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    FC ImabariFC Imabari
    vs
    Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare
    The model's lean: 2 · Shonan Bellmare (39%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.20 (+12 %)

    FC Imabari vs Shonan Bellmare · J2 League

    1 · FC Imabari 32%X 29%39% Shonan Bellmare · 2

    Analysis: FC Imabari – Shonan Bellmare

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    A razor-thin expected goals margin of 1.09 for Imabari against 1.10 for Shonan Bellmare sets the stage for a balanced clash. While the model slightly favors the visitors with a 39% win probability compared to the hosts' 32%, the chances of a draw stand at a close 29%. This parity is echoed in the most likely scorelines, with both 1-1 and 0-1 standing at 12-14%.

    The statistical deadlock extends to the goals market. The 38% probability for over 2.5 goals suggests a low-scoring affair, reinforced by a 45% chance for both teams to score. With 15.6 mm of rain predicted, conditions could further dampen attacking ambitions, depressing goal output. This is already factored into the numbers, meaning the weather's impact is priced in.

    The sharpest angle for bettors here lies with the visitors, given their slight edge in win probability. While betting is inherently volatile, the model sees value in Shonan Bellmare's chances. In a match where marginal differences could be decisive, that edge provides the clearest betting opportunity, set against a likely scoreline of either 1-1 or a narrow 0-1 victory for the away side.

    FC ImabariFC Imabari
    Form LLLDW
    Key players
    • Kengo FuruyamaRWxG 0.46 · xT 0.01
    • Hikaru AraiRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.15
    • Rei UmekiRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.06
    Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare
    Form WDDLW
    Key players
    • Shohei TakedaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.03
    • Yuto SuzukiRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
    • Sere MatsumuraLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.14

    Match prediction: FC Imabari – Shonan Bellmare

    Predicted score matrix

    Shonan Bellmare →
    FC Imabari →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–011.5%
    0–111.9%
    0–26.8%
    0–32.5%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–011.8%
    1–113.8%
    1–27.4%
    1–32.7%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–06.6%
    2–17.3%
    2–24.0%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–02.4%
    3–12.7%
    3–21.5%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–00.8%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.0-112%
    3. 3.1-012%
    4. 4.0-012%
    5. 5.1-27%
    Expected goals
    1,09–1,10
    Both teams to score
    45%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,2
    Under 2,562%
    @1.80EV+9%
    Over 2,538%
    @1.98

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Shonan Bellmare or draw (X2)65%
    • Under 3.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.86

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Shonan Bellmare or draw (X2)65%
    • Under 2.5 goals62%
    • Taiyo Nishino to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score45%
    • Over 2.5 goals38%
    • Taiyo Nishino to score24%
    • Gabriel Gomes Ferreira to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.535% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
    • Under 1.535% probability@3.20BetssonEV+12%reference odds
    • Under 1.535% probability@3.20NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · FC ImabariX2 · Shonan Bellmare
    Betsafe
    EV+ 0%
    3.10    		3.252.12
    Betsson
    EV+ 0%
    3.10    		3.252.12
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 0%
    3.10    		3.252.12
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 4%
    3.20    		3.362.17

    Odds updated 19 Sept, 15:59

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    FC Imabari
    Shonan Bellmare
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    FC Imabari (5–9)
    Shonan Bellmare (6–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    FC Imabari
    Kazuki Kushibiki: 227 passningar, xT 0.37KushibikiGabriel Gomes Ferreira: 158 passningar, xT 0.35FerreiraTakuhiro Nakai: 156 passningar, xT 0.01NakaiKenta Kikuchi: 151 passningar, xT 0.36KikuchiRei Umeki: 144 passningar, xT 0.31UmekiHikaru Arai: 124 passningar, xT 0.29AraiYoshiaki Komai: 115 passningar, xT 0.54KomaiYamato Maruyama: 78 passningar, xT 0.44MaruyamaHiroki Abe: 70 passningar, xT 0.19AbeKotaro Tachikawa: 69 passningar, xT 0.1TachikawaTaiga Son: 64 passningar, xT 0.06Son
    Shonan Bellmare
    Shohei Takeda: 209 passningar, xT 0.38TakedaKazuki Dohana: 196 passningar, xT 0.24DohanaSere Matsumura: 154 passningar, xT 0.76MatsumuraYuto Suzuki: 151 passningar, xT 0.25SuzukiYutaro Hakamata: 119 passningar, xT 0.41HakamataArthur Silva Feitoza: 90 passningar, xT 0.03FeitozaNaoki Kase: 85 passningar, xT 0.64KaseHiroya Matsumoto: 78 passningar, xT 0.15MatsumotoSoki Tamura: 76 passningar, xT 0.24TamuraYuta Fukazawa: 68 passningar, xT 0.09FukazawaHiroto Yamada: 62 passningar, xT -0.02Yamada
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    FC Imabari
    Kazuki Kushibiki: 227 passningar, xT 0.37KushibikiGabriel Gomes Ferreira: 158 passningar, xT 0.35FerreiraTakuhiro Nakai: 156 passningar, xT 0.01NakaiKenta Kikuchi: 151 passningar, xT 0.36KikuchiRei Umeki: 144 passningar, xT 0.31UmekiHikaru Arai: 124 passningar, xT 0.29AraiYoshiaki Komai: 115 passningar, xT 0.54KomaiYamato Maruyama: 78 passningar, xT 0.44MaruyamaHiroki Abe: 70 passningar, xT 0.19AbeKotaro Tachikawa: 69 passningar, xT 0.1TachikawaTaiga Son: 64 passningar, xT 0.06Son
    Shonan Bellmare
    Shohei Takeda: 209 passningar, xT 0.38TakedaKazuki Dohana: 196 passningar, xT 0.24DohanaSere Matsumura: 154 passningar, xT 0.76MatsumuraYuto Suzuki: 151 passningar, xT 0.25SuzukiYutaro Hakamata: 119 passningar, xT 0.41HakamataArthur Silva Feitoza: 90 passningar, xT 0.03FeitozaNaoki Kase: 85 passningar, xT 0.64KaseHiroya Matsumoto: 78 passningar, xT 0.15MatsumotoSoki Tamura: 76 passningar, xT 0.24TamuraYuta Fukazawa: 68 passningar, xT 0.09FukazawaHiroto Yamada: 62 passningar, xT -0.02Yamada
    The goalkeepersKotaro Tachikawa (FC Imabari)Kota Sanada (Shonan Bellmare)
    Saves924
    Save %50%86%
    xG prevented33%38%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    FC Imabari
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Shonan Bellmare
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins FC Imabari vs Shonan Bellmare according to our model?

    The model gives Shonan Bellmare a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Imabari 32%, draw 29%, Shonan Bellmare 39%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 38% and under at 62%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.