01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Modena or draw (1X)67%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Serie BStadio Alberto Braglia, Modena20°9 km/h
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ModenaPossession & high pressvs
Hellas VeronaPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Modena (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Hellas Verona @ 3.98 (+29 %)
Modena vs Hellas Verona · Serie B
1 · Modena 39%X 29%32% Hellas Verona · 2
39%
29%
32%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Modena – Hellas Verona
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The numbers suggest a narrow edge for Modena, but the real question is whether this translates into goals or a stalemate. Modena, with 10 points on the board, leads Verona by three, yet the visitors have a slight advantage in expected points. Verona's xG per match at 2.1 is notably higher than Modena's 1.5, suggesting an attacking potency that the home side might struggle to contain.
Despite Verona's superior xG, Modena's defensive numbers, allowing only 0.74 xGA per match, hint at their ability to neutralize threats. This could be crucial in a match where both teams favor possession football. Modena's high press might disrupt Verona's control game, potentially forcing errors and creating opportunities. Yet, Verona’s resilience in turning possession into chances cannot be overlooked.
A 1-1 scoreline emerges as the most probable outcome, reflecting a balance between Modena's defensive solidity and Verona's attacking flair. The model gives a 13% chance for this result, slightly ahead of Modena winning 1-0 at 10%. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals sits just under 50%, suggesting a cautious lean towards a lower-scoring match.
The form book shows Modena ahead, but the expected goals tell a different story, indicating that Verona could spring a surprise. It doesn't erase Verona's potential to convert possession into goals, even against Modena's stingy defense.
For bettors, Modena’s win probability at 39% offers value at odds of around 2.56. This, however, is less a guarantee than an assessment of the balance between Modena’s structured defense and Verona’s capacity to generate chances. In a game poised on the knife-edge of tactical precision, that might be the sharpest angle to play.
ModenaForm WWLDW
League ranking xG #4xGA #1xT #2xP/match #3Points #4
Key players
- Giuseppe AmbrosinoFxG 0.32 · xT 0.19
- Simone SantoroCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.09
- Bryant NielingCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
Hellas VeronaForm LDWLW
League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #2Points #11
Key players
- Samuele MulattieriFxG 0.50 · xT 0.02
- Gabriele ZappaRBxG 0.28 · xT 0.26
- Amin SarrLWxG 0.39 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Modena – Hellas Verona
Predicted score matrix
Hellas Verona →
Modena →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.5%
0–18.5%
0–25.6%
0–32.3%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–09.5%
1–112.8%
1–27.8%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–06.9%
2–18.6%
2–25.4%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–03.2%
3–14.0%
3–22.5%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–11.9%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,39–1,25
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,607%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.78
Over 2,549%
@2.04EV+0%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Modena or draw (1X)67%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Giuseppe Ambrosino Di Bruttopilo to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Samuele Mulattieri to score22%
- Edoardo Iannoni to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Hellas Verona32% probability@3.98PinnacleEV+29%reference odds
- 2 · Hellas Verona32% probability@3.75BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
- 2 · Hellas Verona32% probability@3.75NordicbetEV+21%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Modena | X | 2 · Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.95 | 3.20 | EV+ 21% 3.75 |
| Nordicbet | 1.95 | 3.20 | EV+ 21% 3.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.35 | EV+ 29% 3.98 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Modena
Hellas Verona
Modena (8–4)
Hellas Verona (10–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Modena
Hellas Verona
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Modena
Hellas Verona
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Modena | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 7 |
| xPoints | 8.4 | 9.3 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.07 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Modena | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 422 | 434 |
| Passes against per match | 345 | 286 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.8 | 34.1 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Modena | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 2.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.69 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.5 |
| Other | Modena | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Leandro Chichizola (Modena) | Nicola Leali (Hellas Verona) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 10 |
| Save % | 75% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 58% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Modena vs Hellas Verona according to our model?
The model gives Modena a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Modena 39%, draw 29%, Hellas Verona 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.