Avellino vs Sampdoria Prediction: Away win 48% (9 Oct 2026)

Serie B9 October 2026Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino18°3,0 mm8 km/h

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AvellinoLow block & direct

SampdoriaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Sampdoria (48%)

1 · Avellino 26%X 26%48% Sampdoria · 2

26%

48%

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Analysis: Avellino – Sampdoria

Anna Karlsson · 2 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Sampdoria's high-press style meets Avellino's direct approach in a clash that feels tailored for tactical fireworks, yet the numbers suggest something more measured. Despite Avellino's slight edge in points, the underlying metrics favor the visitors. Sampdoria's xG of 1.3 per match overshadows Avellino's 0.81, hinting at more attacking teeth.

Sampdoria's model-backed probability of 48% to win, combined with a 1-2 or 0-1 scoreline as two of the most likely outcomes, underscores their advantage. Avellino has shown resilience, but their xGA of 1.4 implies a vulnerability that a possession-heavy Sampdoria can exploit. The small head-to-head sample of two matches (split evenly) doesn't weigh heavily here; form and expected goals carry more analytical weight.

Rain is forecasted, potentially dampening the match's tempo and goal-scoring opportunities, yet with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, a tight affair featuring goals from both sides remains likely. The model sees the visitors navigating the wet conditions more adeptly, as their press can disrupt Avellino's direct play, particularly on a slick pitch.

For those scanning the betting landscape, Sampdoria's odds of 2.45 with LeoVegas offer a tempting value. With a 17% edge against the bookies' evaluation, it's the standout bet in a match where balance tilts towards Sampdoria, likely sealing a narrow victory. Avoiding the allure of Avellino's home form, this is where the smart money finds its place.

Avellino

Form LWWDL

League ranking xG #19xGA #15xT #13xP/match #17Points #9

Key players

Raffaele RussoLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.22
Andrea FavilliFxG 0.13 · xT 0.02
Walid CheddiraFxG 0.32 · xT 0.09

Sampdoria

Form DLLLW

League ranking xG #6xGA #7xT #8xP/match #7Points #18

Key players

Gennaro TutinoFxG 0.25 · xT 0.03
Lorenzo InsigneLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.13
Tjas BegicLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Avellino – Sampdoria

Predicted score matrix

Sampdoria →

Avellino →

0–06.1%

0–18.7%

0–27.1%

0–33.7%

0–4+2.1%

1–07.1%

1–112.0%

1–29.1%

1–34.8%

1–4+2.6%

2–04.8%

2–17.5%

2–25.9%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.7%

3–02.0%

3–13.2%

3–22.5%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,29–1,57

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@1.82

Over 2,554%

@1.90EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sampdoria to win48%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sampdoria to win48%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Gennaro Tutino to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Gennaro Tutino to score29%
Stefan Gartenmann to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Sampdoria48% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
2 · Sampdoria48% probability@2.52NordicbetEV+20%reference odds
2 · Sampdoria48% probability@2.45LeoVegasEV+17%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Avellino	X	2 · Sampdoria
Betsafe	2.65	3.15	EV+ 20% 2.52
LeoVegas	2.65	3.15	EV+ 17% 2.45
Nordicbet	2.65	3.15	EV+ 20% 2.52

Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Avellino 1Draw 0Sampdoria 1

Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Avellino

Sampdoria

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Avellino (7–6)

Sampdoria (5–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Avellino

Sampdoria

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Avellino

Sampdoria

The teams in numbers

Performance	Avellino	Sampdoria
Points	7	4
xPoints	5.7	7.2
xG per match	0.81	1.3
xGA per match	1.4	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.42	0.17

Playing style	Avellino	Sampdoria
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.3
Field tilt	0.3	0.67
xT per match	0.84	1
xTA per match	1.2	0.69
Won balls, offensive half	16	28
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.24
Entries into the box per match	9	16
Entries into the box against	16	10
Pass completion %	0.78	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.71
Passes per match	327	370
Passes against per match	406	369
Switches of play per match	24.2	22.8
Long balls per match	36	26

Set pieces	Avellino	Sampdoria
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.03
Corners per match	2.6	5.6
Corners against per match	5.8	3.8
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.23	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.45	0.74

Other	Avellino	Sampdoria
Throw-in control	0.7	0.76

The goalkeepers	Tommaso Martinelli (Avellino)	Peter Vindahl Jensen (Sampdoria)
Saves	20	12
Save %	80%	60%
xG prevented	49%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Avellino

Fixtures, form & tips

Sampdoria

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Avellino vs Sampdoria according to our model?

The model gives Sampdoria a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Avellino 26%, draw 26%, Sampdoria 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.