J2 League19°6,8 mm7 km/h

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    Iwaki FCIwaki FC
    vs
    Vegalta SendaiVegalta Sendai
    The model's lean: 2 · Vegalta Sendai (44%)

    Iwaki FC vs Vegalta Sendai · J2 League

    1 · Iwaki FC 24%X 32%44% Vegalta Sendai · 2

    Analysis: Iwaki FC – Vegalta Sendai

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Three consecutive losses paint a bleak picture for Iwaki FC. The hosts are struggling as they prepare to face Vegalta Sendai, who are unbeaten in their last five league matches. Despite the small sample size of four head-to-head meetings, Sendai's dominance is clear, winning three out of four encounters. This history, albeit limited, complements the current form disparity between the sides.

    Model probabilities lean towards Sendai with a 44% chance of victory, while Iwaki's chances sit notably lower at 24%. Expected goals further underscore the visitors' edge, at 1.17 compared to Iwaki's 0.98. The likelihood of a low-scoring match is high, with only a 36% chance of exceeding 2.5 goals. Weather conditions, featuring 5.0 mm of rain, may further dampen scoring opportunities, reinforcing the numbers. A 1-1 draw (14%) is marginally the most likely outcome, followed closely by a 0-1 away win (13%).

    For those seeking value, Sendai’s unbeaten streak and favorable model lean present an appealing angle for bettors, given Iwaki's current slump.

    Iwaki FCIwaki FC
    Form WWLLL
    Key players
    • Naoki KumataFxG 0.42 · xT 0.04
    • Shun NakajimaLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
    • Atsuki YamanakaLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.12
    Vegalta SendaiVegalta Sendai
    Form DWWWD
    Key players
    • Tsubasa UmekiFxG 0.38 · xT 0.07
    • Hidetoshi TakedaRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.09
    • Motohiko NakajimaLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.09

    Match prediction: Iwaki FC – Vegalta Sendai

    Predicted score matrix

    Vegalta Sendai →
    Iwaki FC →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–012.0%
    0–113.2%
    0–28.0%
    0–33.1%
    0–4+1.2%
    1
    1–011.0%
    1–113.7%
    1–27.8%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–05.6%
    2–16.6%
    2–23.8%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–01.8%
    3–12.1%
    3–21.3%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–00.6%
    4+–10.7%
    4+–20.4%
    4+–30.1%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.0-113%
    3. 3.0-012%
    4. 4.1-011%
    5. 5.0-28%
    Expected goals
    0,98–1,17
    Both teams to score
    44%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,2
    Under 2,564%
    –
    Over 2,536%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Vegalta Sendai or draw (X2)70%
    • Under 3.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.73

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Vegalta Sendai or draw (X2)70%
    • Under 2.5 goals64%
    • Ryunosuke Sagara to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score44%
    • Over 2.5 goals36%
    • Kanta Tanaka to score21%
    • Sosuke Shibata to be booked18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Iwaki FC 1Draw 0Vegalta Sendai 3
    Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Iwaki FC have lost 3 in a row.
    • Vegalta Sendai are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Iwaki FC
    Vegalta Sendai
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Iwaki FC (4–9)
    Vegalta Sendai (10–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Iwaki FC
    Wataru Iwashita: 147 passningar, xT 0.22IwashitaHaruto Nakano: 124 passningar, xT 0.27NakanoDaiki Yamaguchi: 94 passningar, xT 0.28YamaguchiSoichiro Fukaminato: 90 passningar, xT 0.52FukaminatoShota Kofie: 71 passningar, xT 0.91KofieMasato Sasaki: 66 passningar, xT 0.19SasakiRyo Nishitani: 61 passningar, xT 0.39NishitaniRyota Nagaki: 58 passningar, xT 0.2NagakiShun Nakajima: 57 passningar, xT 0.17NakajimaShuto Okaniwa: 51 passningar, xT 0.07OkaniwaKaito Fujii: 46 passningar, xT 0.13Fujii
    Vegalta Sendai
    Shion Inoue: 153 passningar, xT 0.47InoueMateus Moraes: 144 passningar, xT 0.52MoraesHayata Ishii: 131 passningar, xT 0.46IshiiRyota Takada: 115 passningar, xT 0.43TakadaHidetoshi Takeda: 97 passningar, xT 0.28TakedaYota Sugiyama: 92 passningar, xT 0.13SugiyamaMotohiko Nakajima: 81 passningar, xT 0.36NakajimaRenji Matsui: 74 passningar, xT 0.19MatsuiHiromu Kamada: 72 passningar, xT 0.12KamadaAkihiro Hayashi: 69 passningar, xT 0.21HayashiShunta Araki: 66 passningar, xT 0.07Araki
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Iwaki FC
    Wataru Iwashita: 147 passningar, xT 0.22IwashitaHaruto Nakano: 124 passningar, xT 0.27NakanoDaiki Yamaguchi: 94 passningar, xT 0.28YamaguchiSoichiro Fukaminato: 90 passningar, xT 0.52FukaminatoShota Kofie: 71 passningar, xT 0.91KofieMasato Sasaki: 66 passningar, xT 0.19SasakiRyo Nishitani: 61 passningar, xT 0.39NishitaniRyota Nagaki: 58 passningar, xT 0.2NagakiShun Nakajima: 57 passningar, xT 0.17NakajimaShuto Okaniwa: 51 passningar, xT 0.07OkaniwaKaito Fujii: 46 passningar, xT 0.13Fujii
    Vegalta Sendai
    Shion Inoue: 153 passningar, xT 0.47InoueMateus Moraes: 144 passningar, xT 0.52MoraesHayata Ishii: 131 passningar, xT 0.46IshiiRyota Takada: 115 passningar, xT 0.43TakadaHidetoshi Takeda: 97 passningar, xT 0.28TakedaYota Sugiyama: 92 passningar, xT 0.13SugiyamaMotohiko Nakajima: 81 passningar, xT 0.36NakajimaRenji Matsui: 74 passningar, xT 0.19MatsuiHiromu Kamada: 72 passningar, xT 0.12KamadaAkihiro Hayashi: 69 passningar, xT 0.21HayashiShunta Araki: 66 passningar, xT 0.07Araki
    The goalkeepersMasato Sasaki (Iwaki FC)Akihiro Hayashi (Vegalta Sendai)
    Saves66
    Save %43%50%
    xG prevented17%28%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Iwaki FC
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Vegalta Sendai
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Iwaki FC vs Vegalta Sendai according to our model?

    The model gives Vegalta Sendai a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Iwaki FC 24%, draw 32%, Vegalta Sendai 44%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 36% and under at 64%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.