01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Udinese to win57%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Serie ABluenergy Stadium, Udine15°11 km/h
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UdineseBalanced & physicalvs
LecceLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Udinese (57%)
Udinese vs Lecce · Serie A
1 · Udinese 57%X 24%19% Lecce · 2
57%
24%
19%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Udinese vs Lecce (Serie A, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Udinese win 57%, draw 24%, Lecce win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Udinese 1.72, Lecce 1.04. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Udinese or draw 81%, Lecce or draw 43%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
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Analysis: Udinese – Lecce
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Udinese enters this duel with a 57% model probability of victory, suggesting a clearer edge than the league table implies. Despite three consecutive losses, they remain statistically superior in expected metrics—boasting 6.1 xPoints and a 1.72 expected goals tally against Lecce's 1.04. The hosts also dominate the small head-to-head sample since 2021, winning three out of four encounters. These facts converge to favor Udinese, particularly given their more balanced and physical style, which may exploit Lecce's direct but vulnerable approach.
The model leans towards a 1-1 draw as the most probable scoreline at 12%, closely followed by a 1-0 win for Udinese at 11%. The over 2.5 goals probability sits slightly above even at 52%, suggesting a marginal tilt towards the over rather than the under. Udinese's physical edge and Lecce's direct approach point to a tight affair, and with both teams to score hovering at just over half, goals from both sides remain a real possibility.
For bettors, LeoVegas offers an enticing 1.88 on a home win, presenting a 7% value edge according to the model. This figure underscores Udinese's statistical strength, making it the sharpest angle in a matchup otherwise poised for a potentially slender margin.
UdineseForm DWLLL
League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #6xP/match #14Points #13
Key players
- Idrissa GueyeFxG 0.58 · xT -0.02
- Mërgim VojvodaRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.22
- Hassane KamaraLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.11
LecceForm WLLWL
League ranking xG #15xGA #20xT #17xP/match #18Points #11
Key players
- Lassana CoulibalyCMxG 0.22 · xT 0.00
- Santiago PierottiRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.07
- Danilo VeigaRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.17
Match prediction: Udinese – Lecce
Predicted score matrix
Lecce →
Udinese →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.7%
0–16.3%
0–23.4%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–010.6%
1–111.7%
1–25.9%
1–32.0%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.4%
2–19.7%
2–25.0%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–05.4%
3–15.6%
3–22.9%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–03.4%
4+–13.5%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,72–1,04
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@1.86
Over 2,552%
@1.96EV+2%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Udinese to win57%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Keinan Vincent Joseph Davis to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Keinan Vincent Joseph Davis to score24%
- Jamil Siebert to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Udinese57% probability@1.88LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
- 1 · Udinese57% probability@1.88NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
- 1 · Udinese57% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Udinese | X | 2 · Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.30 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 7% 1.88 | 3.55 | 4.00 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 7% 1.88 | 3.50 | 4.30 |
Odds updated 10 Oct, 09:39
Odds movement
10 %
53 %48 %
1.88 → 1.88
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.50 → 3.50
20 %
25 %20 %
4.30 → 4.30
Over 2,5-1 %
51 %46 %
1.97 → 1.96
Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 10/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesUdinese 3Draw 0Lecce 1
Goals: 6–4 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- Udinese Calcio have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Udinese
Lecce
Udinese (8–11)
Lecce (5–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Udinese
Lecce
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Udinese
Lecce
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Udinese | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 6 |
| xPoints | 6.1 | 4.6 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| Playing style | Udinese | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.3 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.71 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 363 | 282 |
| Passes against per match | 452 | 497 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.9 | 15.9 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Udinese | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| Corners against per match | 6.4 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| Other | Udinese | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| The goalkeepers | Maduka Okoye (Udinese) | Wladimiro Falcone (Lecce) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 27 |
| Save % | 66% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 54% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Udinese vs Lecce according to our model?
The model gives Udinese a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Udinese 57%, draw 24%, Lecce 19%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Udinese vs Lecce?
The model expects 1.72 goals (xG) for Udinese and 1.04 for Lecce, 2.75 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Udinese or draw (1X) 81%, Lecce or draw (X2) 43% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.