Roma vs Genoa Prediction: Home win 81% (17 Oct 2026)

Serie A17 October 2026Stadio Olimpico, Roma16°7 km/h

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RomaPossession & high press

GenoaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Roma (81%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.75 (+45 %)

1 · Roma 81%X 12%6% Genoa · 2

81%

12%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Roma vs Genoa (Serie A, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Roma win 81%, draw 12%, Genoa win 6%. Expected goals (xG): Roma 2.88, Genoa 0.78. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Roma or draw 94%, Genoa or draw 19%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

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Analysis: Roma – Genoa

Erik Lindberg · 10 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Roma's fortress at the Stadio Olimpico looks set to stand firm against a struggling Genoa side. With the hosts enjoying an unbeaten streak of 12 league matches and scoring in 20 consecutive games, the numbers heavily favor them. Their expected goals tally of 2.88 dwarfs Genoa's 0.78, setting up a one-sided affair where defensive solidity meets attacking prowess.

The model paints a picture of dominance, assigning Roma an 81% chance of victory. While the historical head-to-head is sparse—just four matches since 2021—Roma hold the advantage with two wins. But it's their current form and statistical superiority that truly tip the scales. The most likely scorelines, 2-0 or 3-0, underline this imbalance.

Genoa's physicality and balance might trouble less organized sides, but against Roma's high press and possession game, they seem set to struggle. With a paltry 1 point compared to Roma's 13, and xPoints of 6.6 against Roma's 11.5, the visitors face an uphill battle. Their xGA of 1.2 further suggests vulnerabilities that Roma's attack is well-placed to exploit.

With a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals, the game's flow leans towards a high-scoring outcome. Yet, the betting value is most striking in the over 3.5 goals market at odds of 2.5 with LeoVegas, offering a 24% edge according to the model. For those leaning more conservatively, the over 2.5 at 1.6 offers a 13% advantage, while backing a home win at 1.333 still carries an 8% edge.

Banking on Roma's steadfast form appears prudent. Whether chasing goals or a straightforward home win, the metrics point to the hosts asserting their dominance, with a clean 2-0 or 3-0 victory on the cards.

Roma

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Matias SouleLWxG 0.60 · xT 0.32
Donyell MalenFxG 1.28 · xT 0.13
Paulo DybalaRWxG 0.38 · xT 0.56

Genoa

Form LLLDL

League ranking xG #19xGA #5xT #20xP/match #12Points #18

Key players

Morten FrendrupCMxG 0.03 · xT -0.01
Johan VasquezCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
Leo OstigardCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: Roma – Genoa

Predicted score matrix

Genoa →

Roma →

0–02.7%

0–11.8%

0–20.8%

0–30.2%

0–4+0.0%

1–07.2%

1–16.0%

1–22.3%

1–30.6%

1–4+0.1%

2–010.7%

2–18.3%

2–23.3%

2–30.8%

2–4+0.2%

3–010.2%

3–18.0%

3–23.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–014.9%

4+–111.6%

4+–24.5%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.3-010%
3.2-18%
4.3-18%
5.4-07%

Expected goals

2,88–0,78

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,7

19%

217%

321%

419%

5+30%

Under 2,529%

@2.26

Over 2,571%

@1.65EV+17%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Roma to win81%
Over 1.5 goals88%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Roma to win81%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Donyell Malen to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Donyell Malen to score40%
Morten Wetche Frendrup to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.530% probability@4.75BetsafeEV+45%reference odds
Over 4.530% probability@4.75NordicbetEV+45%reference odds
Over 3.550% probability@2.61BetsafeEV+30%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Roma	X	2 · Genoa
Betsafe	EV+ 9% 1.35	4.75	9.60
LeoVegas	EV+ 8% 1.33	5.25	8.00
Nordicbet	EV+ 9% 1.35	4.80	9.70

Odds updated 10 Oct, 09:39

Odds movement

10 %

73 %68 %

1.35 → 1.35

X0 %

22 %17 %

4.80 → 4.80

2-1 %

12 %7 %

9.80 → 9.70

Over 2,50 %

60 %55 %

1.65 → 1.65

Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 10/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Roma 2Draw 1Genoa 1

Goals: 8–5 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

Key facts

AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 12 league matches.
AS Roma have scored in 20 consecutive league matches.
AS Roma win 62% of their home matches all-time (98 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Roma

Genoa

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Roma (14–3)

Genoa (3–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Roma

Genoa

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Roma

Genoa

The teams in numbers

Performance	Roma	Genoa
Points	13	1
xPoints	11.5	6.6
xG per match	2.8	0.83
xGA per match	0.75	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.87	0.07
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.09	0.23

Playing style	Roma	Genoa
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.27
Field tilt	0.71	0.35
xT per match	2.1	0.46
xTA per match	0.66	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	33	21
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.24
Entries into the box per match	24	8
Entries into the box against	8	15
Pass completion %	0.82	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.73
Passes per match	479	353
Passes against per match	330	400
Switches of play per match	36.5	17.8
Long balls per match	34	22

Set pieces	Roma	Genoa
xG from free kicks	0	0.01
Corners per match	5.8	5
Corners against per match	1.8	4.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.14	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.66	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.44	0.46

Other	Roma	Genoa
Throw-in control	0.71	0.67

The goalkeepers	Mile Svilar (Roma)	Justin Bijlow (Genoa)
Saves	14	13
Save %	82%	56%
xG prevented	74%	35%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Roma

Fixtures, form & tips

Genoa

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Roma vs Genoa according to our model?

The model gives Roma a 81% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Roma 81%, draw 12%, Genoa 6%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 71% and under at 29%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Roma vs Genoa?

The model expects 2.88 goals (xG) for Roma and 0.78 for Genoa, 3.66 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Roma or draw (1X) 94%, Genoa or draw (X2) 19% and no draw (12) 88%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.