01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Oita Trinita or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals80%
J2 League23°8,8 mm3 km/h
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Oita Trinitavs
Fujieda MYFCThe model's lean: 1 · Oita Trinita (35%)Soft draw
Oita Trinita vs Fujieda MYFC · J2 League
1 · Oita Trinita 35%X 30%35% Fujieda MYFC · 2
35%
30%
35%
Analysis: Oita Trinita – Fujieda MYFC
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Oita Trinita's undefeated run against Fujieda MYFC is a notable feature of their recent encounters, yet it might not hold as much weight this time around. With five meetings since 2023, the sample size is modest, and both teams are evenly matched according to the current model probabilities: 35% chance of victory for each side and a 30% likelihood of a draw. This balance suggests that recent form and underlying numbers could override past head-to-head results.
The expected goals tell a story of a tight contest, with Oita edging slightly at 1.21 to Fujieda's 1.08. The model still leans towards the hosts in spite of the identical win probabilities, hinting at a marginal home advantage. However, for bettors hunting value, it's crucial to note the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 14%, followed closely by 1-0 and 0-1 outcomes. This aligns with the 40% probability for over 2.5 goals, indicating a potentially low-scoring match.
The analysis of both teams' current form might suggest a tactical matchup rather than an open affair. A 47% chance of both teams scoring doesn't scream offensive fireworks, and any deviation from a cautious approach could be pivotal. If either side finds an early goal, it might shift the dynamics considerably, but as it stands, conservative play seems probable.
A 1-1 draw seems the most fitting conclusion, with the under 2.5 goals market reflecting the cautious setup expected on match day. As always, it's about spotting where the numbers and odds diverge to find an edge.
Oita TrinitaForm DWLDD
Key players
- Matheus PereiraCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
- Shinya UtsumotoLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
- Kotaro ArimaFxG 0.35 · xT -0.01
Fujieda MYFCForm WLWDL
Key players
- Yusuke KikuiFxG 0.09 · xT 0.09
- Riyo KawamotoFxG 0.20 · xT 0.00
- Yuri MoriCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
Match prediction: Oita Trinita – Fujieda MYFC
Predicted score matrix
Fujieda MYFC →
Oita Trinita →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.5%
0–110.6%
0–25.9%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–011.8%
1–113.6%
1–27.2%
1–32.6%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–07.4%
2–18.0%
2–24.3%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–03.0%
3–13.2%
3–21.7%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.3%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-111%
- 4.0-011%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,21–1,08
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3011%
122%
227%
320%
412%
5+8%
Under 2,560%
@1.52
Over 2,540%
@2.32
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Oita Trinita or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals60%
- Hiroshi Kiyotake to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals40%
- Wigi Kanemoto to score22%
- Koya Hayashida to be booked19%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Oita Trinita | X | 2 · Fujieda MYFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.65 | 3.00 | 2.52 |
| Betsson | 2.65 | 3.00 | 2.52 |
| Nordicbet | 2.65 | 3.00 | 2.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.73 | 3.15 | 2.60 |
Odds updated 19 Sept, 15:59
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesOita Trinita 3Draw 2Fujieda MYFC 0
Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 1,6)
Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Oita Trinita dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Oita Trinita
Fujieda MYFC
Oita Trinita (5–4)
Fujieda MYFC (10–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Oita Trinita
Fujieda MYFC
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Oita Trinita
Fujieda MYFC
| The goalkeepers | Kyung Gun Mun (Oita Trinita) | Shun Yoshida (Fujieda MYFC) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 22 |
| Save % | 83% | 79% |
| xG prevented | 84% | 70% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Iwaki FC – Vegalta Sendai26 September 2026
- Blaublitz Akita – Albirex Niigata26 September 2026
- Montedio Yamagata – Sagan Tosu26 September 2026
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo26 September 2026
- Kataller Toyama – Yokohama FC26 September 2026
- Jubilo Iwata – Vanraure Hachinohe26 September 2026
- Tokushima Vortis – Tochigi City26 September 2026
- FC Imabari – Shonan Bellmare26 September 2026
- Omiya Ardija – Ventforet Kofu26 September 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Oita Trinita vs Fujieda MYFC according to our model?
The model gives Oita Trinita a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Oita Trinita 35%, draw 30%, Fujieda MYFC 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.