01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Napoli or draw (X2)69%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Serie AStadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venezia16°7 km/h
Läs på svenska
VeneziaPossession controlvs
NapoliBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Napoli (45%)Best value by the model: 1 · Venezia @ 4.70 (+54 %)
Venezia vs Napoli · Serie A
1 · Venezia 33%X 23%45% Napoli · 2
33%
23%
45%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Venezia vs Napoli (Serie A, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Venezia win 33%, draw 23%, Napoli win 45%. Expected goals (xG): Venezia 1.49, Napoli 1.86. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. Double chance: Venezia or draw 55%, Napoli or draw 67%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
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Analysis: Venezia – Napoli
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The head-to-head record between these two sides is limited, with only two matches since 2021. In that small sample, Napoli have had the upper hand, winning one and drawing the other. While such a limited history might not tell the full story, current form and metrics do. Venezia have been in a slump, losing their last five games, which puts them in a precarious position. The visitors, meanwhile, come into this match with an impressive streak, having scored in eight consecutive league fixtures. This momentum and their balanced, physical style make Napoli the favorites.
Despite their struggles, Venezia play with a possession-oriented approach. This style aims to control the game and could stifle Napoli's rhythm, but the visitors' physicality is likely to test the hosts' defensive frailties. Venezia's xG and xGA figures point to vulnerabilities at the back, conceding an average of 1.8 expected goals per game, compared to Napoli's 1.4. The numbers suggest a tight contest, with the model highlighting 1-1 and 1-2 as the most probable scorelines.
The expected goals data supports the notion of a competitive yet goal-heavy encounter. With both teams having an xG around 1.6 per match, and the over 2.5 goals probability at 65%, the odds lean toward a match with plenty of scoring chances. It's worth noting that both teams to score sits at 66%, indicating a high likelihood that neither side will keep a clean sheet.
For bettors, the sharp angle lies in the over markets. LeoVegas offers over 3.5 goals at 2.6 odds, with the model seeing it at 43% probability, providing a 12% edge. There's also a smaller edge in the over 2.5 market at 1.667 odds. While Venezia's current form is troubling, the odds present value for those looking to back goals in this fixture.
VeneziaForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #17xT #13xP/match #16Points #20
Key players
- John Yeboah ZamoraRWxG 0.36 · xT 0.10
- Antoine HainautRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.33
- Enrique Pérez MuñozCAMxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
NapoliForm WLLWD
League ranking xG #6xGA #9xT #7xP/match #7Points #9
Key players
- Rasmus HojlundFxG 0.29 · xT -0.03
- Amir RrahmaniCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.02
- Giovanni Di LorenzoRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: Venezia – Napoli
Predicted score matrix
Napoli →
Venezia →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.8%
0–16.3%
0–26.1%
0–33.8%
0–4+2.7%
1
1–04.9%
1–110.0%
1–29.1%
1–35.6%
1–4+4.0%
2
2–03.9%
2–17.2%
2–26.7%
2–34.2%
2–4+3.0%
3
3–01.9%
3–13.6%
3–23.3%
3–32.1%
3–4+1.5%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.9%
4+–21.7%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.8%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-17%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.0-16%
Expected goals
1,49–1,86
Both teams to score
66%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+25%
Under 2,535%
@2.13
Over 2,565%
@1.73EV+13%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Napoli or draw (X2)69%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Rasmus Winther Højlund to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score66%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Rasmus Winther Højlund to score24%
- Stanislav Lobotka to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Venezia33% probability@4.70NordicbetEV+54%reference odds
- 1 · Venezia33% probability@4.65BetsafeEV+52%reference odds
- 1 · Venezia33% probability@4.60LeoVegasEV+51%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Venezia | X | 2 · Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 52% 4.65 | 3.90 | 1.70 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 51% 4.60 | 3.95 | 1.70 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 54% 4.70 | 3.95 | 1.70 |
Odds updated 10 Oct, 09:39
Odds movement
10 %
23 %18 %
4.70 → 4.70
X+1 %
27 %22 %
3.90 → 3.95
2-1 %
58 %53 %
1.72 → 1.70
Over 2,5+1 %
58 %53 %
1.72 → 1.73
Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 10/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesVenezia 0Draw 1Napoli 1
Goals: 0–1 (⌀ 0,5)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- Venezia have lost 5 in a row.
- Napoli have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Venezia
Napoli
Venezia (2–7)
Napoli (7–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Venezia
Napoli
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Venezia
Napoli
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Venezia | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 7 |
| xPoints | 3.1 | 7.7 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.3 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.54 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Venezia | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 0.89 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 387 | 418 |
| Passes against per match | 264 | 425 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.5 | 34.3 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Venezia | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3.3 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 3.3 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.65 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.65 |
| Other | Venezia | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Filip Stanković (Venezia) | Alex Meret (Napoli) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 11 |
| Save % | 65% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 30% | 29% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Venezia vs Napoli according to our model?
The model gives Napoli a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Venezia 33%, draw 23%, Napoli 45%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Venezia vs Napoli?
The model expects 1.49 goals (xG) for Venezia and 1.86 for Napoli, 3.35 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Venezia or draw (1X) 55%, Napoli or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.