Arezzo vs Cremonese Prediction: Away win 54% (10 Oct 2026)

Serie B10 October 202618°1,5 mm11 km/h

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ArezzoBalanced & physical

CremonesePossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Cremonese (54%)

1 · Arezzo 20%X 26%54% Cremonese · 2

20%

26%

54%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Arezzo – Cremonese

Marcus Johansson · 2 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Arezzo's balanced and physical approach will meet the possession-oriented, high-pressing style of Cremonese, setting the stage for an intriguing tactical battle. The visitors come in as favorites with a 54% chance of taking the victory, despite Arezzo’s slight edge in actual points (6 vs 5). The expected goals also tilt towards Cremonese, who boast a higher xG per match at 1.1 compared to Arezzo's 1.0. However, it's worth noting that Arezzo can capitalize on their physicality, especially if Cremonese's high press leaves gaps to exploit.

The defensive numbers paint a clearer picture of potential dominance. Cremonese's xGA of 1.1 per match significantly outshines Arezzo's 1.7, suggesting that the visitors are more likely to control the game and limit Arezzo's chances. Yet, the model's most probable outcomes, such as a 1-1 draw, imply that Arezzo might still find opportunities to score, even against a tighter backline.

While the over/under 2.5 goals market sits nearly evenly split at 49%, a low-scoring affair feels more plausible given the expected tactical setups. Cremonese's possession game could stifle Arezzo's attacking intentions, potentially resulting in a 0-1 or 1-1 scoreline. The model's expected goals align with this, indicating a slight lean towards a more conservative total.

LeoVegas offers a tempting 2.4 odds for a Cremonese win, which holds a 30% edge according to the model. This value suggests that siding with the visitors presents a profitable opportunity. While not a certainty, the numbers favor Cremonese squeezing out a narrow win, perhaps solidifying a 0-1 result.

Arezzo

Form WLLWL

League ranking xG #14xGA #19xT #10xP/match #15Points #13

Key players

Pietro CianciFxG 0.35 · xT 0.02
Alessandro ArenaRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.13
Artur IoniţăLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.10

Cremonese

Form LLWDD

League ranking xG #12xGA #6xT #7xP/match #18Points #15

Key players

Federico BonazzoliRWxG 0.65 · xT 0.02
Fabio GerliCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
Matteo BianchettiCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Arezzo – Cremonese

Predicted score matrix

Cremonese →

Arezzo →

0–07.5%

0–111.1%

0–29.2%

0–35.0%

0–4+2.9%

1–07.0%

1–112.2%

1–29.5%

1–35.1%

1–4+2.9%

2–03.8%

2–16.1%

2–24.9%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.5%

3–01.3%

3–12.1%

3–21.7%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-111%
3.1-210%
4.0-29%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,03–1,61

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.70

Over 2,549%

@2.05EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Cremonese to win54%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Cremonese to win54%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Manuel De Luca to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Manuel De Luca to score28%
Alberto Grassi to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Cremonese54% probability@2.42BetsafeEV+31%reference odds
2 · Cremonese54% probability@2.42NordicbetEV+31%reference odds
2 · Cremonese54% probability@2.38LeoVegasEV+29%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Arezzo	X	2 · Cremonese
Betsafe	2.85	3.05	EV+ 31% 2.42
LeoVegas	2.80	3.10	EV+ 29% 2.38
Nordicbet	2.85	3.05	EV+ 31% 2.42

Odds updated 2 Oct, 16:36

Odds movement

10 %

35 %30 %

2.80 → 2.80

X0 %

32 %27 %

3.10 → 3.10

2-1 %

41 %36 %

2.40 → 2.38

Over 2,5-1 %

49 %44 %

1.98 → 1.95

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 02/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Arezzo

Cremonese

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Arezzo (6–13)

Cremonese (5–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Arezzo

Cremonese

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Arezzo

Cremonese

The teams in numbers

Performance	Arezzo	Cremonese
Points	6	5
xPoints	5.7	5.5
xG per match	1	1.1
xGA per match	1.7	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.08
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.43	0.31

Playing style	Arezzo	Cremonese
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.4	0.68
xT per match	0.93	1
xTA per match	1.1	0.45
Won balls, offensive half	22	29
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.25
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	12	7
Pass completion %	0.76	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.79
Passes per match	301	488
Passes against per match	440	329
Switches of play per match	35.5	32.8
Long balls per match	44	34

Set pieces	Arezzo	Cremonese
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.02
Corners per match	4.8	4.2
Corners against per match	3.8	3.4
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.68	0.53

Other	Arezzo	Cremonese
Throw-in control	0.68	0.71

The goalkeepers	Alessandro Nunziante (Arezzo)	Federico Agazzi (Cremonese)
Saves	13	10
Save %	50%	63%
xG prevented	24%	26%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Arezzo

Fixtures, form & tips

Cremonese

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Arezzo vs Cremonese according to our model?

The model gives Cremonese a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arezzo 20%, draw 26%, Cremonese 54%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.