Benevento vs Cesena Prediction: Home win 47% (10 Oct 2026)

Serie B10 October 2026Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento19°1,5 mm10 km/h

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BeneventoBalanced & physical

CesenaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Benevento (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · Cesena @ 3.85 (+7 %)

1 · Benevento 47%X 25%28% Cesena · 2

47%

25%

28%

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Analysis: Benevento – Cesena

Oscar Nilsson · 2 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Cesena's unbeaten run over five league games adds an intriguing layer to this clash. The model gives Benevento a 47% win probability, which signals them as favorites; however, the value here appears with the visitors, priced at 3.75 with LeoVegas. The model's 28% win probability for Cesena suggests an edge of 4%, making this an attractive option for those seeking value.

Benevento's expected goals sit at 1.55 compared to Cesena's 1.31, hinting at a slight offensive edge for the hosts. However, Cesena's staunch defense, conceding an xGA of 0.99 per match, could neutralize Benevento's physical approach. Both sides average 1.1 xG per match, yet the hosts generate more xG shortly after winning possession, which could prove decisive.

The most likely scorelines — 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0 — suggest a tight contest, emphasizing low margins. With a 55% chance for over 2.5 goals, the game leans towards a higher-scoring affair. The balance of probabilities and expected goals indicates a 1-1 draw as the likeliest outcome. However, considering the betting value, Cesena's unbeaten streak, and defensive strength, backing them at 3.75 offers a compelling opportunity.

Benevento

Form LDLWW

League ranking xG #10xGA #13xT #14xP/match #11Points #6

Key players

Francesco Paolo SalveminiFxG 0.36 · xT 0.00
Mattia MaitaCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
Marco TumminelloFxG 0.29 · xT 0.02

Cesena

Form DWDDD

League ranking xG #13xGA #3xT #18xP/match #5Points #10

Key players

Cristian ShpendiFxG 0.46 · xT 0.03
Andrea CiofiRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
Dimitri BisoliRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Benevento – Cesena

Predicted score matrix

Cesena →

Benevento →

0–06.0%

0–17.1%

0–24.9%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.9%

1–08.5%

1–112.0%

1–27.6%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.9%

2–19.0%

2–25.9%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.6%

3–14.7%

3–23.1%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,55–1,31

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@1.92

Over 2,555%

@1.78

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Benevento to win47%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Benevento to win47%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Francesco Paolo Salvemini to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Francesco Paolo Salvemini to score28%
Mihajlo Ilić to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Cesena28% probability@3.85BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
2 · Cesena28% probability@3.85NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
2 · Cesena28% probability@3.75LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Benevento	X	2 · Cesena
Betsafe	1.85	3.40	EV+ 7% 3.85
LeoVegas	1.85	3.40	EV+ 4% 3.75
Nordicbet	1.85	3.40	EV+ 7% 3.85

Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36

Statistics

Key facts

Cesena FC are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Benevento

Cesena

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Benevento (6–5)

Cesena (7–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Benevento

Cesena

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Benevento

Cesena

The teams in numbers

Performance	Benevento	Cesena
Points	7	7
xPoints	6.5	8.1
xG per match	1.1	1.1
xGA per match	1.2	0.99
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.04	0.16

Playing style	Benevento	Cesena
Build-up efficiency	0.25	0.32
Field tilt	0.5	0.39
xT per match	0.78	0.6
xTA per match	0.94	0.79
Won balls, offensive half	21	19
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.17
Entries into the box per match	12	10
Entries into the box against	10	15
Pass completion %	0.79	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.69
Passes per match	349	342
Passes against per match	372	442
Switches of play per match	30.2	31.4
Long balls per match	32	36

Set pieces	Benevento	Cesena
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.07
Corners per match	6.2	3.8
Corners against per match	6.4	6.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.61

Other	Benevento	Cesena
Throw-in control	0.68	0.78

The goalkeepers	Gianmarco Vannucchi (Benevento)	Alessandro Siano (Cesena)
Saves	11	18
Save %	69%	75%
xG prevented	40%	73%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Benevento

Fixtures, form & tips

Cesena

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Benevento vs Cesena according to our model?

The model gives Benevento a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Benevento 47%, draw 25%, Cesena 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.