | 43% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Frosinone vs Sassuolo according to our model?
The model gives Frosinone a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Frosinone 36%, draw 31%, Sassuolo 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Frosinone vs Sassuolo?
The model expects 1.70 goals (xG) for Frosinone and 1.29 for Sassuolo, 2.99 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Frosinone or draw (1X) 67%, Sassuolo or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 69%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.