01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Kataller Toyama to win49%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
J2 League21°2,4 mm7 km/h
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Kataller Toyamavs
Yokohama FCThe model's lean: 1 · Kataller Toyama (49%)
Kataller Toyama vs Yokohama FC · J2 League
1 · Kataller Toyama 49%X 22%29% Yokohama FC · 2
49%
22%
29%
Analysis: Kataller Toyama – Yokohama FC
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Kataller Toyama's defense will be the focal point as they prepare to host Yokohama FC. Toyama's measured approach has kept them competitive in the J2 League, with a strong emphasis on defensive stability. Their model probability of 49% underscores their edge over the visitors, who sit at a 29% chance. While Yokohama can't be dismissed outright, the numbers tilt firmly toward the hosts.
The expected goals tell a story of cautious optimism for Toyama. With an expected tally of 1.64 compared to Yokohama's 1.33, the hosts have the offensive edge. However, the most likely scorelines—1-1 at 12% and 2-1 at 9%—suggest a close match. The potential for a 1-0 win at 8% further highlights the possibility of a low-scoring affair, especially given the predicted weather conditions. With 14.4 mm of rain expected, goal-scoring chances could be harder to come by, though this is already factored into the model.
Despite the rain, the over 2.5 goals probability sits at 57%, and a 60% chance of both teams finding the net. These figures indicate that goals are likely, even if the match isn't a high-scoring spectacle. The sample size of head-to-head meetings is small, which makes season form and expected goals more reliable indicators for this clash.
For those seeking value, the model's lean towards Toyama suggests an opportunity. The combination of defensive control and slight offensive superiority makes Toyama the prudent choice. Ending the evening with a disciplined 2-1 win seems a plausible outcome, one that aligns with both statistical insights and current form.
Kataller ToyamaForm WLWLW
Key players
- Tsubasa YoshihiraFxG 0.60 · xT 0.32
- Yoshiki TakahashiRWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.12
- Sota FukazawaCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.21
Yokohama FCForm WWLDW
Key players
- Kaili ShimboLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.25
- Lukian Araújo de AlmeidaFxG 0.46 · xT 0.05
- Akiyuki YokoyamaLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.00
Match prediction: Kataller Toyama – Yokohama FC
Predicted score matrix
Yokohama FC →
Kataller Toyama →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–16.5%
0–24.5%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–08.0%
1–111.5%
1–27.5%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.9%
2–19.2%
2–26.1%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–03.8%
3–15.0%
3–23.3%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–02.2%
4+–13.0%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,64–1,33
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.10
Over 2,557%
@1.70
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Kataller Toyama to win49%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Shimpei Nishiya to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Lukian Araújo de Almeida to score23%
- Hinata Ogura to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Kataller Toyama49% probability@2.70PinnacleEV+32%reference odds
- 1 · Kataller Toyama49% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+28%reference odds
- 1 · Kataller Toyama49% probability@2.62BetssonEV+28%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Kataller Toyama | X | 2 · Yokohama FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 28% 2.62 | 3.35 | 2.35 |
| Betsson | EV+ 28% 2.62 | 3.35 | 2.35 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 28% 2.62 | 3.35 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 32% 2.70 | 3.53 | 2.40 |
Odds updated 19 Sept, 15:59
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kataller Toyama
Yokohama FC
Kataller Toyama (7–5)
Yokohama FC (11–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kataller Toyama
Yokohama FC
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kataller Toyama
Yokohama FC
| The goalkeepers | Toshiki Hirao (Kataller Toyama) | Akinori Ichikawa (Yokohama FC) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 7 | 17 |
| Save % | 58% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 74% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kataller Toyama vs Yokohama FC according to our model?
The model gives Kataller Toyama a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kataller Toyama 49%, draw 22%, Yokohama FC 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.